Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The local met at the same station that said 2-5 earlier a different met now says 1-3...I think they ride the models worse than we do A lot of them are usually in rip n read model hugging mode... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 What the 12Z giveth, the 18Z taketh away... My 3 to 6 inch call for the Cuse "may" work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS Is going to be pretty far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Lol....is the GFS going to score with its stubborness in not giving any snowfall to the Syracuse area? Still refusing to on 18Z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 First map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: First map I don’t buy that 1”. The model Todd shows has snow over Buffalo for 9 hours. That rate would literally be flurries the entire time. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Not gonna fixate on 18Z runs other than eyeball trends. The main 00Z and 12Z runs will be of more interest. We'll have plenty of Real Time info by the time 12Z comes out tomorrow, to see which model is being naughty...or nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Then this shows up. I can’t sort sh*t out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The GFS is straight garbage, toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 This is what I need, screw that synoptic crap.lol (I know it's not a popular opinion haha) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 There are some really smart people on here. Let's do our own model diagnostic discussion. Perfect example too as there seems to be some significant discrepancy very close to the main event. Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 This is wild so close to an event. About to stop model watching and just wait for radar because the more models run the more we're lost. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Spectrum news just said 8-14" for the Cuse, RLMAO, their straight nuts! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: This is wild so close to an event. About to stop model watching and just wait for radar because the more models run the more we're lost. I agree. The storm is out in the Midwest towards Oklahoma and Kansas and has really blossomed. If you look at most of the models they have underdone this feature already. Could make for an interesting overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is what I need, screw that synoptic crap.lol (I know it's not a popular opinion haha) Lol if you could pull that LP about 250 miles west in Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Good chance of a white Christmas if the models are correct with this CF.. Wasn't long ago the GFS was showing nothing the entire run lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The GFS is straight garbage, toss it Not when the ensembles look like this. Hopefully we all cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not when the ensembles look like this. Hopefully we all cash in. I’d take .3 equivalent at KBUF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Thats one large SHP, WOW! Just heard The Weather Channel's forecast for here an lol! I was very surprised cause they usually ride the GFS but their riding the EURO this go. 1-3 Wednesday, 5-8 Wednesday night, 1-2 for Thursday so IDK what to think about this event anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Pretty much daytime highs..(Christmas)(can't see between frames) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Thats a cold Christmas morning thats for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Thats one large SHP, WOW! Just heard The Weather Channel's forecast for here an lol! I was very surprised cause they usually ride the GFS but their riding the EURO this go. 1-3 Wednesday, 5-8 Wednesday night, 1-2 for Thursday so IDK what to think about this event anymore! European shows like an inch or two lol (3" for syracuse) Not sure what they are going off..I thought they used the IBM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 33 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Spectrum news just said 8-14" for the Cuse, RLMAO, their straight nuts! I saw Teske on Ch. 9 just put out 4-9" for our area - Cuse to Utica...9-14" from Cortland and south. Seemed reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: European shows like an inch or two lol (3" for syracuse) Not sure what they are going off..I thought they used the IBM I haven't got a clue, perhaps one crazy looking Ensamble member, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: I saw Teske on Ch. 9 just put out 4-9" for our area - Cuse to Utica...9-14" from Cortland and south. Seemed reasonable. Not one model has us getting over 3" so IDK where thses guys are getting their guidance from?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well I just looked at the NAM more in depth and thats where we get the most snow from, the NAM but hey, one of them has to be right, right? The UKMET smoked us, no? so idk Bri, I hope we all get smoked and I hope some of the CI banding can make it this far North and West but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Not one model has us getting over 3" so IDK where thses guys are getting their guidance from?? Have you missed the last 6 hours here? Almost the entire "B" Team suite of models pushes about 6" snow into SYR/UCA. The GooFuS and Euro remain "outliers" with half that (at best). Not sure which idea is correct but we will soon find out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Have you missed the last 6 hours here? Almost the entire "B" Team suite of models pushes about 6" snow into SYR/UCA. The GooFuS and Euro remain "outliers" with half that (at best). Not sure which idea is correct but we will soon find out... We sure will and I don't look at the SREF's as thats where most of those totals were being taken from I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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