wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, 96blizz said: The nyc crew is going bonkers. Lol We all knew it was coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I haven't posted one Kuchera map this year But you can add a couple inches if we can get into some better ratios..(I think LEK said POSSIBLE 12-14-1) Still need other guidance on board lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 3k Ratios will matter if this happens. Still a ways to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: I haven't posted one Kuchera map this year But you can add a couple inches if we can get into some better ratios..(I think LEK said POSSIBLE 12-14-1) Still need other l guidance on board lol Just now, 96blizz said: Ratios will matter if this happens. Still a ways to go... Lockstep Wolfie! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: I haven't posted one Kuchera map this year But you can add a couple inches if we can get into some better ratios..(I think LEK said POSSIBLE 12-14-1) Still need other l guidance on board lol Just about to say that the northern-end of the precip will def be higher than 10:1. Likely 12:1 synoptic and 14:1+ for LE or so (just like you said). I'll take a 20% bump with additional LE as well! I'm sure Dave and Tim on board as well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: We all knew it was coming... No one knew except weenies wishing this north People thought the high up north was going to suppress this to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: If only i lived in Cooperstown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Looks like BUF is starting to buy-in a little: Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 526 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 NYZ013-014-020-021-161030- Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany- 526 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. A coastal storm could generate several inches of snow across the Finger Lakes and portions of the Western Southern Tier Wednesday afternoon and night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 3k That's a sweet lake effect band just west of Toronto tomorrow. With a further north track, it’ll help reduce the dry air in the atmosphere and help seed the lake clouds for better lake effect for us. Good all-around for all of us in ON and NY. Let’s see if the RGEM follows suit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Not much on the nmm verbatim but still in the LR for that model.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM is even further N than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No one knew except weenies wishing this north People thought the high up north was going to suppress this to the south. No, it's the NYC weenies wishing this wouldn't come NW like the majority of systems do. We both know how many times we've been burned on the coast. The forecasted confluence was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12z RGEM is coming in further north and west as well. Aligned with 3km NAM. Has accumulating snow in Buffalo and Syracuse. Maybe a couple inches esp for Syracuse? Sweet LES band in Toronto before it moves further south as winds change orientation. Not a huge expert on lake effect so maybe somebody can chime in on that for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 ArW and Nssl look like they track over SNJ.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I’ve had a skinny band off Huron/Georgian Bay for about 20 minutes and everything is white. This is a very fluffy snow and if this would persist for hours it would accumulate quickly. The ground froze last night which will also help with less melting, I am thing 3-5” for metro and north with ratios of 15 to 1 and more qpf in the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 ICON buries us. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'm starting to like this more for areas SW of Lake Ontario. Looks like we should be able to get some enhancement with a more northern track, especially ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Icon has 6-9" for Buffalo lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: ICON buries us. Lol Now it's too north even for me. Banding north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Tossed. What even is that? Leftover inverted trough just hanging out over all of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I told you guys, king cras (obviously joking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM looks a little farther NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tossed. What even is that? Leftover inverted trough just hanging out over all of us? I’ve been saying that for days!!! I mentioned the inverted trough idea at least 3 days ago...it was clear in all the models a trough or low was near Ohio or NW PA but moisture never made it up here, now we’re 24 to 36 hours away I think the idea has legs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Wasn’t there a storm last year that the icon nailed when all the other models lost it? If anyone remembers this it’s Dave or Wolfie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM came NW a big bump. Loving the trend! We’ve gotta bear in mind that this is not atypical for 48 hours out and that they usually correct back at a certain point. I wonder what the ICON has consistently seen to do stubbornly kept us in the game? I think the ICON got an upgrade last year. 0z EPS were pretty far NW too. I’d love to see one of the big operational show it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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