Upstate/Eastern New York

[tim123]

That new radar is horrible. Why change? Its like they are going backwards in technology.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

38 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

My hope is you guys are in with no need to play anyone for seed in week 17 and we have an easier task. 
I grew up in the 80’s and 90s and know what y’all went through. 
Happy for you. Allen is the real deal!

Should be interesting!  We might have nothing to play for week 17 except knocking the fins out.  Also a good chance we could rematch the following week in the wild card. The Bills vs Dolphins days of the late 80s through mid 90s was the best!  Was fun to have a rival and not just the stupid Patriots that beat everyone every year.  

[rochesterdave]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Would you take a snowless winter for a bills super bowl?  
Hell Yeah!

 

Nope. I actually traded that Norwood field goal for the Storm of the Century. 

[Geez150]

2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Would you take a snowless winter for a bills super bowl?  
Hell Yeah!

 

Huge Bills fan but even more so a bigger winter fan. Give me a few good winters and then yes sign me up for absolutely zero snow or cold temps, with a Bills Super Bowl. That way we can go to a January playoff game with just a hoody on.

[vortmax]

00z GFS holds steady. SW wind LE drops lots. 

[rochesterdave]

Canadian wants to give us a few inches in the next few days

[cleetussnow]

4 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Absolutely!!!!

I need snow.  For better or worse, the gods don’t make such deals.  But this is amazing and I am not sure if there is a team the bills can’t defeat at this point.  

[rochesterdave]

Idea of a Christmas synoptic wave is decidedly out of favor with the 0z runs thus far. Including ensembles 

[rochesterdave]

Better late than never. GFS and EURO miles apart

[96blizz]

6z GFS is East with a more favorable solution. 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

RLMAO, the precip we were supposed to get today is so far a nice virga storm as nothing is reaching the ground.  Perhaps it did out near KBUF but it looks like Syracuse has a snow repellent surrounding the city and its suburbs cause as precip tries to enter the area it just seems to dissipate, lol, and it has happened several times already this yr. perhaps its just gonna be one of those years where stuff like this occurs.

I don't see anything good in the coming week as the first part of the week looked to be not bad yesterday and today its gone to shit, lol, and then Thurs-Fri event is slowly slipping as well but that one can be ironed out further but look at what just happened with the last event. We missed an historical storm by 50-60 miles, and if thats not a kick in the balls I don't know what is at this point, and nevermind that all of the events we've had thus far have been in the form of either rn/sn or plain rain as temps just haven't been there to support frozen precip and look, its happening again tday as temps were in the low teens and now their at 30 or above and their gonna keep climbing, not for you Wolfie , but its getting real frustrating.

Yeah theres a pattern change coming and to quote KBUF its a "Massive One", lol that'll last for a week, or 2 like the GFS shows. It would be a welcome change but getting there is gonna be a tough one as we gotta get through a lot of rain before we see any snow on Christmas if it even happens that way as we still got 4 days before its go time. And I dont wanna hear that the area in which the SW responsible for the full latitude trough is sparse in data cause we all remember what happened with the last one, absolutely nothing, lol!

IDK if any of you caught what Nick Nicosia head of operations and chief Met from KBGM said the NE is in for a lot of snow this yr, lol, well he ain't wrong in that aspect as the area he lives in just got 40" of fresh powder, lol, in fact a lot of the NE got hit except the Eastern great lake areas RLMAO so thats just  nuts as wel live in LE snow belts and we haven't seen any appreciable snow and I'm hoping that changes in the coming weeks!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

After I say all of that the GFS and EURO have the same solution somewhat, lol, but its not like what I said was wrong, lol

[96blizz]

Nice light snow in Skaneateles. 

[wolfie09]

Back to the big runs east of Ontario I see lol.. Didn't seem like the European was to enthused with LES and even the gfs seemed like a pretty quick event..

[wolfie09]

That's a pretty nice mean on the GEFS.. Doesn't account for all the LES..

[wolfie09]

Latest HWO..Not much talk about a synoptic snowfall, yet..

A strengthening storm over our region on Thursday could generate a
soaking rain into Thursday night. This rain combined with snow melt
could result in minor flooding. Strong gusty winds are also possible
during this time.

Significant lake effect snow will then be possible east or northeast
of Lake Ontario from Christmas Day through Saturday. While there is
still a lot of uncertainty in the track of the storm system, there is
growing confidence that travel in at least parts of the region could
be severely impacted by what could turn out to be a major lake
effect snow event. Any lake effect snow would be accompanied by gusty
winds as well.

[wolfie09]

Meanwhile, the initial trough will deepen as a strong area of PV
drops south along the western side of the trough. As the trough
deepens over the central portion of the U.S., guidance suggests
phasing with the southern more zonal stream over the southern
Rockies and southern Plains. As the strong area of PV rounds the
base of the trough a sfc low develops lee of the Appalachian and
tracks inland up the coast Thursday afternoon into Thursday night
along a cold front dropping south from the northern sfc low. A
strong 160 kt upper level jet develops over the Appalachian and
tracks north over the WNY area on Thursday. Guidance is still in
disagreement with timing and exact track, making it difficult to pin
point some of the timing of precip types.

There will be widespread rain to start for the event, but depending
on when the cold front from the northern sfc low crosses the area
and when the second sfc low goes up the coast, will determine how
quick rain changes to snow. After that, placement of the second sfc
low may cause a widespread synoptic snowfall as it tracks east of
the region, but this will be highly dependent on the placement of
the cold front as the second sfc low tracks north.

Behind the synoptic precipitation, and passing cold front,
cold air advection will bring 850H temps down to around -15C.
Combined with the cold air aloft, a negatively tilting trough, and
synoptic moisture still in place a lake response off of both Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie looks very favorable, and potentially a
significant lake event.

As far as guidance timing goes, a widespread rain ahead of the
passing cold front looks likely from Thursday morning into the
afternoon. Starting Thursday afternoon is where guidance is split on
frontal passage and changeover to snow. Timing issues with the speed
of the entire event still exists with the Euro a bit slower than the
rest of the guidance.

Temperatures out ahead of the cold front and sfc low will warm to
the upper 40s and low 50s on Thursday. Behind the passing front
daytime temperatures will only be in the low to mid 30s early Friday
and cool from there, and top out in the low to mid 20s for Saturday
and Sunday.

[Thinksnow18]

14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Latest HWO..Not much talk about a synoptic snowfall, yet..

A strengthening storm over our region on Thursday could generate a
soaking rain into Thursday night. This rain combined with snow melt
could result in minor flooding. Strong gusty winds are also possible
during this time.

Significant lake effect snow will then be possible east or northeast
of Lake Ontario from Christmas Day through Saturday. While there is
still a lot of uncertainty in the track of the storm system, there is
growing confidence that travel in at least parts of the region could
be severely impacted by what could turn out to be a major lake
effect snow event. Any lake effect snow would be accompanied by gusty
winds as well.

That’s in CNY? I noticed they only spoke of Lake Ontario LES

[Thinksnow18]

12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Meanwhile, the initial trough will deepen as a strong area of PV
drops south along the western side of the trough. As the trough
deepens over the central portion of the U.S., guidance suggests
phasing with the southern more zonal stream over the southern
Rockies and southern Plains. As the strong area of PV rounds the
base of the trough a sfc low develops lee of the Appalachian and
tracks inland up the coast Thursday afternoon into Thursday night
along a cold front dropping south from the northern sfc low. A
strong 160 kt upper level jet develops over the Appalachian and
tracks north over the WNY area on Thursday. Guidance is still in
disagreement with timing and exact track, making it difficult to pin
point some of the timing of precip types.

There will be widespread rain to start for the event, but depending
on when the cold front from the northern sfc low crosses the area
and when the second sfc low goes up the coast, will determine how
quick rain changes to snow. After that, placement of the second sfc
low may cause a widespread synoptic snowfall as it tracks east of
the region, but this will be highly dependent on the placement of
the cold front as the second sfc low tracks north.

Behind the synoptic precipitation, and passing cold front,
cold air advection will bring 850H temps down to around -15C.
Combined with the cold air aloft, a negatively tilting trough, and
synoptic moisture still in place a lake response off of both Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie looks very favorable, and potentially a
significant lake event.

As far as guidance timing goes, a widespread rain ahead of the
passing cold front looks likely from Thursday morning into the
afternoon. Starting Thursday afternoon is where guidance is split on
frontal passage and changeover to snow. Timing issues with the speed
of the entire event still exists with the Euro a bit slower than the
rest of the guidance.

Temperatures out ahead of the cold front and sfc low will warm to
the upper 40s and low 50s on Thursday. Behind the passing front
daytime temperatures will only be in the low to mid 30s early Friday
and cool from there, and top out in the low to mid 20s for Saturday
and Sunday.

The nice thing is either scenario we all score. It’s earlier with the GFS and about 12 hours later with the EURO. Nice to see as we get within 5 days now 

[Thinksnow18]

Wow the 3 indicies are all off the charts in our favor. We have to start looking at this being the base state for winter. All 3 have been in the right zones for what will be a full month and beyond... in fact the AO tanks by Jan 1 and even the NAO goes pretty negative for its forecast. I don’t remember the 3 looking like this in years.

[wolfie09]

8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

That’s in CNY? I noticed they only spoke of Lake Ontario LES

Yeah that's for pulaski but the buffalo HWO says the same but "Erie" instead of"Ontario" lol

[Thinksnow18]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah that's for pulaski but the buffalo HWO says the same but "Erie" instead of"Ontario" lol

Talk about the indicies what’s your thoughts? And if you could post them that would be incredible 

[wolfie09]

I don't really dabble to much into LR forecasting, I usually leave that up to you guys lol  The teleconnections do look favorable heading into the first week of January.. I'm just hoping the -NAO doesn't get to strong or we could be taking a suppressive pattern..

[wolfie09]

Getting a nice steady snow at the moment..

[Thinksnow18]

16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I don't really dabble to much into LR forecasting, I usually leave that up to you guys lol  The teleconnections do look favorable heading into the first week of January.. I'm just hoping the -NAO doesn't get to strong or we could be taking a suppressive pattern..

The thing is look how long they’ve been in our favor...I believe once a pattern sets up that it tends to be that base for the winter...since Dec 1st and for the 15th of November fir the PNA they have all been in the zones of e need. Yes I know the EPO also has alot to do with our weather as well but you can’t look at these and feel very positive about it

[CNY_WX]

21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Getting a nice steady snow at the moment..

I was lazy and slept in this morning so I didn’t do my measurements until 9.  We had  0.3 inch of snow with 0.02 liquid.  This snowfall might not amount to much but it’s nice having some mood flakes in the air this time of the year  

 

[vortmax]

48 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I don't really dabble to much into LR forecasting, I usually leave that up to you guys lol  The teleconnections do look favorable heading into the first week of January.. I'm just hoping the -NAO doesn't get to strong or we could be taking a suppressive pattern..

This is a great look for the beginning of winter...something we haven't seen in many years! More -NAO the merrier IMHO...

[vortmax]

Man, that 00z Euro is a big hit for WNY starting Christmas Eve night...I'll take this one please!

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, vortmax said:

Man, that 00z Euro is a big hit for WNY starting Christmas Eve night...I'll take this one please!

Congrats. We'll just be ice skating post frontal passage here lol

[rochesterdave]

It’s been snowing pretty good in Rochester since 2am. We’ve probably had .3” of qpf  but none of it has stuck. It’s mostly all melting on impact. Sad.