BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: I'll be staying pretty close to your house Dec 18-20th. I would actually highly prefer this path. This would bring 20+ to lower dack range. I'm also off Thurs and we might drive up early to go ski whiteface. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'll be staying pretty close to your house Dec 18-20th. I would actually highly prefer this path. This would bring 20+ to lower dack range. I'm also off Thurs and we might drive up early to go ski whiteface. Nice, even if it whiffs they'll be making tons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Nice, even if it whiffs they'll be making tons Yeah they already have 14" on the summit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS considerably more amped with the first wave, this could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Nice start to 0z runs... nice jog NW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Alex, I’ll take weather tragedies for $1,000. Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York, Boston. What are cities that will have more snow than Buffalo by the 2020 winter solstice? Correct! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Canadian is tucked and a bomb... not enough but also a step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Buffalo Bumble said: Alex, I’ll take weather tragedies for $1,000. Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York, Boston. What are cities that will have more snow than Buffalo by the 2020 winter solstice? Correct! What is Oklahoma City 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Regardless it's going to get seriously cold late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Big city weenies getting excited. That’s usually good for some laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Big city weenies getting excited. That’s usually good for some laughs. As one formerly, we just wait for the NW trend...it's coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: As the former, we just wait for the NW trend...it's coming. Not so sure about it this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Not so sure about it this time 4 for 4 already on the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Stick a fork in this one, lol, but at least it gets COLD so the lakes can get some work in! The one time we need a NW trend we won't get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Stick a fork in this one, lol, but at least it gets COLD so the lakes can get some work in! The one time we need a NW trend we won't get it! 5 days to go is an eternity for a system like this. GFS at 6z was also NW by a good bit. For our area we just need a couple of things to happen. The High position is off allowing for the primary to drive further North. The system isn’t as wrapped up allowing for a larger moisture field. The Euro at 12z had about .4 LE of snow for Binghamton - 0z had 1” plus and there are DAYS to sort this out Having done this for 30+ years I know well enough to not give up! Are the odds against us now? Sure. But modeled snow is just that... FWIW - I also lived the first 39 years of my life in NJ/PA near 95, so I know heartbreak with storms like this as well as most! EDIT while a terrible model the 6z ICON shows what’s still possible and how it could happen. Run a low inside NJ that’s less consolidated than the Euro and we see many inches of powder. (2nd image) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 32 minutes ago, 96blizz said: 5 days to go is an eternity for a system like this. GFS at 6z was also NW by a good bit. For our area we just need a couple of things to happen. The High position is off allowing for the primary to drive further North. The system isn’t as wrapped up allowing for a larger moisture field. The Euro at 12z had about .4 LE of snow for Binghamton - 0z had 1” plus and there are DAYS to sort this out Having done this for 30+ years I know well enough to not give up! Are the odds against us now? Sure. But modeled snow is just that... FWIW - I also lived the first 39 years of my life in NJ/PA near 95, so I know heartbreak with storms like this as well as most! EDIT while a terrible model the 6z ICON shows what’s still possible and how it could happen. Run a low inside NJ that’s less consolidated than the Euro and we see many inches of powder. (2nd image) Yessir 6z came even further NW and gives WNY a better shot...the trend is our friend? GFS also throws in an ENE wind component that would add enhancement off Ontario...today’s runs will be very important IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yessir 6z came even further NW and gives WNY a better shot...the trend is our friend? GFS also throws in an ENE wind component that would add enhancement off Ontario...today’s runs will be very important IMO The weenies in the big cities never learn. I see so many “lock it in” comments it’s hilarious. I’m a huge believer in climatology as well - and 2’ of snow in NYC in December with a tucked low is supremely anomalous. sure it can happen and modeling favors it now - but I wouldn’t lock anything in yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, 96blizz said: The weenies in the big cities never learn. I see so many “lock it in” comments it’s hilarious. I’m a huge believer in climatology as well - and 2’ of snow in NYC in December with a tucked low is supremely anomalous. sure it can happen and modeling favors it now - but I wouldn’t lock anything in yet. The NYC crowd aren't necessarily finding the negatives with this setup, but strangely enough there might be something here for them assuming mixing doesn't actually come into play. Nonetheless I like where a good deal of us here are sitting...ratios over 10:1 (perhaps approaching >15:1?) with every model spitting out >8" for most inland areas (save for GFS)....so basically very few negatives really at hand for us unless you're more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 A post from the NE forum pastes a NWS text that states the sampling of the pacific SW can’t really begin to be sampled until Sunday and with that believes the NW trend will continue...getting a bit more intrigued 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: A post from the NE forum pastes a NWS text that states the sampling of the pacific SW can’t really begin to be sampled until Sunday and with that believes the NW trend will continue...getting a bit more intrigued Exactly. The vort is over the ocean right now! I posted my humorous article about this last winter. May be time to dig it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Hopeful to get an inch or so of scattered lake effect snow showers earlier in the week just to give the wintry appeal just in case that end of the week system finds a way to avoid us. Asking too much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I wish I could move to Worth or the UP and teleport to work. Asking too much? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hopeful to get an inch or so of scattered lake effect snow showers earlier in the week just to give the wintry appeal just in case that end of the week system finds a way to avoid us. Asking too much? With the first system trending closer I think the favored areas see 1-3” or so. The problem seems to be if the Wed/Thurs storm doesn’t deliver up here a White Xmas could be in serious jeopardy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: With the first system trending closer I think the favored areas see 1-3” or so. The problem seems to be if the Wed/Thurs storm doesn’t deliver up here a White Xmas could be in serious jeopardy! For sure. Whatever snow we do get may not even make it to Christmas. I have been soooo busy at work I haven't even had time to look at Christmas week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: For sure. Whatever snow we do get may not even make it to Christmas. I have been soooo busy at work I haven't even had time to look at Christmas week. Don’t. lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Don’t. lol. LOL! Well...I'll be in Tennessee for the week, so it won't be so bad knowing I am not missing anything up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Don’t. lol. I looked... A couple of cutters? You don't say... One for Christmas? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I looked... A couple of cutters? You don't say... One for Christmas? lol “I’m Dreaming of a Wet Christmas...” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The amount of stress at work and the month and a half of dreary, brown landscape is taking a serious toll on my emotional (and physical) health. Many may not get it, but SNOW really is a rejuvenating, uplifting source for my everyday mood. The brightness factor. The cold, crisp air wakes one up. I miss winter...and definitely need some right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 It’s already been stated but the thing that could save areas along the I90 are the ENE-NW winds with this. We should end up with considerable enhancement. These ones with a large NW coverage usually do good in Rochester. Doesn’t look like we’ll be into the big stuff (it’s early!) but I’m thinking 6” is sure possible. The thing that could hurt us is the HP. It’s not so much the NW extent that’ll limit us but the Northern latitude gain. We are kind of in it with Boston. We want the same trends they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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