Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: We like being the underdogs here! But yeah I’ve been noticing that as well. Not sure which model output that is showing but here is the GFS, way off! Normally with the gradient being so tight across BUF I just chalk it up to that but here the entire city and the airport are clearly colored as 24”+ but given a numeric value much less. I mean it doesn’t really matter in the bigger picture but still. Wonder where the actual “forcast point” is for BUF on PW map. Well it’s like I’ve been noticing is the band once develops is not stationary...will see many areas get the goods 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 European is going to cut again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 And build a second wave BEFORE it hits us??? That’s weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: European is going to cut again.. 2020 can bite me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 35 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: WOW, KBGM might have close to 60" when its all said and done with 2/3rds of the Winter left thats of course if the Ukie is correct, which I doubt it is. The Ukie deserves more respect than it gets. it often has better verification scores than the GFS. which admittedly is a low bar but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I think the european may have 2 waves ride the front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Euro has the 2nd wave which is good. All the globals have it. Euro doesn't cut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, vortmax said: Euro has the 2nd wave which is good. All the globals have it. Euro doesn't cut. Yup.. Thanks I was comparing to last night's run and realized something looked different lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Yup.. Thanks I was comparing to last night's run and realized something looked different lol 2nd wave is weaker though, but that's secondary at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 They just keep popping up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Wow, 3rd low (985mb), stronger than the 2nd forms over Scranton @156. Didn't see that coming. And that one starts to retro @162. Nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Euro putting up some big totals, but more of a WNW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: 2nd wave is weaker though, but that's secondary at this point. Is that supposed to be a pun? The Euro still has us above freezing at 850 into Christmas morning so any precipitation until around noon on Friday will be in liquid form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, CNY_WX said: Is that supposed to be a pun? The Euro still has us above freezing at 850 into Christmas morning so any precipitation until around noon on Friday will be in liquid form. Euro is still a big hit, but not until that 3rd LP forms. The point is all the globals have powerful LPs running up the front now. That's a step in the right direction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 ’nother hybrid incoming? This isn’t going to the final evolution. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: They just keep popping up lol Lmao it has 4 waves!!! Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Euro 10:1 by 12z the 27th. Starts on Christmas day... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 No thanks to the Euro here in BUF. There goes all our lake effect of that was the case. Luckily there’s 10 more runs of the Euro and 20 of the GFS before this event even begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: No thanks to the Euro here in BUF. There goes all our lake effect of that was the case. Luckily there’s 10 more runs of the Euro and 20 of the GFS before this event even begins. The hope here is everyone gets some synoptic with LE on the back end. Definitely looking better with today's 12z runs. Starting Christmas Eve would be preferential. I'm hoping to see things speed up about 12hrs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, vortmax said: The hope here is everyone gets some synoptic with LE on the back end. Definitely looking better with today's 12z runs. I mean I wouldn’t be mad if we spread the love and the whole region sees 4-8” which is looking like the max that would come out of one of these waves riding a front scenarios. I just selfishly would love to see a SW flow for days and huge totals even if it’s not over my house lol. Will be interesting to see how this evolves over the next several days as I would not be surprised if a solution ends up as one that’s not even being presented as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: FWIW Member 7 would get it done for all. HEY! We took a huge step in the right direction today. As was discussed yesterday, these wave runners are tough. It’s great to see all the models locking onto what was once just an ICON and GFS fever dream. Looks like someone gets the prize of waking up to a white Christmas! As I see it, we have two camps: a cutter that traverses NW and gives BUF and the Tug big LES after the rest of us losers get a flash freeze OR an inland track up the Appalachian spine that crushes big territory in WNY/CNY followed by a N-NW wind that adds inches to the areas that got hit hardest (Roc-SYR). The BUF team (and Wolfie) probably want #1. The rest of us would probably prefer #2. lots of time but dang boys- we got fun coming 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Stoked about pattern. Should be fun and around holidays for once. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 34 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: No thanks to the Euro here in BUF. There goes all our lake effect of that was the case. Luckily there’s 10 more runs of the Euro and 20 of the GFS before this event even begins. Euro has been rough lately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: FWIW That’s a lot of love 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Member 7 would get it done for all. HEY! We took a huge step in the right direction today. As was discussed yesterday, these wave runners are tough. It’s great to see all the models locking onto what was once just an ICON and GFS fever dream. Looks like someone gets the prize of waking up to a white Christmas! As I see it, we have two camps: a cutter that traverses NW and gives BUF and the Tug big LES after the rest of us losers get a flash freeze OR an inland track up the Appalachian spine that crushes big territory in WNY/CNY followed by a N-NW wind that adds inches to the areas that got hit hardest (Roc-SYR). The BUF team (and Wolfie) probably want #1. The rest of us would probably prefer #2. lots of time but dang boys- we got fun coming Well that depends, lol Yesterdays GFS runs that went up the apps crushed me with a west wind, I think one run had near 50" for pulaski haha..If it goes NE off the coast that's a different story.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 If it goes due north the wind will be somewhere out of the west.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well that depends, lol Yesterdays GFS runs that went up the apps crushed me with a west wind, I think one run had near 50" for pulaski haha..If it goes NE off the coast that's a different story.. I usually think of a big LP centered just S of Hudson Bay as the set up for the epic SW wind trajectory events. Couple showed that earlier. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Ukie Where do I sign? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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