Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, vortmax said: 18z GFS again develops late and east. BUF seems to think this is incorrect. Not sure why KBUF is anti GFS this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 At least they reply on Twitter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: At least they reply on Twitter... Cop out answer. Either way SW winds show up by Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 All depends where the Ull goes which won't be figured out for a while..The para like the ukie sends this west of us but still wind up in the same area as the GFS, westerly flow...The european backs this enough to get a SW flow but the mean flow off Ontario is WSW which is similar to the Canadian..I have gotten burned with this West or WSW way to many times lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 ICON jumps a touch west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Last 2 runs of the gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 That LP cranking up in CPA is a good look 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Can 2020 get one thing right? 6z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Can 2020 get one thing right? 6z GFSThat would definitely put a smile on my face especially on Christmas day. The downstream blocking is gonna be key! I just don't think the GFS can hold serve for 14 more runs.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 KBUF still wants nothing to do with the GFS even though the Euro trended it’s way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Hey Wolfe can you post liquid equivalent when it's actually snowing, ThanksSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 KBUF still wants nothing to do with the GFS even though the Euro trended it’s way...If I were you I would just default to the Binghamton office because they have some good write-ups and then just extrapolate to Western New YorkSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I know it’s the Navy but it’s a great track... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On a side note... SSW in early Jan? Good way to start the new year. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-major-winter-warming-watch-january-2021-fa/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Great advice!!! Just read the AFD from Binghamton and they state most likely SW winds over WNY during Christmas for Lake effect...couple with the model I saw on the local news this am, it also showed the band snack over the metro for about 6 to 10 hours before heading south. It then appears it hangs in the southern tier until sat night when it could head back up to metro for Sunday...very active, very promising 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, vortmax said: On a side note... SSW in early Jan? Good way to start the new year. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-major-winter-warming-watch-january-2021-fa/ Been watching this potential...if it comes to roost those warm anomalies the NWS just put out for the rest of winter would be toast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Para GFS is a pretty solid hit for a lot of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Para GFS is a pretty solid hit for a lot of the state. Didn’t the Para do well with the last storm or was it the other GFS model? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Didn’t the Para do well with the last storm or was it the other GFS model? Para was better than OP which was abysmal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Regardless should be a wild event even if it's not that snowy, don't see temp swings like that too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 I'm back from the hardest hike of my life. 17 miles, -10 degree temps and 2-3 feet of snow at the summit. Took me 15 hours to complete, my hands were frozen, my toes were frozen, and I cant feel my legs but I did the Santorini ridge! 6 guys started the hike and only 3 finished the entire ridge. 24/46 peaks completed! Euro looks fantastic for LES, I'm still a little leary with the overall setup with dry air and wind direction being the biggest factors. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Last nights ukmet went off wrt to LES with a couple feet into the southern tug at 10-1..Gfs seems a little less enthused compared to previous runs.. LR NAM was also similar to the quicker gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The GEFS Mean .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro with a beautiful SW flow, lacks a little moisture but would be a big time metro event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Didn’t the Para do well with the last storm or was it the other GFS model?Did very well especially wrt total snowfall for the areas that got clobbered!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Coldest airmass of season pours across the region on Christmas Day with synoptic snow giving way to moderate to heavy lake snow east of both Lakes. Travel likely to become an issue, mainly from southern suburbs of Buffalo to PA line and east of Lake Ontario. Heavy lake snows Christmas night east of both lakes. Cap 8-12k ft so rates >2" likely with DGZ fully in play. Thunder/lightning will also be possible (esp east of Lk Ont). Impressive lake snows will persist through Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday morning, while remainder of the region will experience occasional snow showers under cyclonic flow aloft and mid winter temps well below freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Did very well especially wrt total snowfall for the areas that got clobbered! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Agree, para did well. I don't think any model really saw how that super banding would be over the I-88 corridor vs being placed in CPA...which is what I remember most NWP showing pre storm. Someone else posited this question the other day, maybe it was @BuffaloWeather which was...how the heck did such a relatively weak system produce the snowfall it did, even up into Central NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Agree, para did well. I don't think any model really saw how that super banding would be over the I-88 corridor vs being placed in CPA...which is what I remember most NWP showing pre storm. Someone else posited this question the other day, maybe it was @BuffaloWeather which was...how the heck did such a relatively weak system produce the snowfall it did, even up into Central NE. It perplexed all the mets on the New England forum, they didn't understand it. The banding in Southern Vermont and NH they understood, but the Binghamton banding they couldn't figure out. Hopefully some good papers will be written on it. I've never seen strong LES rates in synoptic like that outside of right along the coast or higher elevations in upslope. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Analogs for Fri-Sun LES event. I'd favor a Westerly flow at this moment. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2020122100&map=thbCOOP72 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Coldest airmass of season pours across the region on Christmas Day with synoptic snow giving way to moderate to heavy lake snow east of both Lakes. Travel likely to become an issue, mainly from southern suburbs of Buffalo to PA line and east of Lake Ontario. Heavy lake snows Christmas night east of both lakes. Cap 8-12k ft so rates >2" likely with DGZ fully in play. Thunder/lightning will also be possible (esp east of Lk Ont). Impressive lake snows will persist through Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday morning, while remainder of the region will experience occasional snow showers under cyclonic flow aloft and mid winter temps well below freezing. Bills clinch afc east and now this, and over a long weekend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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