swva Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Hey guys, excited about another winter. The next weekend storm has bigger implications in my opinion. Maybe some synoptic.. but sets up possible longer duration LES. Of course it’s a long ways off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like the trend at 12z was a little later/less phasing and an Eastward track..Not sure it really helps us much.. I mean not to be that guy but it MIGHT help WNY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2020 Author Share Posted November 27, 2020 First time I've seen some true arctic air in the long range. - EPO mid month? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I mean not to be that guy but it MIGHT help WNY... Wish this thing would have cut over MI/OH and set us up with a nice SW flow for a day or two. This things looking like a bust. Maybe 1-3” of Synoptic snow in WNY if this thing trends right. Precip shield has really backed off in recent runs with less phasing/further east trend. Yeah we may get in on the Synoptics of the storm but there’s not gonna be much to get in on. On to the next one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2020 Author Share Posted November 27, 2020 20 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Wish this thing would have cut over MI/OH and set us up with a nice SW flow for a day or two. This things looking like a bust. Maybe 1-3” of Synoptic snow in WNY if this thing trends right. Precip shield has really backed off in recent runs with less phasing/further east trend. Yeah we may get in on the Synoptics of the storm but there’s not gonna be much to get in on. On to the next one. Agreed 1-3" max for anyone lower than 1k feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Euro was a little west of 0z, looked ok for the"usual suspects" , not much outside of that verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 NE OH looks to be the big winner with the one, then the next one will be for ENY and points N&E from there while we gets scraps from both, lol, typical but I wouldn't expect anything more! Things gotta change eventually but then again, maybe they don't. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: NE OH looks to be the big winner with the one, then the next one will be for ENY and points N&E from there while we gets scraps from both, lol, typical but I wouldn't expect anything more! Things gotta change eventually but then again, maybe they don't. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I've been reading through the yearly lake effect events page from the BUF NWS to remind myself that our area CAN and does get some good lake effect events...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Agreed 1-3" max for anyone lower than 1k feet. I guess this is where the northern Niagara and Hamilton region will rejoice a bit. Id rather 1-3" instead of a monster cutter that gives me nothing but cool windy days haha. The next weekend storm means nothing for us in the Niagara region so our best chance at snow is with Monday-Tuesday system. Assuming there's no big SW LES The Buffalo-Hamilton corridor could end up being missed by two snowstorms within two weeks with people on either side of this 100ish mile zone getting some decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Looks about right lol idk what track works for this area anymore lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Looks about right lol idk what track works for this area anymore lol How does a LP over eastern PA give WNY rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Lol..this is awful. Part of the "new" climate? Just minimal cold air to work with so many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2020 Author Share Posted November 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks about right lol idk what track works for this area anymore lol The track is fine, just a warm airmass. No source of cold air at this moment. That changes mid month. Starting to like the look the 2nd half of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2020 Author Share Posted November 27, 2020 Yesterday BUF was +14 on the day. Even when you think we're around normal were blowing past climo lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 That 12z gfs shows a significant and continued weakening trend of the low pressure. Now only getting down to about 993. It’s barely pulling down enough cold air and is struggling to generate its own cold air. Even snow on the western side seems to struggle to develop. The week after still looking really nice though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Hwo A deep storm system will move from West Virginia Monday morning across Pennsylvania to western New York by Tuesday morning. This will result in a soaking rain for our region during the day Monday with a general half to three quarters of an inch expected. The rain may mix with some wet snow over the Southern Tier late Monday night with the changeover becoming more widespread on Tuesday. Some accumulating lake snows will then be likely Tuesday night, mainly south of Buffalo and Watertown. AFD The closed low aloft and its associated surface low will become vertically stacked and slowly weaken while rotating somewhere over southern Ontario and southeastern Quebec Tuesday through Wednesday. That said, the region will be in a more showery regime with some dry periods at times especially for locations outside any influences from the lakes. Additionally, cold air will filter in across the region from the west, where enough cold air will be in place to produce a lake response downwind of the lakes. Temperatures across the lower terrain may warm up enough to switch precipitation to rain, whereas temperatures across the higher terrain will remain cold enough to keep all precipitation in the form of snow. Therefore for those locations across the higher terrain, accumulating snowfall is likely, though it is too far out to pinpoint down any exact snow accumulations this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Toronto? Again! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Not at a bad look for the buffalo boys.. Heaviest just to the south.. Granted it's a marginal airmass.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Looks about right lol idk what track works for this area anymore lol Thats a great track for our area but like many have said, its a marginal air mass at best but if this same track happened in mid Jan we'd be talking about feet of snow for us but not this timeSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 Any snow in Buffalo will be Tuesday night into Weds afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 GEFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 GFS has a nice little clipper pattern developing. It's been far too long since we've had one of those. It's by far my favorite pattern. They are more common in Ninas with an active northern jet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS has a nice little clipper pattern developing. It's been far too long since we've had one of those. It's by far my favorite pattern. They are more common in Ninas with an active northern jet. For sure, mine as well! Especially when I lived in West Michigan...SW flow ahead of the clipper was our BEST snowfall there. I don't have much experience with clipper patterns in Upstate New York, since there haven't been any since I arrived. I imagine Central NY does well on the backside of the clippers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: GEFS More of these than not look good for us in WNY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Nam with the weenie run for wny lol Not sure what temps are like verbatim.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam with the weenie run for wny lol Not sure what temps are like verbatim.. That’s gonna be a stretch.... doesn’t look right... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: That’s gonna be a stretch.... doesn’t look right... Temps will cool overnight into Tuesday as wrap around moisture increases and enhancement kicks in...I’m guessing with nighttime accumulation 2-4” looks right at lower elevations and 5-8” in the hills. LES looks to be later in the period with a series of clippers that would actually bring colder air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 The 850’s actually look interesting. All the way to Syracuse. It’s the NAM tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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