BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hey guys the 12z Euro was right. The king reigns. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty good look around xmas and all ensembles show it in some form or another That’s classic -NAO, -AO and +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: That’s classic -NAO, -AO and +PNA Yes and hints at a -EPO towards end of month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Still like my 2 to 5 i called a few days ago I'm more optimistic about this than I was on Sunday for ROC. I would not be surprised to see any outcome between the C-1" we've gotten a few times already and 6". Prediction: 2". I just can't see us getting into the 6-8 hours of moderate snow we'd need to get into the plowable 4-5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty good look around xmas and all ensembles show it in some form or another Now, can we get it to lock in for a while? I know you've been pretty optimistic about having a few weeks of good winter after Christmas into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Now, can we get it to lock in for a while? I know you've been pretty optimistic about having a few weeks of good winter after Christmas into January. If that forecast holds, and really it’s about 10 days out, it would easily usher in highs in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Now, can we get it to lock in for a while? I know you've been pretty optimistic about having a few weeks of good winter after Christmas into January. I'm of the notion that if we get cold air the lakes will provide. At least it increases our chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3k NAM is a crush job, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 My colleagues sat down at my table during our Staff Christmas party this evening and complained about "how COLD it was outside." I did a good job at not rolling my eyes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 And here I am freezing at 7° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 3k NAM is a crush job, so there's that. For you and that other guy 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: For you and that other guy Lol! I was thinking the same thing, but refrained. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: My colleagues sat down at my table during our Staff Christmas party this evening and complained about "how COLD it was outside." I did a good job at not rolling my eyes. I would’ve done a good job not laughing hysterically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: For you and that other guy But you get your LE (usually) lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: But you get your LE (usually) lol. I’m hoping you get 2 feet bro. Take some pics! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m hoping you get 2 feet bro. Take some pics! I will, if there's anything decent. Hopefully we all get surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Good map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 GFS Ratios will likely be 1:15 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hey guys new to the page. Southern Adirondack/great sacandaga lake region. Big snowmobiler, I was hoping the runs from earlier today would verify but it seems like everything is SE tonight. I'm just out of the LES region so we depend on regular storms for our trails. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS Ratios will likely be 1:15 or so. I hope it's wrong. I really have no confidence in anything decent but that would be brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, yankees102110 said: Hey guys new to the page. Southern Adirondack/great sacandaga lake region. Big snowmobiler, I was hoping the runs from earlier today would verify but it seems like everything is SE tonight. I'm just out of the LES region so we depend on regular storms for our trails. Welcome!! How far from long lake? I'll be there this weekend! 21/46er here, do you do any climbing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Welcome!! How far from long lake? I'll be there this weekend! 21/46er here, do you do any climbing? Long lake is about an 1.5h north of me. I use to hike some of the smaller mountains in the park but not anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I love this look. Syracuse would get hammered for a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 HI-res RGEM looks absolutely ridiculous in a good way... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 One thing to note for roc is we will have a 24 hour period after synoptic pulls away of ne flow off the lake. Kinda rare to have that long a period of ne wind. I could see 3 to 5 inches on top of what we get from storm. Its a wild card. Pure Ne flow lake effect is kinda rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Wow, a couple of these 00Z models keep me hopeful. Still no clarity even as we get closer. GFS finally has us getting an inch or so here. haha Sticking with 3 to 6 inches...3 inches if we just get a general light snow with decent ratios...6 is possible, as there are often some surprise bands on the NW side of these systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Absolutely remarkable the spread on these. It’s 24 hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Absolutely remarkable the spread on these. It’s 24 hours out! Gives me about 2" QPF... would be absolutely epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Xmas day is all kinds of 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Going buy old maps precip on ukmet looks a bit better than 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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