Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS low res 20" across south towns. GFS hi res The metro cashes for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: First call 3 to 5 inches synoptic Christmas eve into Christmas morning. I like this set up. These can surprise us. I’m disappointed that winds don’t line up NE. My first call is 9” for Roc and 2 feet to follow in BUF after 3” synoptic. The eastern zones are gonna initially toy with the taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: The metro cashes for sure The potential is definitely there for significant lake effect snow behind but still far too early. I’m definitely getting excited but am tempering my expectations for at least 2 more days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I don't mind the Canadian, just need a little east and it would of been much better..Lake snows "whip lash" gets me involved, that's all I can ask for at this point lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: The potential is definitely there for significant lake effect snow behind but still far too early. I’m definitely getting excited but am tempering my expectations for at least 2 more days The event starts late Thursday evening. It's not too far out. I agree though, lake effect we need to wait until 48 hours prior. Wednesday we should have a very good picture on it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 RGEM has a nice synoptic hit before the lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 HWO A strengthening storm over our region on Thursday could generate a soaking rain into Thursday evening. This rain combined with snow melt could result in minor flooding. Following a general accumulating snow Thursday night, significant lake effect snow will then be possible east or northeast of Lake Erie from Christmas Day through Saturday. While there is still some uncertainty in the track of the storm system, there is growing confidence that travel in at least parts of the region could be severely impacted by what could turn out to be a significant lake effect snow event. Any lake effect snow would be accompanied by gusty winds as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 A little buckle in the last two frames in PA. That’s what we need for this to synoptically over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro should start running soon, we'll see how she goes. 00z Euro was slower to form the frontal wave (to the north), GFS/Canadian are quicker. We'd all like the central position where it's just SE of us as it approaches just after the strong frontal passage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Lake effect snow watches for Erie county tomorrow afternoon update if these runs continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: A little buckle in the last two frames in PA. That’s what we need for this to synoptically over perform. The sensible weather under that passage would be heavy rain...to heavy graupel...to heavy snow paste. Dave, what are the 2m temps doing during this time? Flash freeze? I remember one time where there was a strong cold frontal passage (anafrontal event) where heavy rain instantly turned to heavy snow. Was one of the coolest weather events I've witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The blizzard of 99 was this type of set up. Not saying this is that at all but was general idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 We take, nice 3 feet over my place. 4' near watertown. GEM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: The blizzard of 99 was this type of set up. Not saying this is that at all but was general idea. Was thinking the same, although that front was slower, more angled - we got a good 1" of rain before the passage. But, yes...this is a rare, but fun situation in the winter with lots of potential and wild transitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Rgem 2m temperatures at 0Z Friday. Cold air advection spreading across western NY. The front is right over me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, CNY_WX said: Rgem 2m temperatures at 0Z Friday. Cold air advection spreading across western NY. The front is right over me. Thanks! Looks like the warm lakes really keep that cold air from advancing quickly. I'd imaging the temps 30ft off the deck are 2-4 degrees colder at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: HWO A strengthening storm over our region on Thursday could generate a soaking rain into Thursday evening. This rain combined with snow melt could result in minor flooding. Following a general accumulating snow Thursday night, significant lake effect snow will then be possible east or northeast of Lake Erie from Christmas Day through Saturday. While there is still some uncertainty in the track of the storm system, there is growing confidence that travel in at least parts of the region could be severely impacted by what could turn out to be a significant lake effect snow event. Any lake effect snow would be accompanied by gusty winds as well. Damn they actually put northeast of the lakes in there...that’s a big step for KBUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake effect snow watches for Erie county tomorrow afternoon update if these runs continue. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Ukmet says no to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Damn they actually put northeast of the lakes in there...that’s a big step for KBUF Erie is much warmer than I thought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Unless youre in a prime lake effect location, I'm not really banking on impressive snowfall totals with this Christmas system. The pace of this thing is just unreal, especially if the GFS type scenario played out. I can't imagine we could get more than an inch or two of snow before the precip tapers off, BUT at least it would be a white Christmas!! As for the lake effect, that certainly looks prime but somewhat short lived with modest warm air advection starting by Saturday afternoon. That said, with 2-3" an hour rates, 24-36 hours will more than enough time for some very hefty totals. I'm considering driving into Buffalo to Chase a bit on Christmas seeing as I won't be visiting anyone for this year That will be a game time call but it's definitely on my radar! In Summary, unless you're in one of those key lake effect spots, don't get your hopes up for a big dump. Just not a good synoptic setup. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 There’s a nice sucker hole in the clouds over the Syracuse area right now. Too bad it doesn’t look like it will last until after dark so we can see the super conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 From a purely Christmas standpoint...could be a really nice scene in the morning with the snow sticking to everything... Even a couple inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, vortmax said: From a purely Christmas standpoint...could look really pretty scene in the morning with the snow sticking to everything... Even a couple inches. Agree 100% on this. Cold and snow cover is all I want on Christmas day. We've had some warm green ones over the last decade and it sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro is a lot slower than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro has a bit of lake snow for buffalo. Mainly south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Euro is a lot slower than GFS. Euro has been a mess lately...more erratic then Brittany spears driving with her baby in her car... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 42 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Unless youre in a prime lake effect location, I'm not really banking on impressive snowfall totals with this Christmas system. The pace of this thing is just unreal, especially if the GFS type scenario played out. I can't imagine we could get more than an inch or two of snow before the precip tapers off, BUT at least it would be a white Christmas!! As for the lake effect, that certainly looks prime but somewhat short lived with modest warm air advection starting by Saturday afternoon. That said, with 2-3" an hour rates, 24-36 hours will more than enough time for some very hefty totals. I'm considering driving into Buffalo to Chase a bit on Christmas seeing as I won't be visiting anyone for this year That will be a game time call but it's definitely on my radar! In Summary, unless you're in one of those key lake effect spots, don't get your hopes up for a big dump. Just not a good synoptic setup. All of my concerns listed here. But 99 was kind of similar. I really think someone does well. Multiple waves move up that front, quickly. Which is why I’m really hoping one can get some traction South of us and buckle that front. I believe we see that on GFS and at the end of RGEM. I like the possibility especially over Gennessee Valley. I’ve been wrong before (like all the time) and I’ll be wrong again but I like this set up. 6”+ The Lake Effect members are golden. This is a solid set up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The next system forgot to bring precip lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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