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Bills needed that pick 6.  Nice recovery.  In wx news...Bastardi hyperventilating on TWTR about I-95 (BWI to NYC) being destroyed.  Meanwhile he shows a GFS Kuchera Clown map with basically I-95 south of NYC with little accumulation.  But oh!!! The wind! It's like WuFlu hype. Everyone.Is.Going.To.Die.

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The SW responsible for Thursdays event is just entering the PNW so we might see some very welcome changes with tonight's 00Z runs or wee may see some heartbreaking changes.  It should be sampled much better so if nothing changes and they stay the course, then all that talk about the SW still being out over the open waters is absolute garbage but we'll see real soon.  I'm not expecting any real big changes but we might just see the start of a trend either to the NW or further S&E. 

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Just now, Syrmax said:

Bills needed that pick 6.  Nice recovery.  In wx news...Bastardi hyperventilating on TWTR about I-95 (BWI to NYC) being destroyed.  Meanwhile he shows a GFS Kuchera Clown map with basically I-85 south of NYC with little accumulation.  But oh!!! The wind! It's like WuFlu hype. Everyone.Is.Going.To.Die.

Hes also been touting a very warm Winter from start to finish with very little snow so he's been right so far!

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2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

The SW responsible for Thursdays event is just entering the PNW so we might see some very welcome changes with tonight's 00Z runs or wee may see some heartbreaking changes.  It should be sampled much better so if nothing changes and they stay the course, then all that talk about the SW still being out over the open waters is absolute garbage but we'll see real soon.  I'm not expecting any real big changes but we might just see the start of a trend either to the NW or further S&E. 

If it's gonna miss, hopefully it's a shank... :)

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Looks like we could get could some multi-lake lake effect connections tomorrow night/Tuesday. Nothing major, but could provide at least a little bit of snowy sanity.

Between 00Z runs and 12Z runs tomorrow is when we'll see any major shifts to the NW.....every other storm we don't want  NW shifts, and it happens, creating cutter after cutter. Will we get screwed again with NO NW shift? Stay tuned.....

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15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Looks like we could get could some multi-lake lake effect connections tomorrow night/Tuesday. Nothing major, but could provide at least a little bit of snowy sanity.

Between 00Z runs and 12Z runs tomorrow is when we'll see any major shifts to the NW.....every other storm we don't want  NW shifts, and it happens, creating cutter after cutter. Will we get screwed again with NO NW shift? Stay tuned.....

OK  Nostradamus :lol:, and we cant even get 1 lake to cooperate never mind a multi lake connection!

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30 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Bills needed that pick 6.  Nice recovery.  In wx news...Bastardi hyperventilating on TWTR about I-95 (BWI to NYC) being destroyed.  Meanwhile he shows a GFS Kuchera Clown map with basically I-95 south of NYC with little accumulation.  But oh!!! The wind! It's like WuFlu hype. Everyone.Is.Going.To.Die.

Is he flying the flag yet?

hmmm... now I remember why I unfollowed him on social media...

 

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13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Looks like the Icon decided to abandon us.

Honestly Matt, if the look was the Icon and the 0z NAM, at 3 days out, I’d still have hope. But they (and the Ukie) are off on their own. And none of them are great models this far out. Obviously, I’ll still watch but we all know this one was sunk when the EURO jumped to the GFS. It’s one more feather in the cap of the goofus. It really has been hot for this lame winter. 

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4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Honestly Matt, if the look was the Icon and the 0z NAM, at 3 days out, I’d still have hope. But they (and the Ukie) are off on their own. And none of them are great models this far out. Obviously, I’ll still watch but we all know this one was sunk when the EURO jumped to the GFS. It’s one more feather in the cap of the goofus. It really has been hot for this lame winter. 

Right on. Meh. I'm going to bed. Sleep well, Dave! (and everybody else!)

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9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Dec 15 was the warmest ever by almost 5 degrees, Dec 2018 was +3.2


Average temp 42.1    2015

Dec 2015 had 1" of snow

Dec 2018 had 14.1"

There is a very strong correlation between above average snowfall in Dec and above average snowfall years at KBUF. Mainly due to lake Erie freezing in late jan/early feb. We get about 10 weeks of lake effect potential each year, have to make full use of it.

You can see the top 10 list of all weather data for KBUF here

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10

42.1F? Wow that's warm. The mean at YYZ was 39.3F. December 2015 was the warmest ever recorded and also least snowiest ever. Good stuff. If Jan isn't frigid, you might even get lake effect mid-late Feb if it can start-up lol.

Cool. Will check that link out right now. Thanks! 

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

42.1F? Wow that's warm. The mean at YYZ was 39.3F. December 2015 was the warmest ever recorded and also least snowiest ever. Good stuff. If Jan isn't frigid, you might even get lake effect mid-late Feb if it can start-up lol.

Cool. Will check that link out right now. Thanks! 

In a similar Nina pattern go look at what happened off of Ontario in 2006-2007.  Lake Erie was on the verge of freezing, if it was 1-2 weeks sooner similar totals would have been found off of Erie.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2006-2007&event=L

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