tim123 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Actually the Canadian is a nice lake snow clipper train next 10 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why are you looking at the long range gfs ? Look at the ensembles . Good point. However, last year the ensembles promised great things...and we know how that went. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Ukmet has some LES with the trough and than a little NW on the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Nice SW flow ahead of the trough but it's to warm verbatim.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 A shortwave trough will sharpen across the Central Great Lakes Friday. A southwest wind will increase across the region as a cold front approaches from the west. Cold air advection and increasing moisture ahead of the front and shortwave trough axis will provide support for the development of showers. Temperatures will be rising into the 40s through the day so mainly rain showers are expected. Snow showers are possible on the Tug Hill where temperatures are slightly lower. While widespread showers are likely, lake enhancement is expected northeast of the Lakes into Friday night. The front will track across the region into Friday night and winds will become westerly with lake effect snow showers expected east of the Lakes. Minor accumulations are expected at this time. Overnight lows will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I was just about to ask about mid-month. Reading through some of the other subs, not many seem very enthusiastic about it anymore. Where do you see that? The NE forum is happy with the forecast pattern (at least the posters that know anything). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Nice looking lake effect rain band Friday afternoon... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nice SW flow ahead of the trough but it's to warm verbatim.. That’s at 18z or roughly 6pm...no diurnal effects and rates??? That might not be liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said: Where do you see that? The NE forum is happy with the forecast pattern (at least the posters that know anything). Hah! New York, Mid-Atlantic, and some talk on NE as well. Lots of discussion about just a brief call down mid-month...and then possibly back into a warm-ish pattern. When you look at where the forecasted indices are headed, it's not too exciting for winter. MJO isn't too much of an issue right now, thankfully. If we don't get the -EPO, I don't know how we're going to get much cold air to lock in for even a little while. It'll just be a continuation of the crapola we've been having during the past several winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Euro just isn't the same anymore.. From feet to almost nothing in a matter of a few runs..It's not even that far out lol The old euro would of nailed it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hah! New York, Mid-Atlantic, and some talk on NE as well. Lots of discussion about just a brief call down mid-month...and then possibly back into a warm-ish pattern. When you look at where the forecasted indices are headed, it's not too exciting for winter. MJO isn't too much of an issue right now, thankfully. If we don't get the -EPO, I don't know how we're going to get much cold air to lock in for even a little while. It'll just be a continuation of the crapola we've been having during the past several winters. Positive PNA Negative AO Negative NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Positive PNA Negative AO Negative NAO Currently....but forecasted to go in all their opposite directions by mid-month (at least on some models). In dealing with the cards in front of us, we've gotta get some play action in NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Positive PNA Negative AO Negative NAO I already posted them, still some spread mid month but we could be heading in the wrong direction.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 As far as waiting ANOTHER couple weeks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Why are all of you worrying? You average 100 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That’s at 18z or roughly 6pm...no diurnal effects and rates??? That might not be liquid Got your times a little mixed up there brother, it's the start of the afternoon (1pm) , gfs has a little SW snows so we'll see.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 The clear skies are giving us a chance to take stock on the snow cover. Looks pretty widespread and impressive but cool little localized areas stick out.. Looks like the Genesee valley never really got cold enough to accumulate much as they are already back to bare ground. Easily one of the worst places to live in WNY if you're a snow lover. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Why are all of you worrying? You average 100 inches. Because that's an average, and over the last decade we've had a few seasons with only half that amount. It's no longer a lock that we get crushed with snow anymore. I understand even at 50% it's still a good season for many people outside this region, but we have higher standards after living around here our whole lives. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: The clear skies are giving us a chance to take stock on the snow cover. Looks pretty widespread and impressive but cool little localized areas stick out.. Looks like the Genesee valley never really got cold enough to accumulate much as they are already back to bare ground. Easily one of the worst places to live in WNY if you're a snow lover. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 I am sooooo soo soo so glad I didn't take the job in Geneva. I love that town...but their climate...meh. The area, as I'm sure you know, from Dansville to Mt. Morris to Elmira and Corning is even worse and definitely not a winter lover's paradise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro just isn't the same anymore.. From feet to almost nothing in a matter of a few runs..It's not even that far out lol The old euro would of nailed it.. All the models suck now a days. Need to get within 2-3 days to have any chance of happening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I was going to move to horseheads many years back until I realized they avg like 40" a year haha Thought I had a better shot on the jersey coast lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro just isn't the same anymore.. From feet to almost nothing in a matter of a few runs..It's not even that far out lol The old euro would of nailed it.. the old Euro seemingly wouldn't swing like this. One of the last 4 euro runs might actually nail it, but we have no idea which one. Not really time to give up on this for at least eastern NY areas...pattern looks good mid month still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I was going to move to horseheads many years back until I realized they avg like 40" a year haha Thought I had a better shot on the jersey coast lol horseheads is a snow hole. That area misses everything to the left (lake effect) or right (coastal huggers). In the old days you could drive to Ithaca from there 30 minutes and get your snow fix but not so much these days. Last year they hit ~40 inches while everyone else was way under seasonal norms. Figures that was a year you want to be there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 29 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Because that's an average, and over the last decade we've had a few seasons with only half that amount. It's no longer a lock that we get crushed with snow anymore. I understand even at 50% it's still a good season for many people outside this region, but we have higher standards after living around here our whole lives. Want to switch locations ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Right around 3" here since last night, snow continues to hang around.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Slightly ot but did anyone on here feel what seemed to be a rather loud explosion that shook many houses just after noon? I guess it’s being attributed to a good sized meteor that broke up over the central ny through the Buffalo area, southern Ontario to about Detroit. There have been reports of a fireball of course here we’re socked in with low clouds so we couldn’t see anything. https://fireball.amsmeteors.org/members/imo_view/event/2020/7267 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, CNY_WX said: Slightly ot but did anyone on here feel what seemed to be a rather loud explosion that shook many houses just after noon? I guess it’s being attributed to a good sized meteor that broke up over the central ny through the Buffalo area, southern Ontario to about Detroit. There have been reports of a fireball of course here we’re socked in with low clouds so we couldn’t see anything. https://fireball.amsmeteors.org/members/imo_view/event/2020/7267 I was JUST going to post about this! I heard it. I've been home sick this week (not Covid) and I was like, "did somebody just jump on my balcony?!" There is talk of it maybe being a meteor hitting our atmosphere. Most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Slightly ot but did anyone on here feel what seemed to be a rather loud explosion that shook many houses just after noon? I guess it’s being attributed to a good sized meteor that broke up over the central ny through the Buffalo area, southern Ontario to about Detroit. There have been reports of a fireball of course here we’re socked in with low clouds so we couldn’t see anything. https://fireball.amsmeteors.org/members/imo_view/event/2020/7267 On the next episode of what's next in the year 2020. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I was JUST going to post about this! I heard it. I've been home sick this week (not Covid) and I was like, "did somebody just jump on my balcony?!" There is talk of it maybe being a meteor hitting our atmosphere. Most likely My wife and I felt something that I thought could be a snowplow going down the road. I would have been bummed if it was clear here and I missed it being in the house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 41 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: On the next episode of what's next in the year 2020. Can you rewind your nest cam? Clear enough out, maybe it caught it or heard it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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