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Upstate/Eastern New York

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DeltaT13
DeltaT13

Spent some time sprucing up my backyard weather observatory this year.  Snowboard is in place along with a my total snowfall on the ground stake.  Official cocorahs rain guage is setup and in winter m

rochesterdave
rochesterdave

Nope. I actually traded that Norwood field goal for the Storm of the Century. 

BuffaloWeather
BuffaloWeather

I'm back from the hardest hike of my life. 17 miles, -10 degree temps and 2-3 feet of snow at the summit. Took me 15 hours to complete, my hands were frozen, my toes were frozen, and I cant feel my le

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted

Great post on the CPA thread... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54120-central-pa-winter-20202021/?do=findComment&comment=5757372

Not sure about everyone else but what I am seeing on the models recently as we head into prime climo has me stoked for our snow chances from the mid-Atlantic up into the NE. Below is a 5 day mean from the Euro that shows the general pattern we are moving into and which looks to have some staying power. We are seeing a PV setting up over the northern Hudson Bay as well as over the Aleutian Islands. This configuration is forcing the pattern through the mid-latitudes as to we are seeing ridging in the west and troughing in the east.  The placement of these features are almost ideal as we see the ridging just west of Idaho and the troughing showing a neutral state through the Mississippi valley.. Around both these features we are also seeing a steady stream of energy rotating around them to either amplify on their own or to phase. Not to be outdone we are seeing the N Atlantic cooperate as we are seeing blocking setting up and maintaining. This is a money look to me. Now some might look at this and go, 'But it doesn't show any signs of a 50/50 low!' and they would be right. But I could almost guarantee that with what we are seeing here we would see lows running through and getting locked in for periods of time in the general 50/50 region with this setup. These lows would come from either the PV, which is well placed over the N Hudson Bay and aligned to send lows into that region or mid-latitude lows as they amplify in the east. As they say in the movie Field of Dreams, 'Build it and they will come', if you build that N-Atlantic blocking the 50/50 lows will come.

One thing that is not represented in the below map is what we are seeing with the southern stream. What we are seeing there is very promising as well. We are seeing a continuous bumping up and amplification of that from out of the gulf and up the East Coast throughout the period. This not only provides a possible moisture feed for any developing storms in the mid-latitudes but also puts on the table phasing as well as potential true blue Miller A's. 

If this is what the base state (after any relaxes) will look like for a majority of the winter I think that many in the East will be happy with the results.

Euro500sdec18.thumb.gif.b070f13a9ac724825ef11f1e5270914a.gif

 

Now I do not want to dismiss the coming 10 days as I think there are opportunities showing up and it will be a matter of timing and placement of the energy streaming through the CONUS, but beyond day 10 has my interest somewhat. I am seeing indications of the possibility of a big East coast storm beyond day 10. Though the hints are somewhat subtle on other maps, what we are seeing with the southern jet is somewhat noteworthy.  We see shortly after day 10, the southern stream setting up from the south and running up the east coast throughout the extended. Not only that it is a strong signal as well when you consider a couple of things. First off we are talking the extended, so features get muted and washed out as individual members on the ensembles go their own way the further out in time you go. And second we are talking the tropical jet which resides more towards the 300 mb domain then the 200 mb which is represented on this map. So the fact that the 200 mb's is picking up on it fairly strongly is probably suggestive of a very strong jet. So what does this all mean? It means that the jet is honking the possibility of a strong system running through the south and then turning up the coast.

 

Eurosouthernjetdec18.thumb.gif.34ab5e706075c281be682cca54bcf91b.gif

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wolfie09

wolfie09

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Posted

COLD FRONT PLAINS TO EAST THEN POTENTIAL NEW STORM GULF TO NORTHEAST: A cold front will move through the Plains and Midwest Dec. 22-23 with gusty winds and some snow moving across the Midwest into the Great Lakes; this includes Chicago. Rain showers will break out south along the front to the lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will drop dramatically behind the front in the central and northern Plains, perhaps below normal the rest of the period. Cold front continues to head east but may stall between the Appalachians and the East Coast on Dec. 24. There is a chance that a wave of low pressure forms along the cold front Southeast and moves north. The trend is looking better for another big storm up the East coast and only if the upper trough deepens. If not, then the wave will head off shore and may impact eastern Canada rather than the East Coast

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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Just peeked at the indicies and I love what they’re showing. PNA is positive (has been since end of November, maybe BW or someone can look at this for longevity) and is forecast by months end to go very positive again...NAO is slightly negative and is forecast to stay just that way for the next 16 days and the AO stays negative with some signs of very negative...the thing is all three began these trends right around meteorological winter and haven’t budged. We’ve seen this in past winters where what’s happening at the end of November early December stays that way the majority of the winter...could this be an indication these 3 indicies in the mean will stay where they’re at?

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Just peeked at the indicies and I love what they’re showing. PNA is positive (has been since end of November, maybe BW or someone can look at this for longevity) and is forecast by months end to go very positive again...NAO is slightly negative and is forecast to stay just that way for the next 16 days and the AO stays negative with some signs of very negative...the thing is all three began these trends right around meteorological winter and haven’t budged. We’ve seen this in past winters where what’s happening at the end of November early December stays that way the majority of the winter...could this be an indication these 3 indicies in the mean will stay where they’re at?

All about that EPO though. Not sure what that’s forecast to be but I’m pretty sure we’ve had all 3 of the other indices you mentioned lined up already this season with nothing but warmth because of a bad EPO. Better than a positive AO and NAO and neg PNA though so hopefully we can get something out of it.

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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

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2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

All about that EPO though. Not sure what that’s forecast to be but I’m pretty sure we’ve had all 3 of the other indices you mentioned lined up already this season with nothing but warmth because of a bad EPO. Better than a positive AO and NAO and neg PNA though so hopefully we can get something out of it.

Agreed. EPO controls that raging Pacific jet (no?) which has been our downfall these last winters. We’ve got to give these features time to develop before being rushed OTS. BING got it because the storm caught and turned at just the right latitude. 
Everything else seems to be lined up nicely but I’m no expert on indices- that would be BUF Weather, Freak, Wolfie or SYRmax

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vortmax

vortmax

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Just now, rochesterdave said:

Agreed. EPO controls that raging Pacific jet (no?) which has been our downfall these last winters. We’ve got to give these features time to develop before being rushed OTS. BING got it because the storm caught and turned at just the right latitude. 
Everything else seems to be lined up nicely but I’m no expert on indices- that would be BUF Weather, Freak, Wolfie or SYRmax

I disagree. I think the -NAO is more important and what we've been missing in the wintry months for the past couple of years. 

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

All about that EPO though. Not sure what that’s forecast to be but I’m pretty sure we’ve had all 3 of the other indices you mentioned lined up already this season with nothing but warmth because of a bad EPO. Better than a positive AO and NAO and neg PNA though so hopefully we can get something out of it.

Well it is cold now and expected to be the coldest airmass of the season Christmas onward 

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