wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Since I'm bored lol Lots of energy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 16 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Yeah 00z is even better because winds back more SW than previous runs as the storm ends up tracking a little further west along that front as it moves into Canada. Would be a few days of nice SW slow after the storm riding the front drops several inches. Would definitley be a white Xmas for most. I couldn’t care less about the storm along the front, give me a few days of a WSW to SW flow and I’d be thrilled even if I’m not in the bullseye. The return interval of that true SW flow long duration event is well over a decade. There hasn’t been one with a stable SW flow resulting from a slow moving James Bay low in the time since I moved to WNY in 2012, and maybe not since October 2006 (though my understanding is that it was an early season meteorological outlier that saw bands curving northward from a more westerly flow) or Christmas 2001 before that) . So based just on probability, I wouldn’t expect this to be a SW flow Buffalo/Watertown event. But I would be happy to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, WNash said: The return interval of that true SW flow long duration event is well over a decade. There hasn’t been one with a stable SW flow resulting from a slow moving James Bay low in the time since I moved to WNY in 2012, and maybe not since October 2006 (though my understanding is that it was an early season meteorological outlier that saw bands curving northward from a more westerly flow) or Christmas 2001 before that) . So based just on probability, I wouldn’t expect this to be a SW flow Buffalo/Watertown event. But I would be happy to be wrong. Well the thing about those events is they’re roughly 15 to 20 years apart... 2001 was the last one and prior to that it was the blizzard of 85...we’re due 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 50 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Since I'm bored lol Lots of energy.. Looks like a PV invasion at the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 ICON only out to 120 for 18z but it shows a much different look. Runs an impulse up early- into Michigan....Not what I’d want. But it’ll change 19 more times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 G.F.S. Is damn consistent right now...rest of y’all are just fishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: G.F.S. Is damn consistent right now...rest of y’all are just fishing Yeah just like it was consistently wrong with the last event, lol! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 They all sucked last storm... they had that storm north, then south, back west then up the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 24 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: They all sucked last storm... they had that storm north, then south, back west then up the coast... Yes, but at least we had a storm to track that could be fun for Christmas time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Gefs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gefs Rain and a soaking one at that, yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 There ya go BUF 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 GEFS a touch East of 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Rain and a soaking one at that, yuck! Well many members go east of us which would be snow once you're on the other side of the CF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Some members may also have multiple waves making the GEFS hard to decipher.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Rain and a soaking one at that, yuck! Not for WNY 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Really think this one is gonna be a nail biter. This kind of scenario isn't easy for models to nail down early...timing - wise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Ahead of the system, much warmer air move northward into the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Thursday. Widespread rain will overspread the area Thursday as Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn all the way northward into the Great Lakes ahead of the full latitude trough. The rain may be heavy, although total amounts will depend on how fast the cold front arrives. A slower solution such as the 12Z ECMWF would bring much more rain and a potential for flooding, while the faster 12Z GFS solution would not produce enough rain for any flood concerns. The speed of the cold front and potential for another frontal wave moving north along the frontal zone will also play an important role in synoptic snow potential Thursday night through Friday. The ECWMF remains in the slow side of guidance, keeping precipitation rain even into Friday morning before cold air arrives later Friday afternoon with a change to snow from west to east. The faster GFS and GEM solutions would allow rain to change to snow from west to east Thursday night. Several model runs have shown a frontal wave moving north just east of our area, which would bring a more significant synoptic snowfall but the track and timing would have to fall into a very narrow window for this to verify. Eventually, much colder weather will be in store for the region as the system slides to our east and brings in colder air with 850mb temperatures dropping to near -15C by Friday night and Saturday. This may set the stage for a significant lake effect snow event, but the details are still uncertain. The GFS and GEM evolution behind the departing synoptic system appear most favorable, with a period of deep cyclonic westerly flow, and even some potential for southwest flow. The ECWMF is less favorable and later with the lake effect potential, with sheared westerly flow Friday night becoming northwest by Saturday. Extended range CIPS analogs based on the longwave pattern support the potential for significant lake effect snow to the lee of the eastern Great Lakes. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ahead of the system, much warmer air move northward into the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Thursday. Widespread rain will overspread the area Thursday as Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn all the way northward into the Great Lakes ahead of the full latitude trough. The rain may be heavy, although total amounts will depend on how fast the cold front arrives. A slower solution such as the 12Z ECMWF would bring much more rain and a potential for flooding, while the faster 12Z GFS solution would not produce enough rain for any flood concerns. The speed of the cold front and potential for another frontal wave moving north along the frontal zone will also play an important role in synoptic snow potential Thursday night through Friday. The ECWMF remains in the slow side of guidance, keeping precipitation rain even into Friday morning before cold air arrives later Friday afternoon with a change to snow from west to east. The faster GFS and GEM solutions would allow rain to change to snow from west to east Thursday night. Several model runs have shown a frontal wave moving north just east of our area, which would bring a more significant synoptic snowfall but the track and timing would have to fall into a very narrow window for this to verify. Eventually, much colder weather will be in store for the region as the system slides to our east and brings in colder air with 850mb temperatures dropping to near -15C by Friday night and Saturday. This may set the stage for a significant lake effect snow event, but the details are still uncertain. The GFS and GEM evolution behind the departing synoptic system appear most favorable, with a period of deep cyclonic westerly flow, and even some potential for southwest flow. The ECWMF is less favorable and later with the lake effect potential, with sheared westerly flow Friday night becoming northwest by Saturday. Extended range CIPS analogs based on the longwave pattern support the potential for significant lake effect snow to the lee of the eastern Great Lakes. Stay tuned. They always get so excited about lake effect. It’s the only time you can tell they’re excited. Heck, I guess it makes sense given their location. But it’s so dang predictable. “CIPS...Stay tuned.” Lol. If I had to guess (and you all know I’m terrible at this), I’d think BUF is looking good. The set up is there. It’s a perfect time frame. You’re due! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Bills about to win the AFC East!! Finally!!! The interval on this happening is about the same as a SW flow lake effect snow event off L Erie... 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Would you take a snowless winter for a bills super bowl? Hell Yeah! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Would you take a snowless winter for a bills super bowl? Hell Yeah! God that’s tough... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Would you take a snowless winter for a bills super bowl? Hell Yeah! Absolutely!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 HUGE Dolphins fan here. congrats. Well deserved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 35 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Would you take a snowless winter for a bills super bowl? Hell Yeah! Wouldn’t even think twice. I’d go snowless for 5 years for a Super Bowl win. Our winters are becoming garbage around here anyways lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, 96blizz said: HUGE Dolphins fan here. congrats. Well deserved. Thanks man. You guys have a solid squad this year too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Thanks man. You guys have a solid squad this year too. My hope is you guys are in with no need to play anyone for seed in week 17 and we have an easier task. I grew up in the 80’s and 90s and know what y’all went through. Happy for you. Allen is the real deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 That new Buffalo radar is even worse than I thought. It literally will not even load. How in the hell is that the finished “upgraded” product?! It’s mind boggling. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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