Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, vortmax said: Man, that 00z Euro is a big hit for WNY starting Christmas Eve night...I'll take this one please! It’s why I’m confused the NWS is stating less snow with the euro? At least that was the depiction from the local Met this am who actually showed both the GFS and EURO runs... he said the GFS shows heavier accumulation and more moderate euro accumulation...that is not moderate by synoptic standards...well Binghamton kinda ruined that I suppose... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 We should be lucky if the AO and NAO are negative this winter. Sure we can suppress but imagine the cutters without it? The pacific is hot garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s been snowing pretty good in Rochester since 2am. We’ve probably had .3” of qpf but none of it has stuck. It’s mostly all melting on impact. Sad. We've accumulated probably an inch out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 We just "miss" out here in CNY on the euro, we'll see what future runs show.. I'd like to see that heavier banding a little SE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: It’s why I’m confused the NWS is stating less snow with the euro? At least that was the depiction from the local Met this am who actually showed both the GFS and EURO runs... he said the GFS shows heavier accumulation and more moderate euro accumulation...that is not moderate by synoptic standards...well Binghamton kinda ruined that I suppose... All they care about is Lake Effect. Let me translate- less lake effect snow in Buffalo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Large dendrites here. Moderate snow now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, vortmax said: Large dendrites here. Moderate snow now... Pretty cool how it keeps back building on radar. Precip signature was well represented on RGEM yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 48 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s been snowing pretty good in Rochester since 2am. We’ve probably had .3” of qpf but none of it has stuck. It’s mostly all melting on impact. Sad. I took the back roads from Avon to Victor to do some Christmas shopping, was an awesome drive each way. Nice sized wet flakes in the air to make it feel like Christmas is only a few days away. Totally bummed about the warm up coming for most of this week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Colder and not much rain so far on the 12z GFS. Pouring rain on Christmas Eve would be so 2020 tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Better late than never. GFS and EURO miles apart Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Colder and not much rain so far on the 12z GFS. Pouring rain on Christmas Eve would be so 2020 tho. The mid-week clipper looks a bit colder and south...that could be good with keeping the light snowpack... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Christmas Eve afternoon. Much better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 12z GFS definitely sped up the frontal passage...a good 12hrs or so. Only out to 108, but loosed the frontal wave....not good. Still drops 3-6 for most in WNY outside the belts. More of 270 LE direction...and keeps piling up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: It’s been snowing pretty good in Rochester since 2am. We’ve probably had .3” of qpf but none of it has stuck. It’s mostly all melting on impact. Sad. interesting. We had about a half inch of snow down here. It’s turned to a super slop layer now though as temps have finally started to climb a bit. Up to 34-35 whereas I sat at 32.5 all night. Missed out on a nice little refresher by a degree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: interesting. We had about a half inch of snow down here. It’s turned to a super slop layer now though as temps have finally started to climb a bit. Up to 34-35 whereas I sat at 32.5 all night. Missed out on a nice little refresher by a degree Still at 32 here, been that way for the last 18hrs or so. Warmer air definitely a bit slower to get on the east side. Got about 1-1.5" of fluff so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: interesting. We had about a half inch of snow down here. It’s turned to a super slop layer now though as temps have finally started to climb a bit. Up to 34-35 whereas I sat at 32.5 all night. Missed out on a nice little refresher by a degree Thoughts on Christmas Eve? Like you said, the models are having a heck of a time figuring out wave and CF placement. It’s like one of those 300 level physics problems: if a train is moving at 70mph and John shoots his gun at a Bison, how many feet ahead of the Bison should he aim? There are so many moving parts! These things usually have a pretty narrow swath of snow east to west going south to north; it’ll basically be luck. Obviously, south shore is in good shape if the wave forms anywhere SE of us. We might not hit the synoptic maxima but we’d have N winds to guarantee love from Ontario. If it forms west of us, it’s done- flash freeze and nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, vortmax said: Still at 32 here, been that way for the last 18hrs or so. Warmer air definitely a bit slower to get on the east side. Got about 1-1.5" of fluff so far. Wow! Yeah, nada up in Irondequoit. It was beautiful last night. Went for a Jeb walk at 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 GDPS out to 90 so far, but definitely a bit faster with the front. Might be a good trend to get the cold air here before Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Canook trying to get its act together. LP over CPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 GEFS Fwiw 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Some big hits on those members. Canadian is definitely looking better this run. Trending in the right direction! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: GEFS Fwiw Give me 19 and we’d all be happy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 With the indicies the way they are is anyone surprised how many storms cut in the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: With the indicies the way they are is anyone surprised how many storms cut in the 12z? Its wrong Gfs shows a massive block to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Great pack whitener today. Enjoying the snow, cracked a Prison City IPA and hoping my Dolphins can beat the Pats to stay alive. I think we can all root for them today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Gfs was a big hit east of the lakes.. Canadian was farther west and had more of a WSW flow.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Ukmet is mainly LES..Cuts the storm in between Erie and Ontario..Well aligned westerly flow as well.. Looking at the NWS LES archives most of our best events happen with the ULL in this vicinity.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 We are Nordic skiers so for me it’s all about the pack. I want that front to whip through. If we can do 12 hours in the 40s with a little snow after the skiing will still be great. It won’t touch this deep pack. A full 24 hours of 50s with high dews, rain and wind would be a pack melting disaster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 The Ukie isn't a good hit synoptically, but it's trending faster just like the others. A good trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, cny rider said: We are Nordic skiers so for me it’s all about the pack. I want that front to whip through. If we can do 12 hours in the 40s with a little snow after the skiing will still be great. It won’t touch this deep pack. A full 24 hours of 50s with high dews, rain and wind would be a pack melting disaster though. We are getting that regardless. Unfortunately. A lot of CNY can sustain that but the snow will be gone everywhere else. Which is why the wave is so important for the Niagara frontier and Gennessee valley. The traditional snow belts are golden in my mind. Lots of time. Kind of like where things stand 5 days out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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