Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 40 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Unless youre in a prime lake effect location, I'm not really banking on impressive snowfall totals with this Christmas system. The pace of this thing is just unreal, especially if the GFS type scenario played out. I can't imagine we could get more than an inch or two of snow before the precip tapers off, BUT at least it would be a white Christmas!! As for the lake effect, that certainly looks prime but somewhat short lived with modest warm air advection starting by Saturday afternoon. That said, with 2-3" an hour rates, 24-36 hours will more than enough time for some very hefty totals. I'm considering driving into Buffalo to Chase a bit on Christmas seeing as I won't be visiting anyone for this year That will be a game time call but it's definitely on my radar! In Summary, unless you're in one of those key lake effect spots, don't get your hopes up for a big dump. Just not a good synoptic setup. One thing I’ve noticed over the years from following significant lake events is they are difficult to shit down completely especially a string band. Many times either warm air advection or dry air can be overcome just by the warmer lake waters and a uniform flow...directional winds kill and sheer a band apart but I’m not seeing this yet...I remember as a kid in NT (this is way back in the 80’s) a band moved north into southern Niagara (rare back then) and we picked up almost a foot of snow before it dissipated, but what I remember very well is how water laden the snow was...we built forts and snowmen and it almost rolled perfectly. I think once that S/W moves near us Saturday night Sunday that band moves back north with enough oomph to still cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Not the best.. Some love for WNY but not much synoptic and weak LES off Ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Euro output? Yep... like I said euro is struggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Not the best.. Some love for WNY but not much synoptic and weak LES off Ontario.. Trusting the euro for LES amounts is like trusting a politician for a favor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Ukmet not much in the way of synoptic snow and keeps the flow WNW lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The Euro actually has a nice track, just a bit too west. Not sure why it doesn't produce a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Trusting the euro for LES amounts is like trusting a politician for a favor True but it does have the ability to show it to a degree..Last nights european at 10-1 looked decent.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 UKIE and Euro are pretty bad with Lake effect. Probably the 2 worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: UKIE and Euro are pretty bad with Lake effect. Probably the 2 worse. Ukmet actually shows it well..Wind direction is another story.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: The Euro actually has a nice track, just a bit too west. Not sure why it doesn't produce a bit more. Yeah that’s odd also...snow falling at night is always the best accumulation potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Ukmet actually shows it well..Wind direction is another story.. It shows it but they're not very accurate with it. They show overall trends not specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 See moving forward. I like a gfs rgem combo. Would be a good 3 to 6 inch event for Genesee valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Here’s how I look at things at this early juncture. For us in WNY it’s looking increasingly likely that we are going to see a decent hit of synoptic snowfall with anywhere from 3-6” looking like a good bet. The little details of where this storm goes and the exact degree of the wind direction is going to make a big difference for us in BUF. The 12z runs have been encouraging to me that we are going to see some impacts from lake effect in the BUF metro (wether that’s Southtowns vs Northtowns is still TBD). I could see 1 inch at BUF or 1 foot or more but the biggest thing to take away is the chances of a white Christmas are better this year in WNY than they have been in several years and that has me excited. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Here’s how I look at things at this early juncture. For us in WNY it’s looking increasingly likely that we are going to see a decent hit of synoptic snowfall with anywhere from 3-6” looking like a good bet. The little details of where this storm goes and the exact degree of the wind direction is going to make a big difference for us in BUF. The 12z runs have been encouraging to me that we are going to see some impacts from lake effect in the BUF metro (wether that’s Southtowns vs Northtowns is still TBD). I could see 1 inch at BUF or 1 foot or more but the biggest thing to take away is the chances of a white Christmas are better this year in WNY than they have been in several years and that has me excited. Well said D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: ...but the biggest thing to take away is the chances of a white Christmas are better this year in WNY than they have been in several years and that has me excited. Yes! And this will be the pasty snow sticking to everything due to the flash freeze. Might look a bit like ice riming you see on mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Wow, WSWs just came out for the LES...no mention of synoptic for anyone else....guess they are waiting?? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 218 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 NYZ006>008-220330- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0011.201225T0600Z-201226T1800Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 218 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of more than 9 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 218 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 NYZ010>012-019-020-085-220330- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0011.201225T0000Z-201226T1800Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 218 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of more than 9 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Wow, WSWs just came out for the LES...no mention of synoptic for anyone else....guess they are waiting?? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 218 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 NYZ006>008-220330- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0011.201225T0600Z-201226T1800Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 218 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of more than 9 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 218 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 NYZ010>012-019-020-085-220330- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0011.201225T0000Z-201226T1800Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 218 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of more than 9 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. More then 9", what a weird number. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Unless youre in a prime lake effect location, I'm not really banking on impressive snowfall totals with this Christmas system. The pace of this thing is just unreal, especially if the GFS type scenario played out. I can't imagine we could get more than an inch or two of snow before the precip tapers off, BUT at least it would be a white Christmas!! As for the lake effect, that certainly looks prime but somewhat short lived with modest warm air advection starting by Saturday afternoon. That said, with 2-3" an hour rates, 24-36 hours will more than enough time for some very hefty totals. I'm considering driving into Buffalo to Chase a bit on Christmas seeing as I won't be visiting anyone for this year That will be a game time call but it's definitely on my radar! In Summary, unless you're in one of those key lake effect spots, don't get your hopes up for a big dump. Just not a good synoptic setup. ya as someone not seeing any lake effect from this- Im excited for 1-3" of wet snow to make Christmas Day look great. Aside from that I'm mostly too far west in this sub because for immediate WNY and GTA to get a good storm 80% of this sub gets rain and in the other sub I post in (Great Lakes) I'm too Far East where if I get good snow most of that forum misses it or if they get good snow I get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Here we go! Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Christmas Day Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 As much as I want to get of quarantine and back to work... I guess tracking and chasing some snow bands wouldn’t be the worst way to finish out my last few days. Let the hype begin! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Thursday night into Friday being a major holiday period must be the reason behind issuing a WSW so early. Hopefully, due to the pandemic, travel will be light during that period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Unless youre in a prime lake effect location, I'm not really banking on impressive snowfall totals with this Christmas system. The pace of this thing is just unreal, especially if the GFS type scenario played out. I can't imagine we could get more than an inch or two of snow before the precip tapers off, BUT at least it would be a white Christmas!! As for the lake effect, that certainly looks prime but somewhat short lived with modest warm air advection starting by Saturday afternoon. That said, with 2-3" an hour rates, 24-36 hours will more than enough time for some very hefty totals. I'm considering driving into Buffalo to Chase a bit on Christmas seeing as I won't be visiting anyone for this year That will be a game time call but it's definitely on my radar! In Summary, unless you're in one of those key lake effect spots, don't get your hopes up for a big dump. Just not a good synoptic setup. I agree With this post. Although I would say synoptically most areas should get a little more than a couple inces.....maybe 2-4/3-5... At least as it is depicted on the models right now. Cold air looks to be coming in quickly as the heaviest convection is taking place. Could be a couple hours of heavy snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: I agree With this post. Although I would say synoptically most areas should get a little more than a couple inces.....maybe 2-4/3-5... At least as it is depicted on the models right now. Cold air looks to be coming in quickly as the heaviest convection is taking place. Could be a couple hours of heavy snow. What are you thinking for totals off Erie and Ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: I agree With this post. Although I would say synoptically most areas should get a little more than a couple inces.....maybe 2-4/3-5... At least as it is depicted on the models right now. Cold air looks to be coming in quickly as the heaviest convection is taking place. Could be a couple hours of heavy snow. I think it’s this timeframe the northern burbs pick up their share. Once the synoptic stops and pure LES takes over I think the vector changes to a more WSW and that’s when Hamburg, Orchard park, south Buffalo and West Seneca get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Updated Forecast Discussion .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...Heavy Lake Effect Snow Possible Christmas through December 26... The aforementioned system will started to rapidly wrap colder air into the area as the increasingly-curved upper jet structure advances northward through the area on Thursday night. This will rapidly drop 850 hPa temperatures from SW to NE across the area as it does so and change precipitation from rain to snow long before synoptic moisture peels away. This will result in a few inches of snow for almost the entire area before the deeper moisture associated with the system departs. As progressively colder air moves into the region with cyclonic flow entrenched in the area, flow in the 925-850 hPa layer turns southwest on Christmas Day on all guidance, including even the ECMWF at this point (just with a bit of a lag relative to the GFS/Canadian global). Model soundings suggest a deep unstable layer that fully bisects the dendritic growth layer and weak shear within the unstable moist layer. This should allow for good dominant banding to develop first down the length of Lake Erie then a few hours later down Lake Ontario. The persistence of the flow regime on the Canadian is particularly troubling, as the layer averaged flow in the 925-850 hPa layer suggests banding off of Lake Erie right into the Buffalo metro area from Friday right into Saturday for the majority of the time period. While this may be a worst case scenario, it`s also a plausible scenario, as the GFS has been suggesting this for several runs, and the ECMWF layer-averaged flow has taken on a southerly component that makes confidence on lake effect banding making it northward toward the Buffalo metro area very plausible. With the placement of the band in mind, it comes down to snow production efficiency. Bufkit soundings suggest equilibrium levels up toward 10-11 kft by Friday with a lake to 850 hPa delta T of roughly 20C, which combined with cyclonic flow a saturated dendritic layer should result in bands producing 2" per hour snowfall. Depending upon their residency in a particular spot, that could result in a foot or two of snow easily NE of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, however some shifting of the bands will result in a threat of 9" or more over a broad enough area with confidence commiserate for a winter storm watch for lake effect snow. Watches were thus issued for Thursday night into Saturday in both locations. Lighter lake snows will linger into Sunday and eventually fall apart as warm advection ahead of the next system to affect the area turns flow southerly and warms temperatures into the start of next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 So going by the point and click for Williamsville it has snow heavy at times for Christmas Day then snow before 1am then snow showers after. Snow could be heavy at times. If this came to fruition I would totally take 10 hours of LES before it shifts south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: More then 9", what a weird number. That is the number that's needed over a 24 hour period( to justify a WSW), probably feel more confident in that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Updated Forecast Discussion .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...Heavy Lake Effect Snow Possible Christmas through December 26... The aforementioned system will started to rapidly wrap colder air into the area as the increasingly-curved upper jet structure advances northward through the area on Thursday night. This will rapidly drop 850 hPa temperatures from SW to NE across the area as it does so and change precipitation from rain to snow long before synoptic moisture peels away. This will result in a few inches of snow for almost the entire area before the deeper moisture associated with the system departs. As progressively colder air moves into the region with cyclonic flow entrenched in the area, flow in the 925-850 hPa layer turns southwest on Christmas Day on all guidance, including even the ECMWF at this point (just with a bit of a lag relative to the GFS/Canadian global). Model soundings suggest a deep unstable layer that fully bisects the dendritic growth layer and weak shear within the unstable moist layer. This should allow for good dominant banding to develop first down the length of Lake Erie then a few hours later down Lake Ontario. The persistence of the flow regime on the Canadian is particularly troubling, as the layer averaged flow in the 925-850 hPa layer suggests banding off of Lake Erie right into the Buffalo metro area from Friday right into Saturday for the majority of the time period. While this may be a worst case scenario, it`s also a plausible scenario, as the GFS has been suggesting this for several runs, and the ECMWF layer-averaged flow has taken on a southerly component that makes confidence on lake effect banding making it northward toward the Buffalo metro area very plausible. With the placement of the band in mind, it comes down to snow production efficiency. Bufkit soundings suggest equilibrium levels up toward 10-11 kft by Friday with a lake to 850 hPa delta T of roughly 20C, which combined with cyclonic flow a saturated dendritic layer should result in bands producing 2" per hour snowfall. Depending upon their residency in a particular spot, that could result in a foot or two of snow easily NE of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, however some shifting of the bands will result in a threat of 9" or more over a broad enough area with confidence commiserate for a winter storm watch for lake effect snow. Watches were thus issued for Thursday night into Saturday in both locations. Lighter lake snows will linger into Sunday and eventually fall apart as warm advection ahead of the next system to affect the area turns flow southerly and warms temperatures into the start of next week. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, vortmax said: The Euro actually has a nice track, just a bit too west. Not sure why it doesn't produce a bit more. Indices being what they are and given what the last storm did, my main concern is this shifts west or continues to go right over us. Obviously the best track for the majority of the forum is up the Hudson River Valley. The UKIE and the EURO are getting close to complete busts for Rochester to Syracuse. The Euro is close to being solid though (energetic little wave!). These next 48 hours are going to be critical- if it is progged to go any further west we won’t be able to rely on any last minute tick east. I still like the set-up and I still think we look good in Gennessee Valley and West. All the traditional lake effect folks are golden. How many Christmas dumps have you guys had? I feel like it happens a lot for BUF! Fun stuff boys. Merry Christmas. Hoping it’s real white!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wow Easy 1-2', Not often that is said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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