BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 CPC released their December outlook 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 A shortwave trough riding through the northern-stream longwave trough Thursday. This will produce a surface low which will push east across Canada and drag its associated frontal feature across the region Friday producing chances for showers. Additionally on Thursday, another upper level cut off low over Mid- Mississippi River Valley will interact with the shortwave rounding the base of the northern-stream longwave trough. As these features interact, a second surface low will deepen and push northeast up along the Eastern Seaboard Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation may start out as snow on the higher terrain Saturday and Sunday morning, with the possibility of a wintry mix in the lower terrain. Some disagreement in the models in regards to placement of the sfc low that develops over the SE U.S. late Saturday into early Sunday, and its track, so kept chance POPs through the period for now. As the low quickly shuffles off the Atlantic coast Sunday, yet another upper level shortwave will round the base of the northern- stream longwave trough, which will at the surface swing a cold front through the area and bringing another round of precipitation chances to the area. Given the deeper cold air advection, any falling precipitation on Monday should be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Yeah, I'm not sure I agree with them. I think at end of month we are around average temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 CFS outlook for December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah, I'm not sure I agree with them. I think at end of month we are around average temps. Agreed. The teleconnections say otherwise - other than the MJO, which is fairly neutral. I don't have a good direct link to see the EPO forecast...anyone have one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: The weekend storm doesn't even matter. It's almost all rain, airmass blows. Not sure anymore...models look to be trending colder...at least on this run...it’ll change 7 times between now and then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Snow reports .5" here https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, vortmax said: Agreed. The teleconnections say otherwise - other than the MJO, which is fairly neutral. I don't have a good direct link to see the EPO forecast...anyone have one? I saw in the mid Atlantic forum it goes negative mid month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Snow reports .5" here https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Ok...so far the winter storm warning areas have less snow than KBUF, Cheektowaga and Lockport... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Last 2 runs of the european.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Only 4 days out so not fantasy land, we'll see how this trends over the next day or two.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: I’m no professional here but isn’t the NAO negative right now? If true that system would retrograde again and throw moisture back over the lakes...in fact I’m surprised that’s not showing already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 It kind of does TS but it's more of a true lake effect than enhancement.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 It's just one run, hopefully this is a trend towards some earlier phasing and a westward jog lol Wait till the catskills boys see that run lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I’m stationed in Redfield for the next 7-10 days so come on Euro. Nice rainstorm and 38 right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I love the Euro look for my camp in the western Daks, but I think its a dart throw solution. We need some run to run continuity to buy what the Euro has been selling since its handing out different solutions on every run of the last 4 cycles. We are getting closer to the 'event' depicted so there's that going for us. I guess we don't go to sleep on this one after all, which is where my head was at. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's just one run, hopefully this is a trend towards some earlier phasing and a westward jog lol Wait till the catskills boys see that run lol 2+ feet at my house. We can always adjust up from there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Temps never warmed like they were supposed to...currently at the freezing mark and daylight is waning...will begin to see the snow stick again in a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 I’ll be hiking dec 18-20, can’t lose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 A well defined spoke of vorticity will orbit the closed low and cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight, combining with deep moisture and cyclonic flow to produce fairly widespread synoptic scale snow of limited intensity. High resolution model guidance suggests a brief burst of moderate snow is possible across the Niagara Frontier, including Buffalo, this evening as DPVA maximizes and interacts cooperatively with Georgian Bay and Lake Huron upstream connections. The heaviest accumulations are still expected to focus across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, with the majority of that accumulation coming from late this afternoon through the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Boundary layer flow will become better aligned from the WNW by this evening after the closed low moves farther away and shear decreases. This will allow for lake enhanced upslope flow to increase in efficiency this evening east of Lake Erie. The strongest upstream connection to Lake Huron will be found in NE Ohio and NW PA, but mesoscale model guidance suggests some weaker secondary banding will tie into the western Southern Tier tonight. Deeper moisture, synoptic support, and colder air aloft pulls away rapidly Wednesday morning, so expect the snow to taper off and end during the morning. Storm total accumulations are still expected to reach a little over a foot locally along the Chautauqua Ridge along a line from Sherman to Mayville and Perrysburg, with 6-9 inches fanning out farther inland across the higher terrain of eastern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties and also in the Boston Hills. 4-6 inches is expected for the higher terrain in the western half of Wyoming County. Farther north, expect total accumulations of 1-3 inches for the Niagara Frontier, with local amounts of 4-5 inches in a few spots in central Niagara County. 1-3 inches is also expected in Allegany County, greatest in the higher terrain in the western portion of the county. For the Genesee Valley, most locations will see an inch or less, with 2-4 inches locally for the Bristol Hills. East of Lake Ontario, boundary layer flow through most of tonight remains SW or even SSW, preventing lake enhancement from reaching the Tug Hill Plateau. Upslope flow will produce some modest accumulations on the southwest flank of the Tug Hill, with lake enhancement also producing some minor, slushy accumulations across Jefferson County. Boundary layer flow veers more westerly on Wednesday as the low pulls away, with a relatively brief window for favorable westerly lake enhancement and upslope flow for the Tug Hill Plateau. Snow totals on the Tug Hill may reach 4-8 inches tonight through Wednesday, with 1-3 inches for the surrounding lower elevations of the eastern Lake Ontario region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Flying MXZ said: 2+ feet at my house. We can always adjust up from there. Only 18 inches here, there you go stealing our snow again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 LR NAM Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Not saying it's correct but the NAM is definitely more like the european.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I really think this moves a bit west and our whole CWA cashes...book it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 7 hours ago, wolfie09 said: That's interesting...Dave mentioned a South shore band earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Temps and DP dropping here quite a bit due to clearing skies. Hoping anything that falls tonight is white. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 The weekend has HUGE potential, think I'd be right on the border in Amsterdam as currently depicted. But the old adage goes you gotta sniff the rain to be close to the best snows. I wouldn't mind a rain to snow scenario either with that powder keg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: EPS Pretty far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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