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December 2020 General Discussion


Hoosier
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I had noticed the 12z RGEM brought in some light (around 1") accums to parts of northern IL late Thursday night into Friday morning. The models have been very consistent in a strong 700 mb vort wrapping around the stacked upper low, but main question has appeared to be available moisture. Tonight's 00z NAM showing some light QPF with this feature, so things might be trending toward getting a DAB+ down for Christmas morning.

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13 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I had noticed the 12z RGEM brought in some light (around 1") accums to parts of northern IL late Thursday night into Friday morning. The models have been very consistent in a strong 700 mb vort wrapping around the stacked upper low, but main question has appeared to be available moisture. Tonight's 00z NAM showing some light QPF with this feature, so things might be trending toward getting a DAB+ down for Christmas morning.

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Question: Would that vort enhance LES amounts Friday morning?

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Question: Would that vort enhance LES amounts Friday morning?
Certainly could, as the passage of the vort will be accompanied by a reinforcing surge of cold advection. At least according to the NAM depiction, with the lake effect + synoptic enhancement could see squally type stuff swing out your way during the day on Friday.

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7 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Wow trend cannot be denied. Looks like blizzard conditions very well will be imby tomorrow. P&C at 5-9” with gusts to 50mph. Rare full forecasters discussions write up at 8:45pm. Worth the read. 

Upped that to 60mph:

Winds pick up mid afternoon and be impressive. Very effective mixing 
and an unstable boundary layer could bring 50+kt wind gusts down to 
the surface. Forecast soundings from western Minnesota show 60+ kt 
winds at the top of the mixed layer, with gusts up to 60 mph 
possible in western MN.
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22 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The point has 13 for a high for MLI tomorrow, so with today's record high of 63 it may be 50 degrees lower on tomorrow's max if they can get to 13 by midnight this eve.  Pretty impressive change in conditions.

That will hurt. Literally.

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38 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The point has 13 for a high for MLI tomorrow, so with today's record high of 63 it may be 50 degrees lower on tomorrow's max if they can get to 13 by midnight this eve.  Pretty impressive change in conditions.

There have been 3 Christmas Eves at MLI with a high of 13 or colder and a T or 0 snow depth. 

1910:  high 11 ; snow depth:  T

1996:  high 12 ; snow depth:  0

1968:  high 13 ; snow depth:  T

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Coldest of the season this morning with 7 degrees.  Lack of snow cover is allowing temps to get a little "warmer" than DVN anticipated yesterday, as MLI is already up to 14.

Some pretty nice squalls passed through southeast IA into west-central IL south of the QC overnight.  Shows up nicely on satellite this am.

 

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Low of -8 this morning with wind chills -20. First brutal cold wave of the season.

Next snow chance will bring light-mod snows with the Lake involved on Sun. Then Wed could be another dump for the Upper Midwest with the Lake involved heavily. With the bitter air around, we get it good on a E/NE wind with low pressure, and warmer waters.

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Or maybe not.  LOT sent out an updated climate report and took away the 0.2"
Not at the office so I'm not sure what went on with that. Seems like there's another chance to get on the board tonight if any of the occasional more robust snow showers move over ORD. This holiday mood dust is better than nothing. Did a lights tour around Naperville and the snow falling made for a nice vibe.

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2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not at the office so I'm not sure what went on with that. Seems like there's another chance to get on the board tonight if any of the occasional more robust snow showers move over ORD. This holiday mood dust is better than nothing. Did a lights tour around Naperville and the snow falling made for a nice vibe.

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Had enough pixie dust to cover the windshield so set a better Xmas mood

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