cny rider Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 hours ago, PerintonMan said: What's the ideal setup/track for a big synoptic event between Syracuse and Buffalo? In New England we talk about the 40/70 benchmark. What's the rule of thumb here? Seems like a track from Pittsburgh to Albany would pay off for everyone pretty well. I'm in Otsego County, almost dead center of NY state. We want to see a low right off the New Jersey coast and passing over the center of Long Island for maximum snowfall here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, cny rider said: I'm in Otsego County, almost dead center of NY state. We want to see a low right off the New Jersey coast and passing over the center of Long Island for maximum snowfall here. Montgomery county agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Had to go back to the 90s to see what real synoptic events look like lol They do exist.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 And for us ROC peeps, there is no better setup. Look at that little jackpot over us 58 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Perfect example lol hard for me to root for NE winds that's for sure.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Liking what I see so far but still five days out so plenty of time for change. It'll be about damn time we get our first big boy snow of the year if things continue to trend in the correct direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Buffalo gets no snow until Christmas in nearly every model with a decent pattern. I'm going to drop snowfall to around 55-60" total for year. Winter hasn't even started LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, brentrich said: Winter hasn't even started LOL Meteorological winter has and this isn't NYC lol Tired of hearing that.. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Liking what I see so far but still five days out so plenty of time for change. It'll be about damn time we get our first big boy snow of the year if things continue to trend in the correct direction. I should also say I do feel a bit nervous of this evolving into a 95 special. Every time I see snowy on the EPS to the coast it always swings that way by 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Syracuse already has a deficit of over a foot..If next week's system misses us then add on another 10 days to that unless something else pops up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... This period will start off with a deepening cold airmass with 850 hPa temperatures dropping down to around -10 to -14C by Tuesday morning. This colder airmass will aid in the generation of weak lake effect snow, primarily east and southeast of the Lakes Sunday night through Monday night, and possibly into Tuesday. Moisture over the Lakes will be limited as deeper synoptic moisture remains near a passing shortwave traveling across the Southeastern States. Another shortwave will arrive Wednesday of next week with this shortwave taking a track much closer to our region. This will bring an increasing chance for widespread, but light snow showers Wednesday and into Wednesday night. By Thursday the main upper level shortwave will be pushing eastward with a west to east drying trend. Temperatures will be near normal this period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 GFS is a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 GFS is just depressing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Yeah it was.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I can tell you one thing, I'm going to get a lot of shit done around the yard this "winter". Still working outside pretty much every weekend with virtually no end in sight. That's the one silver lining I can find. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Well I'm pretty much the JP over the next 10 days with a whole inch, congrats me.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 As far as I'm concerned, bring the cold and the Lakes will provide! If this next airmass pans out like the EURO has, then we're looking good. The GFS is just a horrible model outside of a few days. I'm surprised it didn't lose it altogether, lol, as its quite common for it to do just that as we all know already!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I'm rooting for the Canadian and it's more robust Lake effect lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: As far as I'm concerned, bring the cold and the Lakes will provide! If this next airmass pans out like the EURO has, then we're looking good. The GFS is just a horrible model outside of a few days. I'm surprised it didn't lose it altogether, lol, as its quite common for it to do just that as we all know already! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk You really can't trust any models these days lol European showed feet of snow within 72-96 hrs with the last New england special.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Some of them are nice. IDK. It’s an active but anemic pattern. We’ll need everything to come together just so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 I don't think I've personally ever seen a full GFS run in December with no snow 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I don't think I've personally ever seen a full GFS run in December with no snow The 18z went all jack Nicholson on us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Ok... Who knows clouds? Would this be a “Fallstreak Hole”? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 They would be a UFO cloud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 35 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Ok... Who knows clouds? Would this be a “Fallstreak Hole”? Maybe this? OR as Vortmax alluded to them as "ufo clouds" https://earthsky.org/earth/best-photos-beautiful-lenticular-clouds-around-the-world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Looks like a classic hole lunch cloud. Was it near the airport? On an approach line? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Pathetic when our 2 inches of snow from yesterday mostly melted OVERNIGHT last night. Couldn't even survive 24 hours. Then, today it was the Seattle overcast with drizzle and 40 degrees. Just awful. Blood test from the doctor showed my Vitamin D levels down to 14 ng/mL...guess I've "acclimated" to the Central NY climate......... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 9 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Yeah, its interesting. The best time to view it would have been overnight last night (this morning). The media and most people misunderstood the data from NASA and spaceweather.com. The chance has already come and gone. It's a shame that most people will be disappointed tonight without the proper info. THE STORM HAS FIZZLED: As predicted, a CME (pictured below) hit Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of Dec. 10th (1:30 UT), but the impact did not cause a geomagnetic storm. Mid-latitude auroras are not likely tonight. Boo! I've never used this website, is it accurate? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 One positive, I guess, is that models last weekend weren't really showing anything for this past week, and we managed to get a semi-event in the middle of the week. This seems like a pattern where little disturbances will be seen a couple days before they slip through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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