BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Luke_Mages said: Bills clinch afc east and now this, and over a long weekend. Only work 3 days this week. Has crazy potential, but it's not an ideal setup compared to some past events. Still a long ways out, will know more Weds/Thurs as high Res Models come into timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It perplexed all the mets on the New England forum, they didn't understand it. The banding in Southern Vermont and NH they understood, but the Binghamton banding they couldn't figure out. Hopefully some good papers will be written on it. I've never seen strong LES rates in synoptic like that outside of right along the coast or higher elevations in upslope. Cleanup still ongoing in the Binghamton area. Loaded dump trucks are half the vehicles driving by our office on Rte 7. We have crews working with the City of Binghamton and with DOT day and night since we dug ourselves out on Friday. Some side streets in Endicott hadn’t been plowed as of Saturday afternoon. At home we are shoveling roofs getting ready for a lot of weight to be added to this snow. Unfortunately I think we’re going to hear about roofs collapsing on Christmas Eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Little event overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Driving to long lake it seemed like a different world then WNY. It was full blown winter from near Syracuse all the way to Long lake. About a foot of snow on the ground and it snowed the entire way back yesterday with some decent rates. Every 1k feet of elevation added another 6-8" of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 LR NAM in the GFS camp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It perplexed all the mets on the New England forum, they didn't understand it. The banding in Southern Vermont and NH they understood, but the Binghamton banding they couldn't figure out. Hopefully some good papers will be written on it. I've never seen strong LES rates in synoptic like that outside of right along the coast or higher elevations in upslope. I have to think it might have something to do with elevation/hills? That general area (sort of the triangle between I-90/I-81/I-88) tends to be a popular placing for banding structures upstate. I don't think that its a classic upslope scenario but maybe it's just prime location for mid level forcing for coastal lows, combined with hills/etc. The 700mb low was modeled (late in the game) to close off over eastern PA and proceed Northeast. Which is where the heaviest Snowfall occurred. The 700 and 850 mb panels day before and day of storm showed the fgen forcing pretty well but even an algorithm can't always be precise with how much qpf that produces. So there's a bit of chaos theory involved IMO. My unwashed thoughts anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 35 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Analogs for Fri-Sun LES event. I'd favor a Westerly flow at this moment. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2020122100&map=thbCOOP72 So are you riding the GFS atm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Driving to long lake it seemed like a different world then WNY. It was full blown winter from near Syracuse all the way to Long lake. About a foot of snow on the ground and it snowed the entire way back yesterday with some decent rates. Every 1k feet of elevation added another 6-8" of snow. Oddly next week Syracuse westward will feel like full blown winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I feel like post frontal snows are often overdone. Need some tilt. that said, even 2-5” and some lingering snow falling on Christmas morning would be a welcome treat!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Analogs for Fri-Sun LES event. I'd favor a Westerly flow at this moment. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2020122100&map=thbCOOP72 Yeah I’m not seeing the metro analogs that I had hoped to see, but January 2014 was a pretty good storm for the metro (a blizzard warning for all of Erie County, and 12”+ up to Eggertsville and Snyder), despite a partly frozen lake. The cold was brutal, with high winds dropping the wind chill down to -20. But it was a huge event off Ontario. Didn’t Watertown get multiple feet? I remember feeling jealous that they got much more snow off an almost identical flow as Buffalo. The Ontario band meandered as well — this one really walloped the Tug. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lake1314_stormg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So are you riding the GFS atm? Well it's not just the GFS. The Canadian, GFS, Ukmet, icon, para all have westerly flows, even the european does once it gets done with buffalo.. Obviously subject to change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I feel like post frontal snows are often overdone. Need some tilt. that said, even 2-5” and some lingering snow falling on Christmas morning would be a welcome treat!! Yeah, just an inch or two will suffice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, just an inch or two will suffice. Yep. Hell. Even if snow is falling while my two young boys are opening their gifts with Bing Crosby in I will be ecstatic! i already got what I wanted with the Dolphins winning and eliminating the Pats and the Jets winning and losing Lawrence! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Current forecast, subject to change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Icon cuts west at 12z, setting up some SW flow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 35 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I feel like post frontal snows are often overdone. Need some tilt. that said, even 2-5” and some lingering snow falling on Christmas morning would be a welcome treat!! That’s my biggest concern too. We need this wave to buckle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Icon cuts west at 12z, setting up some SW flow.. $5 says GFS trends west while Euro goes to East... It would only make sense... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: LR NAM in the GFS camp.. Deepening as she lifts. Never let your guard down on a wave that’s deepening pretty rapidly like this. This would put down a quick 6”+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Icon would be a record les event for Buffalo. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Icon would be a record les event for Buffalo. Looks like you guys will get something decent which is great. On the other hand all the promise of big winter weather seems to be falling apart. Hamilton is rain followed by flurries and cold air. lol watching the goalposts get pushed back every few weeks by those saying big time Nina winter on the way is pretty interesting (for the Great Lakes) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 RGEM is taking middle of the road path. Little slower than NAM but faster than ICON... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: $5 says GFS trends west while Euro goes to East... It would only make sense... Looks like you may be right with the first part lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Icon would be a record les event for Buffalo. Icon was a good model last storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Huge hit for some areas near the lakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 49 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I feel like post frontal snows are often overdone. Need some tilt. that said, even 2-5” and some lingering snow falling on Christmas morning would be a welcome treat!! Agree on this. Most likely scenario is a driving rain for several hours with temps rising to near 50 on Thursday, followed by the front and an inch or two (maybe) for most of us. The LES...who knows, but the usual places on generally West flow look best. The ICON would be a disaster scenario. I'm hoping for something like what the current NAM shows, which offers a bit of hope for an inch or two post front passage and at least a glimmer of hope for an XMas miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: RGEM is taking middle of the road path. Little slower than NAM but faster than ICON... I think at this point, what 72 hours out, WNY looks to be in a good spot both synoptic and Mesoscale. Numbers are impossible at this time but overall plow able snow looks likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Enjoy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The synoptic portion FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Enjoy Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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