CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 6° at Hancock Airport and 31° in BuffaloSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhattanandcatskills Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 -12 this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 -9 the low here. I’d advise caution to anyone looking at the GFS for details. It was the worst model for this last storm, constantly showing the storm the further south and East and I think we all know where the storm went. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 After this, forecast confidence decreases with an active weather pattern developing across the area. Long range model guidance is in general agreement that sharp trough will evolve into a mid-level cut- off low somewhere near our area. This is likely to bring a soaking rainfall to the region Thursday into Thursday night. This will, eventually, be followed by much colder weather as this system slides to our east and brings in colder air with 850 mb temperatures dropping to around -15c by Saturday. However, model guidance is in poor agreement how we get there, making the Christmas eve/Christmas Day forecast a low confidence one. There are differences in both timing and track of the system which are unlikely to be resolved for at least a couple of days. For example the 00Z GFS is faster with the system with temperatures in the lower 20s on Christmas Day, while the slower/west GGEM has temperatures in the 50s. Since warm weather on Wednesday and Thursday should melt the snow on the ground at most locations, the evolution of this system will determine if there will be any snow on the ground for Christmas morning. Stay tuned... Multi-model and ensemble consensus along with standard deviation anomaly charts favor a massively anomalous event in the period staring Christmas eve and extending through Christmas. A negatively- tiled mid-level short wave looks to advance northeastward toward the area in a strengthening and highly-curved upper jet pattern. Although location is uncertain, this has the potential to produce 2+ inches of rain somewhere in the northeastern states. There`s also a potential for a convective shower-line with gusty winds, however 00Z model guidance has shifted the best chance for this to the south and east of our region. Looking ahead to next weekend, there is little doubt that it will be much colder, supporting the potential for lake effect snow. It`s too early to pin down location yet, but significant accumulations are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Massively anomalous event starting Christmas eve. Man, we better get a white Christmas this year! Not digging the more westward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 54 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said: -9 the low here. I’d advise caution to anyone looking at the GFS for details. It was the worst model for this last storm, constantly showing the storm the further south and East and I think we all know where the storm went. Well so was the European lol Which showed a tenth of inch of precip for ksyr within 24 hours and that area picked up 6"-8".. Actually the tracks on all the models were pretty similar it was how much precipitation made it north that was the issue.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: After this, forecast confidence decreases with an active weather pattern developing across the area. Long range model guidance is in general agreement that sharp trough will evolve into a mid-level cut- off low somewhere near our area. This is likely to bring a soaking rainfall to the region Thursday into Thursday night. This will, eventually, be followed by much colder weather as this system slides to our east and brings in colder air with 850 mb temperatures dropping to around -15c by Saturday. However, model guidance is in poor agreement how we get there, making the Christmas eve/Christmas Day forecast a low confidence one. There are differences in both timing and track of the system which are unlikely to be resolved for at least a couple of days. For example the 00Z GFS is faster with the system with temperatures in the lower 20s on Christmas Day, while the slower/west GGEM has temperatures in the 50s. Since warm weather on Wednesday and Thursday should melt the snow on the ground at most locations, the evolution of this system will determine if there will be any snow on the ground for Christmas morning. Stay tuned... Multi-model and ensemble consensus along with standard deviation anomaly charts favor a massively anomalous event in the period staring Christmas eve and extending through Christmas. A negatively- tiled mid-level short wave looks to advance northeastward toward the area in a strengthening and highly-curved upper jet pattern. Although location is uncertain, this has the potential to produce 2+ inches of rain somewhere in the northeastern states. There`s also a potential for a convective shower-line with gusty winds, however 00Z model guidance has shifted the best chance for this to the south and east of our region. Looking ahead to next weekend, there is little doubt that it will be much colder, supporting the potential for lake effect snow. It`s too early to pin down location yet, but significant accumulations are possible. Who uses the GGEM?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Who uses the GGEM?!?!?! Nws uses the"big 3" Gfs, Canadian and european.. As of right now the GFS is the only model spitting out synoptic snows, GGEM,EURO, Icon all west..The 6z gfs jumped a little west as well.. Edit: 0z icon was actually east of previous runs, still warm and rainy verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: Thicknesses shrink about 2.5 miles (400dam) in 18 hrs....Serious cold advection!!! Serious flash freeze potential between melt and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 31 minutes ago, vortmax said: Massively anomalous event starting Christmas eve. Man, we better get a white Christmas this year! Not digging the more westward trend. Based on recent history 50F and raining on Christmas doesn't seem anomalous at all. In fact the most likely forecast for Christmas 2021 is currently to be 50F and raining.......... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Got down to -2°. Finally finished the dig out last night, just moved here and didn't have time to get a snow blower (so many other things needed and $$) didn't think I'd get 3' either had to shovel the entire sidewalk, yard approaching garage and the worst was the driveway. Had to walk out each shovelful too. What a nightmare lol. Definitely worth it though as it was possibly the best event of my life right up there with 96, boxing day, and Jan 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Seems the excitement might be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Seems the excitement might be over. We jump WAAAAAAYYYY too much from one model run to the other...what do the ensembles show? Plus the GFS has been consistent the last few runs...the euro has shown 3 different scenarios in this timeframe...as Aaron Rogers once famously quipped, R E L A X 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I am looking past the Christmas event to the possible lake effect pattern 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 40 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: We jump WAAAAAAYYYY too much from one model run to the other...what do the ensembles show? Plus the GFS has been consistent the last few runs...the euro has shown 3 different scenarios in this timeframe...as Aaron Rogers once famously quipped, R E L A X I am and will continue to model hug. Even 8 days out, if a 6 or 18z iteration calls the storm off- it’s off. Same the other way. If kuchera shows two feet, two weeks out- it’s good. If not. Bad. Hahaha! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 51 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Seems the excitement might be over. I would be excited over this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I would be excited over this God please lock this in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Icon east and colder verbatim, would be a little south shore enhancement on the backend as well.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Icon east and colder verbatim, would be a little south shore enhancement on the backend as well.. Lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Last 2 runs of the gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Blitzed again on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 We all flip over to some snow early Christmas morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: We all flip over to some snow early Christmas morning.. Consistent...say it with me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Blitzed again on the GFS. It's ok but wouldn't call it blitzed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 But obviously I’m twice as geeked at the plume of LES right up the gut of Lake Erie smiling the metro and the northern burbs...that has also been consistent...this storm is only 5 days away... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's ok but wouldn't call it blitzed lol Short term blitzed. Should have rephrased. No need to be snarky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Obviously lots to be worked out. But I like the idea of snow for christmas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: But obviously I’m twice as geeked at the plume of LES right up the gut of Lake Erie smiling the metro and the northern burbs...that has also been consistent...this storm is only 5 days away... 5 days is an eternity in model land, example the storm just a few days ago. The good thing is the signal is there for a big event and that has been rather consistent run after run but small changes can have big impacts especially when your dealing with rain vs snow from the storm riding up the front and where it ends up north of us in Canada will have an impact on the wind direction. I think this could be a great set up both synoptically and lake effect but I also could see a scenario the storm cuts more to our west and lands up over us then due north of us causing us rain from the storm along the front and a wind that’s more Westerly\WNW as the storm goes north of us. I won’t feel more comfortable until Sunday night and even that’s pushing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Short term blitzed. Should have rephrased. No need to be snarky. Hmmm I'm not sure how that sounded"snarky" by correcting you lol 3 inches in a 6 hour period is not even short term blitzed, need the storm farther east.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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