December 2020 General Discussion

[OrdIowPitMsp]

35 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Congrats.  You just got more than I have seen this fall/winter.

Thanks. It’s these little waves that models don’t pick up until inside 24hrs that keep me sane when the weather is this boring. 
 

[Snowstorms]

Models are adamant on a lake effect band setting up from Toronto to Hamilton on Wednesday A lot of it depends on the storm track. A further north track will mean a stouter lake effect band due to better cloud seeding from the storm. The 3km NAM has moisture getting up north to Ohio which is good for our region. Potential is definitely there for 2-4"+. 

[cyclone77]

Current snow cover.  Illustrates the 3-5" that fell just south of the QC sat, and nada here.  Cruel, cruel storm system lol.

 

[slow poke]

2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

It's a start... Winter conditions have arrived a lil bit.  18 with a w/c of 13, has snowed 2" overnight.  Temp should continue falling to around 12 degrees by noon... 4.5" otg   

Wow, that’s pretty crazy you guys only have that much on the ground right now, very unusual for sure. At least you know it’s not if but when the snow will start to pile up and get deep up there. You’ll probably still be below average come the 1st of the year but I would bet you guys will have a decent snowpack building by then. Down here in northern lower we have a decent start snow wise after this weekends storm but it’s anyone’s guess if it will continue building or be gone by new year’s. It was snowing out pretty good a bit ago here at Higgins, some lake effect, saying another 1-2” today but more to the north and west of us.

[Brian D]

22 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Same amount here. Ground looks the same here at my place

[Brian D]

Very cold day with a high of 9 and a low of 3 this morning. Front coming tomorrow so some light snow again. A little WAA with the warm front moving through.

[StormfanaticInd]

[WHEATCENT]

what is this latest NAM getting 6 inches all the way to lake county ohio woah
 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Got down to 9F imby overnight. Would have been well below zero with some snowpack.

[weatherbo]

With a few inches of fresh snow and late partial clearing,  temp dropped to 3 overnight. brrr

[MIstorm97]

Tomorrow’s event gonna be a top 3 event of the season here

[AWMT30]

12 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

Tomorrow’s event gonna be a top 3 event of the season here

I will take the 1-3" and run haha 

[A-L-E-K]

4 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

Tomorrow’s event gonna be a top 3 event of the season here

same

buried

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

We may as well roll out the carpet and for the 1” futility record at ORD. 

[purduewx80]

From pattern recognition, a Miller B redevelopment on the East Coast is almost always good for some accumulating lake effect in WI/IL. Looks like we will be seeding the lake clouds from the synoptic system thanks to the subtle N/W shift in the upper-level waves. Should be good for at least mood flakes late tomorrow AM into the night. 

[Frog Town]

Ummm.  Anyone in the southern lakes notice the high in Ontario throwing us a bone, Eh!

[MIstorm97]

34 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

same

buried

 

Ready 2 b buried 

 

36 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

I will take the 1-3" and run haha 

same. Literally need more than 1.1” for it to be the biggest snow imby

[AWMT30]

1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said:

Ready 2 b buried 

 

same. Literally need more than 1.1” for it to be the biggest snow imby

That won't be a problem IMO 

[Hoosier]

First and final call here:  DAB to DAB+

[A-L-E-K]

same

[Harry Perry]

Same here as well. Mood flakes. 

[A-L-E-K]

3 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

From pattern recognition, a Miller B redevelopment on the East Coast is almost always good for some accumulating lake effect in WI/IL. Looks like we will be seeding the lake clouds from the synoptic system thanks to the subtle N/W shift in the upper-level waves. Should be good for at least mood flakes late tomorrow AM into the night. 

take it to the bank folks

 

 

[RyanDe680]

I'll put my chips on the DAB thats coming on Christmas Eve.

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

take it to the bank folks

 

 

There are signals for a period of better convergence and organization.  I don't know about that depiction though.

[A-L-E-K]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There are signals for a period of better convergence and organization.  I don't know about that depiction though.

the 12z hi-res guidance is generally .1-.2 liquid on this side of the lake but I'm gonna ride the ukmet obv

[Kitchener poster]

Unless I’m seeing things it looks like the GFS and 3k Nam have the snow shield inching ever so slightly to the NW. I may see some flakes out of this one. 

[RCNYILWX]

the 12z hi-res guidance is generally .1-.2 liquid on this side of the lake but I'm gonna ride the ukmet obv

Plot twist, Alek's backyard as the snow capital of the Chicago metro. 

 

Edit: In all seriousness though, the LES parameters aren't terrible tomorrow from a thermodynamics perspective and duration as well. When I looked yesterday, lake induced ELs were peaking on the forecast soundings at 6k-7k feet, which is a bit better than marginal. The problem is the possibility as partial ice loss as we lose saturation in a portion of the DGZ. Overall DGZ saturation won't be great and lift peaks below it, so flake size should be pixies. Hoping the FZDZ monster is avoided.

 

 

 

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

bathtub adjacent property gonna finally pay off with the goods, been too long since an LES overperformer

[Scorpion]

If I can get 1/4” will be happy for my best so far this year 

[cyclone77]

Have flurries in the point tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Mood flakes to at least make it look a little more like winter at least.