vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 00z models seem to be taking the primary and scooting along the gulf coast, then a quick transfer to the gulf stream and up the coast like a Miller A. We need more of a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: 00z HRRR is SE Wow. The most sane/reasonable map of the day, and that’s even before we divide by two. Nail that one to the board. I think we have a winner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Sref jumped south as well..I think we all knew that was coming lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I figured the models might go back a bit since the 12Z runs...but not this much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Maybe a hunch, but I still think there's gonna be some surprises with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Maybe a hunch, but I still think there's gonna be some surprises with this one. Yeah I wouldn't be surprised by 2" of dust or 2'. Super low confidence in anything until I look out the window with this one. So much model waffling and many moving parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Maybe a hunch, but I still think there's gonna be some surprises with this one. Everything is sooo close for us, so just a 25 to 50 mile difference in track can definitely lead to some surprises (good or bad). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Everything is sooo close for us, so just a 25 to 50 mile difference in track can definitely lead to some surprises (good or bad). We are in much the same boat as you guys but these shifts south and East all day have really been bad news for us. I’m pretty convinced in Pittsburgh we aren’t getting even warning level snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 HRW models looking really bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 We just need our break is all...we’re in a 20 game goal less drought and we’re squeezing the sticks a little tighter with each shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, KPITSnow said: We are in much the same boat as you guys but these shifts south and East all day have really been bad news for us. I’m pretty convinced in Pittsburgh we aren’t getting even warning level snows. Your zone and up through the Finger Lakes and Central NY can't seem to buy a solid snowstorm these days. It does sting a bit with years of cutters and then getting whiffed to the south and east. I think you guys may even be ahead of us in the snow department this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: We just need our break is all...we’re in a 20 game goal less drought and we’re squeezing the sticks a little tighter with each shift... When is the last time you had a 12 inch plus synoptic snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Your zone and up through the Finger Lakes and Central NY can't seem to buy a solid snowstorm these days. It does sting a bit with years of cutters and then getting whiffed to the south and east. I think you guys may even be ahead of us in the snow department this winter? We had a nice 7 inch storm at the start of December, but those are what we get...our overperfomers get us 7 inches when we are forecast to get 4...meanwhile if you drive 50 miles in any direction from Pittsburgh really you can find places that have had 12-18 inch events when we haven't had a 12 inch storm in 10 years+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 We were just short in November 2019 with 11”...we see our big snows from lake effect off Erie on a SW wind. If I can phone a friend I’ll call BuffWeather to get the details of exactly when it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: When is the last time you had a 12 inch plus synoptic snow? Nov 11-12 last year. 11.7" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Nov 11-12 last year. I thought we were just shy but my memory is as good as 10 second Tom in 50 first dates... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: I thought we were just shy but my memory is as good as 10 second Tom in 50 first dates... 11.7" is close enough to 12". In Jan of 2019 Buf had two 20"+ storms. (LES) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 What is odd is I saw a stat today that it was since February 27th of this past winter we were below freezing all day for the high...it was 290 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It’s a sad state of affairs when you’re compulsively checking the NAM for this kind of return. If it can’t show any promise we are really hurting. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: 11.7" is close enough to 12". In Jan of 2019 Buf had two 20"+ storms. (LES) What’s this LES you speak of??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: What’s this LES you speak of??? March 2018 had our last true 12+ synoptic storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: It’s a sad state of affairs when you’re compulsively checking the NAM for this kind of return. If it can’t show any promise we are really hurting. Lol I think we may need to take our inch or two of snow (if that?) that we get the next couple days and enjoy them before they melt away quickly when the temps hit the 40s again over the weekend. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 11.7" is close enough to 12". In Jan of 2019 Buf had two 20"+ storms. (LES) We have had one 10+ storm on March 21st 2018, and haven't had a foot plus storm since 2010. It has been brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Sref have come down. But have a better cluster of 4 to 8 in roc. Avg 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: March 2018 had our last true 12+ synoptic storm. So we do get about 1 per year. That’s not a bad average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Still like my 2 to 5 i called a few days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, tim123 said: Still like my 2 to 5 i called a few days ago I'm still hanging on to 6-8. Think we're gonna be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Time to get drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Pretty good look around xmas and all ensembles show it in some form or another 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Time to get drunk Waaaay ahead of you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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