Syrmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6.9” using Kuchera...not good, that means 4-5” in reality. Which is about what I’ve been thinking for a high end here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: At least it’s not it’s first “cal” I always enjoyed the wxrisk misspellings and grammar murder in his maps, discussions and posts...while sh!tmouthing everyone else as being dumb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: I always enjoyed the wxrisk misspellings and grammar murder in his maps, discussions and posts...while sh!tmouthing everyone else as being dumb. LOL! Same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 6.9” using Kuchera...not good, that means 4-5” in reality. Which is about what I’ve been thinking for a high end here. It was half of that at 12z so we got that going for us! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 0z FTW baby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: 0z FTW baby! You say that but...pics or it didn’t happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 So usually we get a NW trend about 36-48 hours before these storms; followed by ticks back SE. I’m bracing for that inevitability but hoping for something different. We are hoping for a stronger storm, a primary that carries up into our area, a closer track, lake enhancement or a combo of any of them! Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 ‘Twas the night before Christmas and all through the forum, not a creature was stirring...because their houses were flooded... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Something to note. Many times these tend move 25 to 50 miles further nw than even modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Dave i think its more of a interaction of upper low in Ohio and surface low on coast. In all honesty I never seen models this much at odds. It sure is a volatile and tricky set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: So usually we get a NW trend about 36-48 hours before these storms; followed by ticks back SE. I’m bracing for that inevitability but hoping for something different. We are hoping for a stronger storm, a primary that carries up into our area, a closer track, lake enhancement or a combo of any of them! Fingers crossed. 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Something to note. Many times these tend move 25 to 50 miles further nw than even modeled These two comments are about as contradictory as the models But so is everything in the year 2020... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: ‘Twas the night before Christmas and all through the forum, not a creature was stirring...because their houses were flooded... What about the snow behind it on Christmas day? That's usually what cold fronts do lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: What about the snow behind it on Christmas day? That's usually what cold fronts do lol Lake effect? On W or WSW flow...Surely you jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I haven’t seen this posted here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 35 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said: I90 corridor really walking the fine line between a plowable snow or just a coating. I hate being way up there on that steep gradient. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Lake effect? On W or WSW flow...Surely you jest. Since when? Lol Winds almost always turn NW behind cold fronts..I get Lake effect Ahead of these passages.. No sense worrying about a day 10 prog lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Dave i think its more of a interaction of upper low in Ohio and surface low on coast. In all honesty I never seen models this much at odds. It sure is a volatile and tricky set up. Agreed. That’s what I meant by a primary that tracks up towards us. Gonna be tight man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Since when? Lol Winds almost always turn NW behind cold fronts..I get Lake effect Ahead of these passages.. No sense worrying about a day 10 prog lol I was just about to post this, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Srefs are insane. Spread is 0 to 20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, tim123 said: Srefs are insane. Spread is 0 to 20 inches. Lock it in!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 22 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Agreed. That’s what I meant by a primary that tracks up towards us. Gonna be tight man Some models are stronger with the first low and the transfer happens later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Since when? Lol Winds almost always turn NW behind cold fronts..I get Lake effect Ahead of these passages.. No sense worrying about a day 10 prog lol After a front...IMBY...For a few hours perhaps multibands. We *Almost never* get anything noteworthy from the lake (again, down here) directly behind CFROPAs. Flow goes westerly down the lake axis most of the time fairly quickly or it dries out fast in an arctic airmass. We might get scraps when the olde broom effect kicks in if a real band gets going up north and a s/w kicks it south off the lake, setting up multi bands. That’s what I’ve seen here usually. Not a fan of relying on LES other than as mood snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 HRRR definitely doesn't look as good for us. The secondary takes over faster. It just looks weaker in general. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: HRRR definitely doesn't look as good for us. The secondary takes over faster. Good, storm cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Some models are stronger with the first low and the transfer happens later. This is really the key and likely why the different models have different output. The 12z NAM had a stronger primary which provided more lift/precip to the west longer. My rusty thoughts are to keep an eye on the surface maps and that primary low strength. Right now the primary LP over north TX is 1010 and further north than what most models init. Could be a good sign...00z HRRR doesn't seem to init right either. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Kuchera but it’s not bad... 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 How much farther north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 18z Yeah. I deleted it. You’re too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 00z HRRR is SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 00z NAM looking SE as well so far thru 24hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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