Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Easy 1-2', Not often that is said. No it’s not. And just like December 2001 this looks to give a wide swath a good dumping of snow all across Erie County...in fact it might be a scenario where central/Northern Erie do better that southern Erie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Indices being what they are and given what the last storm did, my main concern is this shifts west or continues to go right over us. Obviously the best track for the majority of the forum is up the Hudson River Valley. The UKIE and the EURO are getting close to complete busts for Rochester to Syracuse. The Euro is close to being solid though (energetic little wave!). These next 48 hours are going to be critical- if it is progged to go any further west we won’t be able to rely on any last minute tick east. I still like the set-up and I still think we look good in Gennessee Valley and West. All the traditional lake effect folks are golden. How many Christmas dumps have you guys had? I feel like it happens a lot for BUF! Fun stuff boys. Merry Christmas. Hoping it’s real white!!!! Yeah, a bit concerned this thing passes right over us, delaying the front and missing heavier synoptic to the west...we will see as I don't think the timing will be resolved with the globals. Will need the NAM & HRRR to sort it out once in range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 “Troubling” “easily” lol. You guys in for a wild ride. Synoptically, GEFS doesn’t look good. It’s just one run.... I’m glad BUF disco thinks the cold air beats the moisture exiting and I think they said a few inches area wide. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Will start a new thread for the lake effect tonight. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Will start a new thread for the lake effect tonight. Liked your comparing this to the 2010 event. Very similar indeed. I would easily take a repeat on that one (sorry to the north-town guys). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Will start a new thread for the lake effect tonight. Would synoptic discussion stay here or lump it all together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 No mention of snow for anyone other than buffalo. What a joke buffalo is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 LR NAM for the synoptic portion.. Hopefully that cold air catches up with that heavy moisture.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Would synoptic discussion stay here or lump it all together? Separate. I'll do 2 new threads. One for general and one for the LES event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Glad you guys in buffalo are getting some lake love. Hopefully week after roc get theres. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Couldn't afford any more west that's for sure.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Goofy look on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I'm looking for the old "dust on crust" here in central NY. The residual glacier freezes to a brick and you get about an inch of fluff on top of it. Nice to look at but not much fun you can have with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Goofy look on nam. Out of it's good range still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 5 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Icon cuts west at 12z, setting up some SW flow.. Verbatim that's a brutal run for ROC. Rain, followed by nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, tim123 said: No mention of snow for anyone other than buffalo. What a joke buffalo is. In due time. Area wide will see a few to several inches. Probably 2-5 in the best case scenario. There is no need for them to address that in any more depth when things are still very uncertain synoptically 4 days out; and 2-5 inches of snow should be handled without headlines or fanfare around here if we are to have any sort of pride. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Verbatim that's a brutal run for ROC. Rain, followed by nothing. Yeah- that would blow but at least there is SW flow;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Icon a little quicker and east.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Yeah- that would blow but at least there is SW flow;( Heh, yeah, that's the thing, isn't it. Nobody has the same rooting interest here. Where I am, an event like this has to be mostly synoptic, maybe with a little enhancement off Ontario with N winds. W, SW, WSW, SSW, none of that ish matters to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 ICON went from a SW flow to a West-WSW flow just from that little change in track..It's going to be a while lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: ICON went from a SW flow to a West-WSW flow just from that little change in track..It's going to be a while lol I’m into the meso models starting tomorrow. All guidance is in the SW flow. How long it lasts Is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 From OSU I looked casually the past few day but I thought Christmas morning into evening looked really nice for buf and the immediate Southtowns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 LR Rgem 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Should be some moving bands, but looks to lock in Buffalo into southtowns for quite awhile at end of loop https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: LR Rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: More then 9", what a weird number. 9" is the criteria for watch/warning over a 24 hour period in the NY portions of the Buf, Bgm, and Aly cwa. Probably Btv too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 ^^^ Most of that falls in just one hour in Oswego county.. We'll start to get a better view this evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: See that LP just east of Lake Superior? That’s what makes this originally a SW wind event, once that moves east the winds will shift as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Ukmet actually shows it well..Wind direction is another story.. That right there is showing a triple lake connection and would likely produce some serious totals somewhere but it;ll change several times before game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 21 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m into the meso models starting tomorrow. All guidance is in the SW flow. How long it lasts Is the question. Far from a lock, this could be an event where Hamburg to South Buffalo get 1-2 feet where Cheektowaga/Amherst sees next to nothing. It could not be but nothing is pointing that this band is definitely making it up here for sure yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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