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Upstate/Eastern New York


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20 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

That’s definitley true almost all early season lake effect events land up further north than forecasted. Maybe Hamburg can grab a surprise 2-4” tomorrow morning? 

Yeah, going to be close. I don't really trust the HRRR. It's hitting at perfect time overnight and rates should be pretty strong. 

Expect snow to
develop after midnight even as far west as western NY due to
isentropic upglide sweeping across region. WSW winds in blyr with
temps just cool enough for lake enhancement (around -6C) will lead
to precip maximums to northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Forecast soundings point to mainly snow in these areas, even across
Buffalo Metro and at Watertown, except maybe right along the
immediate lakeshores. Not out of question that both of these lower
elevation areas could see a quick inch, maybe two, of snow that
could disrupt the early AM commute on Wednesday. A more middle
ground for snow right now though is up to a sloppy inch which is
what this forecast will carry.
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Despite the cold the last few days Buffalo is still + .8 on the season. With how the rest of this week goes, we will likely be +3-5 again. Not sure how second half of December plays out, but feel pretty confident in above average temps for Dec. I think April and May will be the only 2 months of the year with below normal temps. 

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