Geez150 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: My issue is that they don’t learn. Well not really learn, but correct. A huge government model should review its forecasts and see they are continually over forecasting snow and cold and adjust. They simply don’t. That's exactly my point. These computers are only as good as the humans feeding inputs or parameters to it. And if it's still set up on out of date parameters it's going to want to show cold that it thinks should be coming. At this point I feel like I don't trust any model for winter weather, unless it's showing warm then I will believe it lol. Sorry for my general lack of knowledge on how this stuff works. In my mind I'm trying to compare it to PLCs, VFDs and stuff like that, that we use to control motors, valves, etc...and how parameters must be set up for that stuff to work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is the kind of track we need to make us all happy lol I love it, but notice that 50 mile jog south would leave the Niagara frontier with almost no snow? That’s what you call walking the line 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is the kind of track we need to make us all happy lol Fantasy land and NOT a happy result. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Snow in SE VA but the idea of a flake here is a dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Snow in SE VA but the idea of a flake here is a dream. Last time I saw flakes down here in NYC was in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Last time I saw flakes down here in NYC was in May. October no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: October no? Not really Graupel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Decent little clipper on the gfs, drops a few/several inches.. Lower elevations near the lake can't buy a flake lol I hope that changes by the time I get to pulaski.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 Canadian looks pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Gfs doesn't have much of LES event behind the cutter, transient in nature, most see some snow showers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 GFS moves the cutter by several hundred miles south. A good step 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Canada was active between synoptic and LES.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Hopefully this is a step down into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Canada was active between synoptic and LES.. All that rain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 After that cutter GEFS look right around normal for temps. Mid 30s across the area for highs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Which really doesn’t do much. It’s just a simple 2 or 3 degree bump to rain and nothing else. I’m not sure what’s worse the consistent model flipping or the feeling of knowing deep down we’re all just hoping for things we know aren’t going in our favor right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 We have 8-10 people going up to Adirondacks next weekend to hike 17 miles of trails. Hoping for something good, depth at high peaks looks decent, not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Which really doesn’t do much. It’s just a simple 2 or 3 degree bump to rain and nothing else. I’m not sure what’s worse the consistent model flipping or the feeling of knowing deep down we’re all just hoping for things we know aren’t going in our favor right now. It's a much better look then Mid/late December last year, thats for sure, and then January was a super torch. For late Dec-Feb average temps give you snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Hi rez models starting to get into range..Temps in the 20s verbatim.. Embedded stronger band on a WSW-SW flow..See how this trends over the next 24 hours.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Hi rez models starting to get into range..Temps in the 20s verbatim.. Embedded stronger band on a WSW-SW flow..See how this trends over the next 24 hours.. Looks good for you wolf tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 3k nam looks like a scattered mess lol Brings some squalls down to the coast, most of us may have a chance at at least flakes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 3k nam is a scattered mess lol Brings some squalls down to the coast, most of us may have a chance at at least flakes lol whats elevation there at your spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1200 Imby.. Just to the south (few miles) gets up to about 1500-1600 feet asl.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: 1200 Imby.. Just to the south (few miles) gets up to about 1500-1600 feet asl.. Wow, thats a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 EURO too progressive, no real lake effect behind cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We have 8-10 people going up to Adirondacks next weekend to hike 17 miles of trails. Hoping for something good, depth at high peaks looks decent, not great. If Mt Mansfield is any indication, we are starting to sneak into somewhat unusual territory for the lack of snow in the high peaks. It seems like December can occasionally have bare ground but it becomes increasingly unlikely heading into January. In fact, there has never been a single year since 1954 where Mt Mansfield didnt have continual snow cover from January 1st through April 15th. No doubt this year is off to a slow start... https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Yeah it's not bad haha.. The real snow country is just to my south, this area seems to do the best when we have more of a SW component to the wind field.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: If Mt Mansfield is any indication, we are starting to sneak into somewhat unusual territory for the lack of snow in the high peaks. It seems like December can occasionally have bare ground but it becomes increasingly unlikely heading into January. In fact, there has never been a single year since 1954 where Mt Mansfield didnt have continual snow cover from January 1st through April 15th. No doubt this year is off to a slow start... https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ I saw some pictures at 4k feet of what looked like 10-15" of snow. That likely builds up to around 2-3' or so by next weekend. Almost all precip. above 4k is usually snow if temps average around normal down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You moved recently? "Pit stop" haha Yeah I've been up in lewis for the last few months, be back down in the pulaski area by months end.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 45 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We have 8-10 people going up to Adirondacks next weekend to hike 17 miles of trails. Hoping for something good, depth at high peaks looks decent, not great. Was in the low areas of the ADK on Sat. Just enough on the ground in the O.F. area to make it look like winter.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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