wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GGEM scenario would most likely give us a white Christmas once the front moved through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ukmet has been pretty steady as well these last few runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ukmet has been pretty steady as well these last few runs.. I'll gladly take .9" QPF with these thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Well guys we got the king cras!! Game on Didn't even know it still existed..lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Well guys we got the king cras!! Game on Didn't even know it still existed..lol Lock it in. Where the heck did you find CRAS?!?!? Is that the Brazil model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Lock it in. Where the heck did you find CRAS?!?!? Is that the Brazil model? Some world class Dumpster Diving right there! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro says enjoy the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Fading away. Consensus growing and it's not working out for me nor anyone else here. Can't help but thinking one or two more ticks SE. The fringe, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said: Fading away. Consensus growing and it's not working out for me nor anyone else here. Can't help but thinking one or two more ticks SE. The fringe, man. If tonight's 00z suite tick further south then I'll be very concerned; waffling is normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ukmet has been pretty steady as well these last few runs.. Nice rare Ontario band on the west coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, vortmax said: Nice rare Ontario band on the west coast.... And it’s the only damn model that shows it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Details keep shifting of course but look at this disaster. GFS has had me thinking it may not be too early to turn out the lights on another waste product of a December... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, sferic said: If tonight's 00z suite tick further south then I'll be very concerned; waffling is normal The confluence is strong with this one, we could still get smoked in the negative direction but this is still fine: county-wide 6-12 is still good enough for me. We must watch tonight's runs either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 This is a good map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, crossbowftw3 said: The confluence is strong with this one, we could still get smoked in the negative direction but this is still fine: county-wide 6-12 is still good enough for me. We must watch tonight's runs either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Details keep shifting of course but look at this disaster. GFS has had me thinking it may not be too early to turn out the lights on another waste product of a December... We would take this, finally gets the cold into our area. Cutters are many time pattern changers. That right there is our negative epo. Would be lots of les with that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This is going to be a looooooong non-winter for the Great Lakes region, especially Upstate New York. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 For the mean time, enjoy what little dusting you get tonight before it melts in the sunshine tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: We would take this, finally gets the cold into our area. Cutters are many time pattern changers. Yeah. The ‘WE’ doesn’t include me. The BUF and Watertown folks just love these disasters. In ROC they mean heavy rain followed by wind and cold. Zero snow. Ugly. Sorry. I’m bitter. Im so disappointed in this winter. We can’t win. Do you know how absolutely disgusted I’m gonna be when Philly has 3x the snow total than we do? Puke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: This is going to be a looooooong non-winter for the Great Lakes region, especially Upstate New York. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Yeah. The ‘WE’ doesn’t include me. The BUF and Watertown folks just love these disasters. In ROC they mean heavy rain followed by wind and cold. Zero snow. Ugly. Sorry. I’m bitter. Im so disappointed in this winter. We can’t win. Do you know how absolutely disgusted I’m gonna be when Philly has 3x the snow total than we do? Puke It disgusts me that the GFS has been locked in for DAYS and many models are agreeing with it as we get closer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: For the mean time, enjoy what little dusting you get tonight before it melts in the sunshine tomorrow. Heck, I'm a bit envious of your dusting out this way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Razor thin band but snowing pretty good out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Stash said: Heck, I'm a bit envious of your dusting out this way. Ha! Didn't get it...yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yep Not everyone. Hey look boys we’ve had many tough starts before and have had some of our most epic events as those shitty starts transformed in incredible events. Hold the faith, or get drunk trying!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Ha! Didn't get it...yet? Nah, I'm in Eastern Upstate NY, a little north of Albany. I'll get minor amounts of lake effect each year, but most snow comes synoptically. There have been a couple of exceptions, but it seems more and more east coast storms slam southern and eastern New England. Growing up in interior CT it was the opposite - I'd get mixed or flipped to rain while Albany and other areas of Upstate got hit hard. All about the track. I need those storms to hug the coast, or hit SE Mass. Where you are, you probably need them to come right up over my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Stash said: Nah, I'm in Eastern Upstate NY, a little north of Albany. I'll get minor amounts of lake effect each year, but most snow comes synoptically. There have been a couple of exceptions, but it seems more and more east coast storms slam southern and eastern New England. Growing up in interior CT it was the opposite - I'd get mixed or flipped to rain while Albany and other areas of Upstate got hit hard. All about the track. I need those storms to hug the coast, or hit SE Mass. Where you are, you probably need them to come right up over my backyard. Yup. In the 90s, it was one storm after another riding up the Apps and pounding all of the areas that have been getting synoptically screwed the past several years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 31 minutes ago, sferic said: That map was probably done with older data. Come later on it'll be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Getting thundersnow here lol I'll see if I can catch any on video lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Starting to get more organized.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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