BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 9" is the criteria for watch/warning over a 24 hour period in the NY portions of the Buf, Bgm, and Aly cwa. Probably Btv too. Yeah I know but figured it would lake effect snow watch, not winter storm watch unless those are retired? I thought they brought them back this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 If you look at the p&c forecast the NWS has us all changing over to snow Thursday night, so they are obviously expecting a little colder solution then some of the warmer guidance shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I know but figured it would lake effect snow watch, not winter storm watch unless those are retired? I thought they brought them back this year. Brought back the lake effect snow warning. Not the watch. It now goes from a winter storm watch to a lake effect snow warning if upgraded. Quite silly IMO but better than having now LES products and only WSW ones.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Last 2 runs of the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 GFS stubbornly holding its ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Come on GFS, win one for the Gipper..lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just synoptic.. Little different than the European..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just synoptic.. Little different than the European..lol Yep and just like that there goes BUFs potential verbatim. Storm further east bringing less synoptic and more Westerly winds than SW. I’m really surprised they issued a Winter Storm Watch so early when this things still 72 hr + till start of the lake effect. Obviously nothing saying it’s gonna be right, just goes to show one of the possibilities still on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I know but figured it would lake effect snow watch, not winter storm watch unless those are retired? I thought they brought them back this year. They brought back the lake effect snow warning but the watch and advisory just get lumped into winter storm header now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: LR Rgem You can see the buckle on the RGEM. Sign of an energetic impulse running up the front. Would snow hard for a bit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: You can see the buckle on the RGEM. Sign of an energetic impulse running up the front. Would snow hard for a bit! Yup, the GFS' position seems to be winning out here. Hoping the Euro follows suit with an eastward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Yep and just like that there goes BUFs potential verbatim. Storm further east bringing less synoptic and more Westerly winds than SW. I’m really surprised they issued a Winter Storm Watch so early when this things still 72 hr + till start of the lake effect. Obviously nothing saying it’s gonna be right, just goes to show one of the possibilities still on the table. Yeah, it's so hard to get the whole board involved..The system cuts farther west and most of us see no synoptic or LES (obviously Buffalo crowd would be happy) or it goes to far east and fringes western areas with little lake effect.. I'm hoping we all get into some synoptic action and worry about lake effect when the time comes.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: What are you thinking for totals off Erie and Ontario? Synoptically, as stated previously, 2-4/3-5.... I'd like to see tonight swans and tomorrow morning's runs, Before putting out totals, Once the energy is sampled better. It's gonna make a huge difference is to whether or not these bands move 10 or 15 miles or if they remain quasi-stationary (5-10 miles). There certainly is potential for both areas off both lakes to get over 2' if the latter occurs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: Synoptically, as stated previously, 2-4/3-5.... I'd like to see tonight swans and tomorrow morning's runs, Before putting out totals, Once the energy is sampled better. It's gonna make a huge difference is to whether or not these bands move 10 or 15 miles or if they remain quasi-stationary (5-10 miles). There certainly is potential for both areas off both lakes to get over 2' if the latter occurs. What intrigues me here is the snow could be a complete plaster job given the fast swing from warm and wet to cold and white. The scene on Christmas morning could be out of a Hallmark card... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: What intrigues me here is the snow could be a complete plaster job given the fast swing from warm and wet to cold and white. The scene on Christmas morning could be out of a Hallmark card... Yeah....maybe a few lightning bolts thrown in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 35 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Far from a lock, this could be an event where Hamburg to South Buffalo get 1-2 feet where Cheektowaga/Amherst sees next to nothing. It could not be but nothing is pointing that this band is definitely making it up here for sure yet. You feel the burn. Early season LES always ends up further north than modeled. Every time. Models always struggle with this. This is not to say the heaviest snows will be over northern Erie but I promise you it will not be a shutout either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 32 minutes ago, 96blizz said: GFS stubbornly holding its ground. Notice the LP over Superior...this is the reason winds go SW not the low itself...look at the top panel it’s in all models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Notice the LP over Superior...this is the reason winds go SW not the low itself...look at the top panel it’s in all models. Let’s get a Christmas miracle and have them catch each other and phase in the perfect spot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Notice the LP over Superior...this is the reason winds go SW not the low itself...look at the top panel it’s in all models. I’ve been wondering why the LP doesn’t allow north winds. That’s it! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I'm keeping an eye on the Ull.. The first image is a westerly flow(used loosely) event..Not an exact science but gives me a ball park idea.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Anytime BUF issues a watch this far out it usually ends up being a dud lol.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, ayuud11 said: Anytime BUF issues a watch this far out it usually ends up being a dud lol.. You’re back!!! I know it’s real when you show up... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 You can go about 5-10 miles north of any model with lake snow bands when lake temps are in the lower 40s still due to thermal troughing. I like where I sit and most of Erie county would have at least a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Anytime BUF issues a watch this far out it usually ends up being a dud lol.. I think they were just itching to issue something with how slow this winter has been so far especially with regards to lake effect: It’s the earliest I can ever remember a watch being issued. Not saying it won’t end up verifying but why rush to jump to a watch when you could realistically wait 24 hours and still have plenty of time to warn people? I would think they would at least want this thing to get in range of the mesos lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: You’re back!!! I know it’s real when you show up... I'm always lurking man we just didn't have nothing to get excited about hopefully we get slammed both by that first wave and the LES after like what the 12z GFS showed. Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: I think they were just itching to issue something with how slow this winter has been so far especially with regards to lake effect: It’s the earliest I can ever remember a watch being issued. Not saying it won’t end up verifying but why rush to jump to a watch when you could realistically wait 24 hours and still have plenty of time to earn people? I would think they would at least want this thing to get in range of the mesos lol. Yea man was actually surprised they had it as well lol.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: You can go about 5-10 miles north of any model with lake snow bands when lake temps are in the lower 40s still due to thermal troughing. I like where I sit. Yes I’d feel great if I were from Hamburg to OP to WS. South Buffalo id feel okay. Here in the Northtowns I’m a little skeptical. No problem chasing a few miles to see some rippage though just give us a band somewhere over Erie County even if it’s not over me directly and I’ll be happy haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18z European should be running soon for the synoptic portion but since the coast is toast I can't steal it from anybody lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You can go about 5-10 miles north of any model with lake snow bands when lake temps are in the lower 40s still due to thermal troughing. I like where I sit and most of Erie county would have at least a foot of snow. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Practically every GFS member is a decent hit..Mean SLP looks like it goes east of us into the Adirondacks and on north.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 41 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Practically every GFS member is a decent hit..Mean SLP looks like it goes east of us into the Adirondacks and on north.. This is what scares me, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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