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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

My issue is that they don’t learn. Well not really learn, but correct. A huge government model should review its forecasts and see they are continually over forecasting snow and cold and adjust. They simply don’t. 

That's exactly my point. These computers are only as good as the humans feeding inputs or parameters to it. And if it's still set up on out of date parameters it's going to want to show cold that it thinks should be coming. At this point I feel like I don't trust any model for winter weather, unless it's showing warm then I will believe it lol. Sorry for my general lack of knowledge on how this stuff works. In my mind I'm trying to compare it to PLCs, VFDs and stuff like that, that we use to control motors, valves, etc...and how parameters must be set up for that stuff to work.

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1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Which really doesn’t do much. It’s just a simple 2 or 3 degree bump to rain and nothing else. I’m not sure what’s worse the consistent model flipping or the feeling of knowing deep down we’re all just hoping for things we know aren’t going in our favor right now.

It's a much better look then Mid/late December last year, thats for sure, and then January was a super torch. 

For late Dec-Feb average temps give you snow. 

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39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We have 8-10 people going up to Adirondacks next weekend to hike 17 miles of trails. Hoping for something good, depth at high peaks looks decent, not great. 

If Mt Mansfield is any indication, we are starting to sneak into somewhat unusual territory for the lack of snow in the high peaks.  It seems like December can occasionally have bare ground but it becomes increasingly unlikely heading into January.  In fact, there has never been a single year since 1954 where Mt Mansfield didnt have continual snow cover from January 1st through April 15th.  No doubt this year is off to a slow start...

https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/

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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

If Mt Mansfield is any indication, we are starting to sneak into somewhat unusual territory for the lack of snow in the high peaks.  It seems like December can occasionally have bare ground but it becomes increasingly unlikely heading into January.  In fact, there has never been a single year since 1954 where Mt Mansfield didnt have continual snow cover from January 1st through April 15th.  No doubt this year is off to a slow start...

https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/

I saw some pictures at 4k feet of what looked like 10-15" of snow. That likely builds up to around 2-3' or so by next weekend. Almost all precip. above 4k is usually snow if temps average around normal down here. 

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45 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We have 8-10 people going up to Adirondacks next weekend to hike 17 miles of trails. Hoping for something good, depth at high peaks looks decent, not great. 

Was in the low areas of the ADK on Sat. Just enough on the ground in the O.F. area to make it look like winter....

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