cleetussnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Anyone staying up for the euro? Trying to decide if I want to take a lunesta now or wait up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Gfs and NAM have around 6" here from the trough swinging through lol The icon and european have little northern stream snow but a good amount from the southern vort.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Icon and Euro are over a foot with possible blizzard conditions, GFS and NAM have sun and clouds on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: If that comes anywhere close to being right I might have to chase this one into the Catskills. I have off until Tuesday next week. Find a hotel in Oneonta and crash there until Sunday or Monday. Yeah, I'm staying put in Amsterdam because my water is shut for season in Deleware county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 No cold air anywhere. Need a really amped system to generate enough dynamics for cooling. Just don't see that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 I looked at my cam and didn't pick up the comet. Looks like it hit new Syracuse. My cams face north and south, so it wouldn't pick up east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 Here is video of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 hours ago, rochesterdave said: GFS west but nowhere near enough. As last long as the adk and or the hill gets it that's far enough west for me on this one. Next "storm" bring her on in to WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just not seeing anything that excites me at this time. I saw yesterday the EPS backed off in the idea of a cold East and warm west and it was the opposite instead. This is looking like we’re going to need to take advantage of every cold period we get because it’s not working in our favor ATM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Looks like we have a lot to look forward to 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Yeah. This winter just has that feel already. Lots of time but wow; disappointments racking up already. Some said we were due one more dud. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 As shortwave in the larger scale trough and associated sfc trough approach on Friday, large scale forcing will result in showers expanding especially over northern forecast area from Niagara Frontier running along Lake Ontario and extending to east of Lake Ontario as lake enhancement will increase. Followed non- diurnal temp idea on Friday (early highs near 40 with temps dropping into the mid and upper 30s during the afternoon) which matched forecast soundings well. Net result is rain/snow showers becoming more widespread with ptype highly dependant on blyr temps and elevation as temps aloft will be cold enough for mainly snow. Higher terrain of WNY and the Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario figure to keep mix of rain/snow or all snow most of Friday. Temps will be marginal for much snow accum over WNY though just a couple degrees of cooling could lead to some more accums than this forecast shows currently. Meanwhile, it should stay cold enough on Tug Hill with persistent upslope flow to result in at least a couple inches of slushy snow on Friday with best chances later in the day as sfc trough/stronger forcing draws closer. Farther inland across Southern Tier, conditions will remain dry until a few rain and snow showers develop later in the afternoon. Friday night the sfc trough continues dropping across the region but deep moisture and larger scale forcing cuts out, so trimmed the pops down by overnight. Best chances for scattered rain and snow showers will be over Southern Tier to eastern Lake Ontario region, including the Tug Hill where another couple inches of snow could still occur. Later Friday night through Sunday, main focus will turn to the Nor`easter of which impacts look to stay east of our forecast area this weekend. Latest ECMWF trended back west slightly, but is also quite a bit faster. If other models join that trend, then eastern Lake Ontario region could get clipped by western edge of snow shield with the system. Just something to keep in mind as we watch model trends next 24-36 hours. Othewise, NW flow to the west of the deepening low with deepening cold air aloft will result in plenty of clouds and some light lake effect snow showers especially southeast of Lake Ontario this weekend. High temps Saturday and Sunday top out in the mid 30s most areas, though it will be as cool as the 20s in the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. For lows, 20s will be a common number, though some teens could occur in typical cold spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Still close enough to keep an eye on but this ship is sailing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 33 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yeah. This winter just has that feel already. Lots of time but wow; disappointments racking up already. Some said we were due one more dud. Really? The last storm over-produced. We got almost 2" in the Roc area with <1" forecasted. Temps were 3-4 degrees cooler than forecasted as well. Keep your head up, son! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 On a side note, unusual weather over Antarctica: https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/12/02/strange-antarctic-weather-extends-to-the-edge-of-space/ Another 2020 special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Looks like another 2"-4" type deal Imby according to the NWS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 And if everything went right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 57 minutes ago, vortmax said: Really? The last storm over-produced. We got almost 2" in the Roc area with <1" forecasted. Temps were 3-4 degrees cooler than forecasted as well. Keep your head up, son! It’s December 3rd and we just had our first inch. Nothing looking great on the short, mid or long term. IDK.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Unfortunately the phase is just not ideal for any of us except those way to the East. Right now and the models don't show much promise either but we all know that could change and most likely will. The UKMET shows a nice Phase but the Northern Stream is just not behaving like we'd want it to as the trough is way to positively tilted so that allows it to escape OTS somewhat, but theres still leftover energy out West that has to come out eventually so we wait! There's alot going on right now with disturbance after disturbance coming through the area. One of these SW's has to work for us!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Pretty good consensus between most guidance so this ones a goner, lol! CMC NAM is also in the slot Finally the GFS The energy out West is really wreaking havoc on all guidance right now as I'd bet we see changes but times running out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 This really isn't a bad look from the EURO so IDK what to believe as the EURO is completely on its own right now with the energy much further West than all other guidance so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Well guys you only have to wait 11 days lol Low 960s north of Ontario lol Looks like the SE ridge makes a return after this next trough swings through, verbatim.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Gfs really likes that area just north of Ontario Good thing it's way out there, granted I'll take the LES behind these cutters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well guys you only have to wait 11 days lol Low 960s north of Ontario lol Looks like the SE ridge makes a return after this next trough swings through, verbatim.. I’m not buying in until I’m snow blowing my driveway 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Looks like a nice NE snowstorm, maybe even to Boston.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 We get a negative EPO for a few days and PNA goes negative. Really tough to get cold air around here now a days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 So while he’s a bit of a douche, I did notice Cohen mentioned that a perturbation of the PV in the near term will cause milder conditions in the East for the next couple weeks but long term (heading into January) a substantial event looks to be taking shape...this MIGHT be our only hope this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 The middle of December will feature some chances at snow, just no big arctic air intrusion until at least the end of December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The middle of December will feature some chances at snow, just no big arctic air intrusion until at least the end of December. Just in time for Christmas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just in case we make a miracle comeback lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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