vortmax Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I think we get the christmas eve cold front, that seems fairly locked in. But chasing a wave that develops along the front 7 days out is a long shot. Very tricky evolution for that to work out. Definitely. Seems the energy is there for a wave, just a matter of timing. The EC has the primary LP much further south, then slowing move it NE, then retros to Hudson Bay. Either scenario will bring snow to WNY Christmas Eve night to the next several days. EC would bring big lake snows with prolonged SW flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Someone from WNY programmed the european today, toss.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Definitely. Seems the energy is there for a wave, just a matter of timing. The EC has the primary LP much further south, then slowing move it NE, then retros to Hudson Bay. Either scenario will bring snow to WNY Christmas Eve night to the next several days. EC would bring big lake snows with prolonged SW flow. I'm all about what happens after the front, but that wave development just seems nearly implausible, very rare to see a low develop that quickly and deeply while racing up a front. The timing would have to be impeccable, and even then, the snow would move in and out at break neck speed. But you know what, we have something to track and hang our christmas hopes on, so for that I am grateful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: I'm all about what happens after the front, but that wave development just seems nearly implausible, very rare to see a low develop that quickly and deeply while racing up a front. The timing would have to be impeccable, and even then, the snow would move in and out at break neck speed. But you know what, we have something to track and hang our christmas hopes on, so for that I am grateful. I just don't see the front stalling when attached to a deepening sub 280 LP...unless a wave develops, of course. Either way, yes, grateful for something significant looking to take shape on Christmas Eve. Could be lots of fun, for a change!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 European delivers east of the lakes as well it just takes longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, vortmax said: -NAO blocking could definitely help with that... I’ll be looking for that on the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Slightly off topic but the super conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn occurs on Monday. The 2 planets are so close together ( 1/5 the diameter of the moon) then it will give the impression of the Christmas star. Even this weekend they will be really close to each other. Look in the southwestern sky right after sunset near where the sun sets. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Slightly off topic but the super conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn occurs on Monday. The 2 planets are so close together ( 1/5 the diameter of the moon) then it will give the impression of the Christmas star. Even this weekend they will be really close to each other. Look in the southwestern sky right after sunset near where the sun sets. I believe, if memory serves me, this is the first time in 800 years they’re visible this close? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 .A Massive Pattern Shift on Tap for the Holidays... After the passage of the last system for the short term, high pressure will briefly build into the area and result in dry conditions, however southerly flow will start to muster as it passes with progressively warmer air flowing into the region through Christmas Eve morning. This will result in 850 hPa temperatures surging toward +6C and any mixes of rain/snow trending decidedly toward rain as the next very amplified system approaches the region. Multi-model and ensemble consensus along with standard deviation anomaly charts favor a massively anomalous event in the period staring Christmas eve and extending through Christmas. This looks to result in very warm conditions and rain to start that time frame. In the warm advection ahead of the system, a negatively-tiled mid-level short wave looks to advance northeastward toward the area in a strengthening and highly-curved upper jet pattern. This would result in the potential for rather explosive cyclogenesis as the wave advances toward our area. Further, 850-700 and 700-500 hPa theta-e lapse rates go negative in a pattern with a negatively-tilted short wave traversing the area, which would be indicative of both a heavy precipitation potential as well as a thunder potential for Christmas eve. This is not to mention the presence of 120 kts of 0-6 km shear! With all of this in mind, it seems pretty clear the models are pointing at either a thunderstorm chance along the front or a very highly convective shower-line passage with the front. Either way, there will be a potential for very gusty conditions as the front crosses the area, which seems poised to most likely be on Christmas eve at this juncture. With the passage of the front, drastically colder air will invade the region, dropping those pre-frontal +6C 850 hPa temperatures down toward a consensus of -16 to -20C. This will get the lake effect machine going into Christmas and beyond with temperatures falling off well below normal by that juncture 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 36 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I believe, if memory serves me, this is the first time in 800 years they’re visible this close? The last time it was visible was 1226. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 48 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Slightly off topic but the super conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn occurs on Monday. The 2 planets are so close together ( 1/5 the diameter of the moon) then it will give the impression of the Christmas star. Even this weekend they will be really close to each other. Look in the southwestern sky right after sunset near where the sun sets. “The Christmas Star”. So cool! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 33 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: .A Massive Pattern Shift on Tap for the Holidays... After the passage of the last system for the short term, high pressure will briefly build into the area and result in dry conditions, however southerly flow will start to muster as it passes with progressively warmer air flowing into the region through Christmas Eve morning. This will result in 850 hPa temperatures surging toward +6C and any mixes of rain/snow trending decidedly toward rain as the next very amplified system approaches the region. Multi-model and ensemble consensus along with standard deviation anomaly charts favor a massively anomalous event in the period staring Christmas eve and extending through Christmas. This looks to result in very warm conditions and rain to start that time frame. In the warm advection ahead of the system, a negatively-tiled mid-level short wave looks to advance northeastward toward the area in a strengthening and highly-curved upper jet pattern. This would result in the potential for rather explosive cyclogenesis as the wave advances toward our area. Further, 850-700 and 700-500 hPa theta-e lapse rates go negative in a pattern with a negatively-tilted short wave traversing the area, which would be indicative of both a heavy precipitation potential as well as a thunder potential for Christmas eve. This is not to mention the presence of 120 kts of 0-6 km shear! With all of this in mind, it seems pretty clear the models are pointing at either a thunderstorm chance along the front or a very highly convective shower-line passage with the front. Either way, there will be a potential for very gusty conditions as the front crosses the area, which seems poised to most likely be on Christmas eve at this juncture. With the passage of the front, drastically colder air will invade the region, dropping those pre-frontal +6C 850 hPa temperatures down toward a consensus of -16 to -20C. This will get the lake effect machine going into Christmas and beyond with temperatures falling off well below normal by that juncture I love the wording on this. I get the feeling by the time we get to Sunday night Monday you will see some verbiage from KBUF regarding a big lake effect event for next weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 39 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: .A Massive Pattern Shift on Tap for the Holidays... Seems a little rambunctious regarding an XMas eve storm considering it's a week away and NWP hasn't showed much of a wave with much consistency the past few days. LES potential sure...but that usually only impacts a few areas so its hard to get jazzed about that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Definitely. Seems the energy is there for a wave, just a matter of timing. The EC has the primary LP much further south, then slowing move it NE, then retros to Hudson Bay. Either scenario will bring snow to WNY Christmas Eve night to the next several days. EC would bring big lake snows with prolonged SW flow.Yeah not happening, sorry next, Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Next event is looking disorganized... Temps start in the 20s and go just above freezing.. Hoping to pick up a quick "refresher" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Did you guys forget Matt will be out of town? He probably programmed the GFS.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Did you guys forget Matt will be out of town? He probably programmed the GFS.. That data was incorporated into the algorithm, lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Christmas event does have the hallmarks of a big LES storm east of the lakes. Only hope for the rest of us (beyond a spray) is that wave; which, as Delta said, is a very tentative situation. I’m sure all the mets around here are going to get all excited and promise a white Christmas, entirely forgetting that Roc does terrible with these set-ups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Finally some semblance of winter weather in the mid range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Can anyone with knowledge about contour line thickness tell me what each one represents? I know the 540 line is basically the freezing line what would 534, 528 etc be??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Pretty similar to last run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 18z GFS insisting we rock with our c.... out on Xmas eve... Im following this one big time because growing up on the jersey shore I’ve never had a snowstorm Christmas Eve into Christmas! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 You don't see this often.. Christmas Day Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Track was a little east verbatim so the Lake effect set up from Kroc to ksyr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 18z gfs. Don’t care if it’s Kuchera or fantasy land. It’s fun. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, 96blizz said: 18z gfs. Don’t care if it’s Kuchera or fantasy land. It’s fun. This would make this whole crappy year worth it! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 It's like non stop on the gfs lol (synoptic and LES) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's like non stop on the gfs lol (synoptic and LES) Ill be honest, I'm not convinced. Its still 6+ days out and the models the last few years have always shown cold and stormy pattern 5+ days away and then magically it turns to a warmer more strung out solution. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 GEFS clowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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