crossbowftw3 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: But you're right.... only Lake effect concerns here lol. Doesn't seem like anyone else out this way is here. And kuchera weenie is wild Saving this to the portfolio ha Thoughts remain unchanged of course from earlier...30" highly unlikely but widespread 6-10+ where probably equally as numerous to widespread reports of 10"+ happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: GEFS fwiw Control goes north, GEFS go south. Haha! Wild ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: They posted this 10 mins ago. I agree the current crew at the NWS is a little lackluster. I have no idea why they wouldn’t at least discuss the potential of a significant event, as it certainly exists (however unlikely...it’s certainly not zero 4-5 days out) When all they do all day is look at the weather, you would think they would be at least a little more interested in discussing the details and nuances of forecasts and model trends. It’s almost as if they aren’t even interested/excited about weather, It’s disappointing. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 31 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: But you're right.... only Lake effect concerns here lol. Doesn't seem like anyone else out this way is here. And kuchera weenie is wild In this scenario Allegheny co in WNY is under a WSW and advisories got Catt, Wyoming, Chautauqua and S. Erie...one more bump and we’re singing a much different tune 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Ha! Heaviest snow axis shifts NW 75 miles in a single run! Crazy It's way too early to latch onto model run-to-run gyrations. But I guess it's what we do best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 26 minutes ago, Syrmax said: It's way too early to latch onto model run-to-run gyrations. But I guess it's what we do best. Yeah. I know it’s ridiculous. It’s kind of part of the fun for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Has anyone noticed how the GFS seems to really overestimate precip fields over the last year or so? Look at the current forecast depiction compared to the radar. These are at the exact same times. It’s not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Composite looks a bit more realistic.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Someone between Harrisburg and Worcester is going to get a ridiculous total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Composite looks a bit more realistic.. Good call, that’s much more accurate. That’s not something I look at and I should definitely change that. Gives a much better idea of what to really expect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Saw the 18z EPS snowfall on the NE board and it looks like it jumped pretty far NW. looks like the 18z GFS to my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 End of GFS brings down the entire polar vortex into the northeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: End of GFS brings down the entire polar vortex into the northeast Well at least my mud will freeze 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 For what it’s worth. Looks pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 That says 18Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 My bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 What a surprise...Syracuse skyrockets 7 degrees above what the forecasted high was for today. As soon as the southerly wind kicks in, UP the temp goes... Day in and day out, the temp overachieves here. Must be a combination of old climatology factored into the modeling and that Syracuse is a downsloping mecca plus Urban Heat Island. Yet another day of this place being in the top as the warmest place in New York State. Edit...the temp just went UP another degree at 11 pm...right after I typed that...just to spite me... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I think GFS might be folding. We knew that was kinda likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS is just a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I think GFS might be folding. We knew that was kinda likely. Lol BGM went from 32” to 3” on Kuchie. Congrats PHL. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I think GFS might be folding. We knew that was kinda likely. So just one run of somewhat interest at 18Z and now back to whatever it's doing? 00Z NAM looked like it was trying to come north, but it was also looking faster than its previous run...which probably wouldn't allow for much of a north track with such a progressive nature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS looked like it might chasing the offshore convection both down in the Gulf at H84 and again at H96 off the NC/VA coast. The 18z run showed the SLP jumping around a bit too. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Canadian gives some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Our weenie friend ICON has decided to take the night off apparently too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It’s suppressed, progressive wave. I was hoping to at least see something interesting, even if it was downstate! The big cities gotta watch this doesn’t just jet. A lot of it relies on last minute throwback of moisture. Hahaha. Oh well. Now maybe I can focus on my other stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s suppressed, progressive wave. I was hoping to at least see something interesting, even if it was downstate! The big cities gotta watch this doesn’t just jet. A lot of it relies on last minute throwback of moisture. Hahaha. Oh well. Now maybe I can focus on my other stuff. I'm scared in NYC for a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 ICON missing frames but appears to be a big hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 32 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: ICON missing frames but appears to be a big hit here. It looks amazing. By far the best looking run for much of Upstate NY. Wish it would come true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Icon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Lol. Same time post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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