lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Latest map. ..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches on the Tug Hill, and higher terrain with 2 inches or less of accumulation across lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes on Wednesday Wolf your in a great spot! I would never be moving from where you are lol. Even events that seem marginal for you turnout great. I’m jealous haha. I got a solid dusting this morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 53 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Snowing ATM and ground coated...KBUF actually has a special weather statement out about the potential for an inch of snow this morning making the commute difficult...I didn’t know we were now the new Atlanta GA... Think about it, if it weren’t for Lake Erie we would have the climate of Pittsburgh with how fast we seem to be warming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Is it me or does the Low seem to be nearly over BUF when it was forecast to be much further NE than this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Well funny you say that because people around here claim it snows much more in the pulaski area lol I do have elevation up here but I'm a little north of the good stuff, I need more of a SW component to get into some heavy snows.. Depends on which way the wind blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Is it me or does the Low seem to be nearly over BUF when it was forecast to be much further NE than this. I noticed that on the radar as well this morning. Curious if that’s the low level feature or the upper level feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 If you look at the winter season summaries the 2000s had many more "westerly" looking seasons with even some lower elevations outpacing the tug, every year in the 2000s pulaski had more snow than copenhagen...In the 2010s it has been completely opposite lol Much more WSW flow looking years with the tug and surrounding areas dominating year after year, pulaski hasn't beating copenhagen once in this decade.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Woke up to winter! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Woke up to winter! Fitting now that it's officially winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 700mb low is directly over Kbuf as per the local mesoscale analysis 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Is it me or does the Low seem to be nearly over BUF when it was forecast to be much further NE than this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Picked up my first official inch this am and currently 1.1” and lightly snowing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 The 0z european didn't have much for D6 but has a big storm D9/10.. 6z Gfs drives this weekends system into NY state.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: That's interesting...Dave mentioned a South shore band earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 SR guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: SR guidance Most guidance has KBUF at 2-3”. I’ve had about 1.3” so far and I believe that with he low pulling away the better moisture on the backside this evening and overnight will be enhanced and help snowfall rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: The 0z european didn't have much for D6 but has a big storm D9/10.. 6z Gfs drives this weekends system into NY state.. Fantasy land but I'd get absolutely wrecked. Lock it in. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 42 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Most guidance has KBUF at 2-3”. I’ve had about 1.3” so far and I believe that with he low pulling away the better moisture on the backside this evening and overnight will be enhanced and help snowfall rates. At least for the GTA this will end up being a slow system but still will leave the region 4-8". I think Buffalo-Niagara has a chance to make this an okay 3-5" system as well. Not the way everyone would like but it will certainly make it feel like winter. We were flirting with upper 70s and 80s not even a month ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Most SRG has my area in 3-5" and I'll bet any amount of money that we don't see more than an 1" because I've gotten beaten too many times with these srg readouts so I'll wait till I see the band this evening if we see one at all!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: At least for the GTA this will end up being a slow system but still will leave the region 4-8". I think Buffalo-Niagara has a chance to make this an okay 3-5" system as well. Not the way everyone would like but it will certainly make it feel like winter. We were flirting with upper 70s and 80s not even a month ago. Snow continues to fall here at the lakeshore in Hamburg but really having a rough time accumulating. Checking my Nest Cam at home in Amherst it’s snowing steadily but there’s actually less snow now than there was a few hours ago as temps are just above freezing around 33 degrees. Without elevation we’re going to struggle to accumulate until the sun goes down or we can get some heavier rates this afternoon. Whole different ball game as you get above 900-1000 feet as temps drop just below freezing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Snow continues to fall here at the lakeshore in Hamburg but really having a rough time accumulating. Checking my Nest Cam at home in Amherst it’s snowing steadily but there’s actually less snow now than there was a few hours ago as temps are just above freezing around 33 degrees. Without elevation we’re going to struggle to accumulate until the sun goes down or we can get some heavier rates this afternoon. Whole different ball game as you get above 900-1000 feet as temps drop just below freezing. Ya, the same thing is happening up here even with elevation. Im thinking some of the heavier bands today and tonight push you guys to 3" with a few lollipops of 4-5". Considering 1-2" was all that was talked about for the Buffalo-Niagara Metro Id say its an okay event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Snow continues to fall here at the lakeshore in Hamburg but really having a rough time accumulating. Checking my Nest Cam at home in Amherst it’s snowing steadily but there’s actually less snow now than there was a few hours ago as temps are just above freezing around 33 degrees. Without elevation we’re going to struggle to accumulate until the sun goes down or we can get some heavier rates this afternoon. Whole different ball game as you get above 900-1000 feet as temps drop just below freezing. That’s my thought to Dev...I’m not as concerned now as it’s fighting diurnal and marginal temps...snow had no problem accumulating last night and I expect tonight to be no different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That’s my thought to Dev...I’m not as concerned now as it’s fighting diurnal and marginal temps...snow had no problem accumulating last night and I expect tonight to be no different I would hope so. 3 weeks away from diurnal minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 KBUF is reporting 1.9" so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: KBUF is reporting 1.9" so far today. 3" so far in my area. Potential for another 2-4" by tomorrow morning. This airmass is putrid. Hoping there's a pattern change by mid December to allow for better storm opportunities and lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Yeah I haven’t measured in the right time periods today so unfortunately I’m a bit low I see....I guess we might hit that 4” mark by the end of this small snowfall...oh and FWIW the 12z looks exactly like the 00z euro and the weekend storm is east coast now...curiously though there’s not much precip on the northern side of the system and the track it shows typically would bury us...we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah I haven’t measured in the right time periods today so unfortunately I’m a bit low I see....I guess we might hit that 4” mark by the end of this small snowfall...oh and FWIW the 12z looks exactly like the 00z euro and the weekend storm is east coast now...curiously though there’s not much precip on the northern side of the system and the track it shows typically would bury us...we wait The weekend storm doesn't even matter. It's almost all rain, airmass blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 The winds in the high peaks are insane. Also found this researching high winds up there. As temperatures dropped across the Northeast from the blast of a polar vortex, the wind chill at Whiteface, near Lake Placid, made it feel like a body- and mind-numbing minus 114 degrees late Saturday and into Sunday. Central Park could only muster a minus 1 degree. Can you imagine hiking up there that day?? You would literally just die lol https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/upstate-ny-mountain-hits-110-degrees-wind-chill-summit-article-1.2531580 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Ukmet still giving some hope for the weekend.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 May be a small stripe of snow on the NW side of the low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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