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Upstate/Eastern New York


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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That’s exactly what I got last year. I plug mine in to start it. The pull cord is amazingly easy. I only got to use it a couple times because of how little snow we got. Unfortunately, since then my back has gotten even worse so I’m thinking I should’ve gotten a kubota rider. Hey, who doesn’t have 20k to throw at snow removal!?!? :lol:

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5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Better view. This is a realistic looking outcome. I’d like to see more lake enhancement. With the LP placed a little higher on latitude, we should stand a better chance of a NE wind as opposed to E or ENE. image.thumb.png.e794d377fa9350aaccef996544d78b2d.png

I'd bet we'll see a nice strip of 6-8" along the S Shore in this scenario. 

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Just now, vortmax said:

I'd bet we'll see a nice strip of 6-8" along the S Shore.

Yep Vortmax, that’s exactly what I’d expect to see! As long as these shifts hold, I’d hope to see a sweet spot of 10”+ somewhere in SE Monroe county. It’s where the enhancement and best synoptic dynamics meet. A double lollipop! I’m in northern Monroe so I’ll be living off mainly the enhancement; unless we see continued bumps NW. 

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12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Yep Vortmax, that’s exactly what I’d expect to see! As long as these shifts hold, I’d hope to see a sweet spot of 10”+ somewhere in SE Monroe county. It’s where the enhancement and best synoptic dynamics meet. A double lollipop! I’m in northern Monroe so I’ll be living off mainly the enhancement; unless we see continued bumps NW. 

Man that is some optimism!  I feel like such a scrooge on this one.  Just seems like so much can go wrong for those of us so far North.  I would be astounded if we got over 4", expecting 1-3' in KROC, and I'll actually be quite happy with that.  Just cover the grass for a few days please! 

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3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Man that is some optimism!  I feel like such a scrooge on this one.  Just seems like so much can go wrong for those of us so far North.  I would be astounded if we got over 4", expecting 1-3' in KROC, and I'll actually be quite happy with that.  Just cover the grass for a few days please! 

Thinking same for SYR immediate area...i think we are seeing the high water mark for qpf out of the 12Z runs.  Wouldn't be surprised to see some adjustments back the other way in the next 24 hrs.  But this was looking like a shanked FG a day or two ago.  BGM->ALB are looking great for 8-12" if i was to throw out a number at this point.

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25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Yep Vortmax, that’s exactly what I’d expect to see! As long as these shifts hold, I’d hope to see a sweet spot of 10”+ somewhere in SE Monroe county. It’s where the enhancement and best synoptic dynamics meet. A double lollipop! I’m in northern Monroe so I’ll be living off mainly the enhancement; unless we see continued bumps NW. 

Looks like when the synoptic moisture is the deepest over us the winds are nearly due East, then as the moisture pulls away the winds begin to turn NE.  Just not sure we can get everything in the right place at the right time. 

 

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2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Looks like when the synoptic moisture is the deepest over us the winds are nearly due East, then as the moisture pulls away the winds begin to turn NE.  Just not sure we can get everything in the right place at the right time. 

 

That timing is a big deal. I still think we can eek out 6" from this. We'll see. Syrmax mention this run is the high water mark - I recall the NAM usually being too wet about 24hr out, but not many others. Thoughts?

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On 12/12/2020 at 5:43 AM, 96blizz said:

5 days to go is an eternity for a system like this. GFS at 6z was also NW by a good bit.

For our area we just need a couple of things to happen. The High position is off allowing for the primary to drive further North. The system isn’t as wrapped up allowing for a larger moisture field. 

The Euro at 12z had about .4 LE of snow for Binghamton - 0z had 1” plus and there are DAYS to sort this out  

Having done this for 30+ years I know well enough to not give up!  Are the odds against us now?  Sure. But modeled snow is just that...

FWIW - I also lived the first 39 years of my life in NJ/PA near 95, so I know heartbreak with storms like this as well as most!

EDIT while a terrible model the 6z ICON shows what’s still possible and how it could happen. Run a low inside NJ that’s less consolidated than the Euro and we see many inches of powder.   (2nd image)

14865490-16C0-4CDD-9855-025A278E8534.png

987D88D2-9C1C-4815-99AE-0CAA989710DA.png

Just quoting myself from Saturday. :weenie:

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