Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Canadian is mother of God post worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Would probably be double digits into syracuse..3"-6" type event for most of us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Sorry with tax it was like $900 https://www.lowes.com/pd/Ariens-Classic-24-24-in-208-cc-Two-Stage-Self-Propelled-Gas-Snow-Blower-with-Push-Button-Electric-Start/1000228265 That’s exactly what I got last year. I plug mine in to start it. The pull cord is amazingly easy. I only got to use it a couple times because of how little snow we got. Unfortunately, since then my back has gotten even worse so I’m thinking I should’ve gotten a kubota rider. Hey, who doesn’t have 20k to throw at snow removal!?!? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Better view. This is a realistic looking outcome. I’d like to see more lake enhancement. With the LP placed a little higher on latitude, we should stand a better chance of a NE wind as opposed to E or ENE. I'd bet we'll see a nice strip of 6-8" along the S Shore in this scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Would probably be double digits into syracuse..3"-6" type event for most of us.. Juiced up for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Good trends, let's keep it going lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, vortmax said: I'd bet we'll see a nice strip of 6-8" along the S Shore. Yep Vortmax, that’s exactly what I’d expect to see! As long as these shifts hold, I’d hope to see a sweet spot of 10”+ somewhere in SE Monroe county. It’s where the enhancement and best synoptic dynamics meet. A double lollipop! I’m in northern Monroe so I’ll be living off mainly the enhancement; unless we see continued bumps NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yep Vortmax, that’s exactly what I’d expect to see! As long as these shifts hold, I’d hope to see a sweet spot of 10”+ somewhere in SE Monroe county. It’s where the enhancement and best synoptic dynamics meet. A double lollipop! I’m in northern Monroe so I’ll be living off mainly the enhancement; unless we see continued bumps NW. Man that is some optimism! I feel like such a scrooge on this one. Just seems like so much can go wrong for those of us so far North. I would be astounded if we got over 4", expecting 1-3' in KROC, and I'll actually be quite happy with that. Just cover the grass for a few days please! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 BW!!! Did you see the Christmas miracle AND the LES event after!? Holy $?@! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Tracks are pretty close, it's the axis of precipitation that is in question.. Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: BW!!! Did you see the Christmas miracle AND the LES event after!? Holy $?@! First weenie les run of the season, would be 1-2’ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Man that is some optimism! I feel like such a scrooge on this one. Just seems like so much can go wrong for those of us so far North. I would be astounded if we got over 4", expecting 1-3' in KROC, and I'll actually be quite happy with that. Just cover the grass for a few days please! Thinking same for SYR immediate area...i think we are seeing the high water mark for qpf out of the 12Z runs. Wouldn't be surprised to see some adjustments back the other way in the next 24 hrs. But this was looking like a shanked FG a day or two ago. BGM->ALB are looking great for 8-12" if i was to throw out a number at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ukie crushes Albany 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yep Vortmax, that’s exactly what I’d expect to see! As long as these shifts hold, I’d hope to see a sweet spot of 10”+ somewhere in SE Monroe county. It’s where the enhancement and best synoptic dynamics meet. A double lollipop! I’m in northern Monroe so I’ll be living off mainly the enhancement; unless we see continued bumps NW. Looks like when the synoptic moisture is the deepest over us the winds are nearly due East, then as the moisture pulls away the winds begin to turn NE. Just not sure we can get everything in the right place at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 UKIE looks west? That should be a crusher for eastern NY once QPF maps come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Looks like when the synoptic moisture is the deepest over us the winds are nearly due East, then as the moisture pulls away the winds begin to turn NE. Just not sure we can get everything in the right place at the right time. That timing is a big deal. I still think we can eek out 6" from this. We'll see. Syrmax mention this run is the high water mark - I recall the NAM usually being too wet about 24hr out, but not many others. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I believe in icon. Lol gotta be correct once ad awhile. I has been consistent for like 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaunk79 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 To much cold, dry air in place. Models are unable to take that into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 What a wonderful day this has been. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We snow and snow hard cause she's nowhere near done trending. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 5:43 AM, 96blizz said: 5 days to go is an eternity for a system like this. GFS at 6z was also NW by a good bit. For our area we just need a couple of things to happen. The High position is off allowing for the primary to drive further North. The system isn’t as wrapped up allowing for a larger moisture field. The Euro at 12z had about .4 LE of snow for Binghamton - 0z had 1” plus and there are DAYS to sort this out Having done this for 30+ years I know well enough to not give up! Are the odds against us now? Sure. But modeled snow is just that... FWIW - I also lived the first 39 years of my life in NJ/PA near 95, so I know heartbreak with storms like this as well as most! EDIT while a terrible model the 6z ICON shows what’s still possible and how it could happen. Run a low inside NJ that’s less consolidated than the Euro and we see many inches of powder. (2nd image) Just quoting myself from Saturday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Glad you have yourself a big Weenie, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 UKIE looks like a crush job for SYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Wow! Warning snow all the way!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Tossin’ weenies!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We just need the Euro to follow suit just a bit and we'll all be tossing weenie's, Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: UKIE looks like a crush job for SYR Looks to be about an inch LE for Syracuse. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, tim123 said: I believe in icon. Lol gotta be correct once ad awhile. I has been consistent for like 5 days. Most of the models came towards the ICON runs...I like the fact we will squeeze more out of this storm than expected. Always my favorite type of events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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