Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

I do like that Canada is finally getting some cold. Maybe a reload for late Dec/into January?

[BuffaloWeather]

A decent LES band behind that cutter next Monday on GFS

[Mothman]

Hi I’m from the Catskills. Happy to be here! Models really backed off ...

[sferic]

16 minutes ago, Mothman said:

Hi I’m from the Catskills. Happy to be here! Models really backed off ...

Love the Roscoe Diner; I am in Liberty

[MJO812]

52 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just a horrible EPS run last night. Pacific completely takes over with zonal flow. Definitely an above average month incoming.

Not alot of cold air in Canada 

Need a major lakes cutter to buckle the pattern

 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not alot of cold air in Canada 

Need a major lakes cutter to buckle the pattern

 

Lots of cold air in Canada?

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lots of cold air in Canada?

 

Epo  sucks

[TugHillMatt]

Every year, I keep thinking the winter patterns couldn't get worse...then the next year comes...  

[BuffaloWeather]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

FWIW. Despite the anguishing over longer range model runs, I think we’ll have our chances. 

 

Jeez, that looks terrible lol. 4-6 weeks of PAC flow in a Nina?

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Far from ideal but if the pattern remains active maybe we can time something with a little Atlantic help.  

Alaska has been the place to be the last few years. Nonstop cold and snow there. I think it has to do with that warm pool of pac waters up there the last few years. Its the only anomaly that would explain this pattern

[BuffaloWeather]

If it's not going to snow, lets get some 50s and sun around here.

[Syrmax]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If it's not going to snow, lets get some 50s and sun around here.

Agreed. The weather the past couple of months reminds me of what is typical in most of Germany and the Low Countries.  A lot of 40’s for high temps, generally dreary with rain and occasional bits of snowfall with cold snaps.  Same with England. 

[wolfie09]

Shortwave sliding through on Wednesday ahead of stronger warm air
advection late this week will bring rain and snow to region. Temps
over higher terrain of eastern Lake Ontario region including Tug
Hill and western Dacks should stay cold enough for lake enhanced
snow. Some accumulation could occur Wednesday into Wednesday night.
ECMWF quite bullish with qpf/snow and seems on higher end of
guidance for both. H85 temps of -4c to -6c marginal for all snow and
suggest we`ll be looking at situation that is highly dependent
on elevation. Will keep this out of HWO for now given most
guidance is not as bullish with qpf/snow as ECMWF and since
ECMWF showed sharp increase over its previous runs.

Beyond this into late this week, upper ridging and warming will
provide a warm up with temps rising well above normal Thu into Sat.
Deepening long wave trough over central CONUS will then result in
cyclogenesis by next weekend with deepening low potentially less
than 990mb lifting across the western Great Lakes. At least at this
point, primary models are in good agreement with the idea, though
NBM temp output shows decent spread Friday and Saturday. Seems we`ll
be on the warm side of the system Friday/Saturday (highs potentially
as warm as the 50s one or both of these days) with rain first part
of the weekend and possibly some gusty winds and increasing lake
effect snow chances arriving by late next weekend as colder air
arrives from the west. Plenty of time to dive into those details as
we work through the upcoming week

[PerintonMan]

Having lived here for 2 years, this is now my 3rd winter in the area.

My impression so far is that it's a lot of cold and overcast, and a lot of C-2" types of events that make it look pretty for a few hours/days, doesn't actually accumulate significantly, yet somehow still adds up to 80" per year.

Is that about right?

If so, I kind of prefer the SNE pattern (grew up in CT, grad school in Boston) of less snow overall, less frequent snow, but occasional monsters.

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Epo  sucks

I agree. Canada isn't going into an Ice box with a +EPO. If there was at least an Aleutian ridge it could create some cross polar flow but nope. Far from your typical Nina pattern. 

[wolfie09]

Looks like several inches fell just my south, 1/2"-1" here..

 

[TugHillMatt]

14 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

Having lived here for 2 years, this is now my 3rd winter in the area.

My impression so far is that it's a lot of cold and overcast, and a lot of C-2" types of events that make it look pretty for a few hours/days, doesn't actually accumulate significantly, yet somehow still adds up to 80" per year.

Is that about right?

If so, I kind of prefer the SNE pattern (grew up in CT, grad school in Boston) of less snow overall, less frequent snow, but occasional monsters.

Yup, that sounds like a pretty typical Great Lakes climate. The times when it's awesome living in the Great Lakes is when you do get a good storm or one of those nice lake effect bands...and then you get those constant refreshers every day or couple days. Then the snowpack can build up and it's awesome. But....we need some BLOCKING so that we can get some cold air locked in to provide one of those great patterns. Looking like another winter where that is not going to happen though because most of the indices...SUCK. Usually, the lakes can help us salvage even the worst of patterns though. Syracuse managed to get 50 inches of snow even during the horrid winter of 11-12. That's like 40% of the normal for here (awful) but still more than NYC get in one of their "good" winters.

[Snowstorms]

47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It has certainly been a rough couple of years. Not sure about climo in your area, but for SNE/Mid-Atlantic I think we have to cash in during December and early January because the Nina is likely to torch us through February. 

Not all Nina's are torches by Feb/Mar. Some years include 1995-96, 1988-89, 1983-84, 1971-72 and 1964-65. Areas in the Mid-Atlantic need blocking on the Atlantic side more than the Pacific. That's the only caveat compared to us further north where we can still get snow despite a +NAO/AO. I'm not sure if parts of the Mid-Atlantic had any luck in those winters I listed above, but I wouldn't write off Feb/Mar just yet because it is possible under the right circumstances. There is a possibility we could see a SSW come Jan. 

[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Looks like several inches fell just my south, 1/2"-1" here..

 

Did you move to Pulaski yet?

[BuffaloWeather]

26 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

Having lived here for 2 years, this is now my 3rd winter in the area.

My impression so far is that it's a lot of cold and overcast, and a lot of C-2" types of events that make it look pretty for a few hours/days, doesn't actually accumulate significantly, yet somehow still adds up to 80" per year.

Is that about right?

If so, I kind of prefer the SNE pattern (grew up in CT, grad school in Boston) of less snow overall, less frequent snow, but occasional monsters.

It's definitely tough where you live. You need synoptic with Lake enhanced on the back side. That is where Rochester does its best. The biggest of dogs are where most of us live though. Only in LES can you get a 100" storm.

[wolfie09]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Did you move to Pulaski yet?

Nope not yet lol Estimated closing date is December 23rd, just let my landlord know I'll be out by the first...So somewhere around then lol

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro is pretty serviceable.

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro is actually below normal after that cutter.

[Thinksnow18]

I’m thinking 50% Climo snowfall looks very likely right now...unless something drastic changes 

[rochesterdave]

54 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

Having lived here for 2 years, this is now my 3rd winter in the area.

My impression so far is that it's a lot of cold and overcast, and a lot of C-2" types of events that make it look pretty for a few hours/days, doesn't actually accumulate significantly, yet somehow still adds up to 80" per year.

Is that about right?

If so, I kind of prefer the SNE pattern (grew up in CT, grad school in Boston) of less snow overall, less frequent snow, but occasional monsters.

Don’t judge based on the last two years. No matter what the Rochester airport says, the last 2 years have been terrible. We usually get some big snow storms in Rochester with long stretches of snow cover. We are in a bad stretch or seeing the results of GW

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, PerintonMan said:

Having lived here for 2 years, this is now my 3rd winter in the area.

My impression so far is that it's a lot of cold and overcast, and a lot of C-2" types of events that make it look pretty for a few hours/days, doesn't actually accumulate significantly, yet somehow still adds up to 80" per year.

Is that about right?

If so, I kind of prefer the SNE pattern (grew up in CT, grad school in Boston) of less snow overall, less frequent snow, but occasional monsters.

You should move to Caribou if you love snow cover and cold.

[BuffaloWeather]

Could always head to the mountains of Italy

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Could always head to the mountains of Italy

Just go to Marquette =)

[rclab]

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Don’t judge based on the last two years. No matter what the Rochester airport says, the last 2 years have been terrible. We usually get some big snow storms in Rochester with long stretches of snow cover. We are in a bad stretch or seeing the results of GW

Rochester has something missing in my NYC area and even, more often now, in Boston. It has a constant winter feel. The overcast sky. The continued stray flakes. The anticipation of a gift from the lakes or a fine result from a storm that would water our all ready bleak cold season coastal yards. No, P M, when it comes to winter, Rochester is indeed blessed, As always....

[Geez150]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

You should move to Caribou if you love snow cover and cold.

I'd love to. Was up that way (Fort Kent) for the first time last January on our yearly snowmobile trip. It was awesome. Every day can cold with no worries of snow disappearing right in front of your eyes. Even besides the great riding we had. Just driving around town and seeing the snow banks at the end of driveways, that you could tell had been there for some time brought back childhood memories from the 90s. I know you always remember the good in things, but growing up in the 90s it seemed like we always had snow banks and snow on the ground to play with. I mean sure there may have been one warm winter here and there but if you had one you could count on next winter to right the ship. I am so disappointed thinking about this winter that may not happen along with all the future winters that may never happen....time to try out this new maple whisky I picked up today...thanks a lot guys, lol.