Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Going buy old maps precip on ukmet looks a bit better than 12z. Sad turn of events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Maybe make a run at below zero..I'm not expecting anything here in lewis county obviously lol I'll be down in Oswego county in the afternoon, may be to late if they see anything at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Gives roc .5 precip. With luck we can pull out 6 to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Several of the models seem to be also working towards the GFS in creating a pocket of lesser totals pushing into Oswego County/on my doorstep while to the west they do better. It's Tug Hill laughing at the lowlanders as downsloping eats away at the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just to dry with that HP to the north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Radar looks more robust out in mdwest than on models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Euro with a little tick North. But I do love Canadians. Probably the last great weenie map for this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 18 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Euro with a little tick North. But I do love Canadians. Probably the last great weenie map for this event. Yeah seems hard to believe BGM could potentially push 20" while SYR is only 4-5", but Euro is adamant on the sharp cutoffs. Guessing the remaining watches will be converted to warnings from Steuben to Otsego counties, with a WWA for the rest of the northern counties save maybe northern Oneida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah seems hard to believe BGM could potentially push 20" while SYR is only 4-5", but Euro is adamant on the sharp cutoffs. Guessing the remaining watches will be converted to warnings from Steuben to Otsego counties, with a WWA for the rest of the northern counties save maybe northern Oneida. Sure seems to be the theme. I’d still watch for some last minute adjustments north or south or banding placement. If any area surprises I’d think it would be Syracuse. They usually do well with this track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Sure seems to be the theme. I’d still watch for some last minute adjustments north or south or banding placement. If any area surprises I’d think it would be Syracuse. They usually do well with this track... Yeah I agree. 18z EPS mean qpf actually increased a bit, so there definately solid potential for thruway areas to still get 6+ out of this esp since ratios should be around 15:1 I'd think. See what 0z EPS shows, but based on the control run moving north a bit, I'd expect similar uptick in the EPS mean too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 0z EPS mean qpf is actually noticeably lower across the board than previous runs. Some tightening could be expected as previous outlier solutions are smoothed out, but didnt think it would contract by that much. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Getting to the transition point where short term mesoscale models and nowcasting take over anyway I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Spectrum went from 8-10" to 1-3", lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Sad to see how quiet it is on here this morning...hopefully next week brings the goods as the Xmas storm is all over the place and I’m not in the mood for just another deep dry cold shot after a storm missed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Under a warning here now for 7-14 inches. County to my north has an advisory. It's going to be close where that sharp cutoff sits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 32 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Sad to see how quiet it is on here this morning...hopefully next week brings the goods as the Xmas storm is all over the place and I’m not in the mood for just another deep dry cold shot after a storm missed us. You can always tell if it’s good or bad based on the replies. When I saw how few were active I knew we busted. It was always a bust. The typical 36 hr nw fake-out got us! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Channel 9 still calling for heavy snow tonight. 1-4 for Oswego County, 4-9 for Onondaga County. I’m right on the border of the two zones so I guess about 4 inches for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: You can always tell if it’s good or bad based on the replies. When I saw how few were active I knew we busted. It was always a bust. The typical 36 hr nw fake-out got us! Things look good for at least a moderate snowfall out this way, but there are oddly few of us in ENY on here. Meaning east of Utica, and in the Albany-Glens Falls corridor. I think I remember there being more of us in the old Eastern US weather board. There's little point in celebrating alone, lol. ALB, Saratoga, and the eastern Mohawk Valley down to BGM look to do OK, as far as Upstate is concerned. Maybe areas up to the Thruway corridor can hopefully get something decent out of it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Stash said: Things look good for at least a moderate snowfall out this way, but there are oddly few of us in ENY on here. Meaning east of Utica, and in the Albany-Glens Falls corridor. I think I remember there being more of us in the old Eastern US weather board. There's little point in celebrating alone, lol. ALB, Saratoga, and the eastern Mohawk Valley down to BGM look to do OK, as far as Upstate is concerned. Maybe areas up to the Thruway corridor can hopefully get something decent out of it too. What happened to Logan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Polarbear said: What happened to Logan? I've seen him around occasionally. Maybe in the New England forum. I also think a few folks from here may have migrated to another board, so he might be there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I think the biggest snowstorm I've experienced during my time in Upstate New York was in November 2018 when we had something like a 10 inch snowstorm in Redfield. Pretty lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I think the biggest snowstorm I've experienced during my time in Upstate New York was in November 2018 when we had something like a 10 inch snowstorm in Redfield. Pretty lame. Yeah that's pretty bad. That likely changes this year, sometime in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I think the biggest snowstorm I've experienced during my time in Upstate New York was in November 2018 when we had something like a 10 inch snowstorm in Redfield. Pretty lame. We have had some good ones although one of the downsides of living here is memory gets swamped by the barrage of middling events and lake effect, which sometimes make a prolonged 2 or 3 day storm/event. It all sort of blends together. I'd have to look at my Cocorahs records. Forecast of 2-3" here by NWS is pretty much what I was thinking here a couple days ago. Syracuse proper may squeeze out a few more inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I think the biggest snowstorm I've experienced during my time in Upstate New York was in November 2018 when we had something like a 10 inch snowstorm in Redfield. Pretty lame.Bro, since you moved into to he area to the weather has progressively gone down hill, ! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: We have had some good ones although one of the downsides of living here is memory gets swamped by the barrage of middling events and lake effect, which sometimes make a prolonged 2 or 3 day storm/event. It all sort of blends together. I'd have to look at my Cocorahs records. Forecast of 2-3" here by NWS is pretty much what I was thinking here a couple days ago. Syracuse proper may squeeze out a few more inches. I'd love to be not on "the line" for once... haha Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Bro, since you moved into to he area to the weather has progressively gone down hill, ! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I warned you guys...it's the legend of my weather curse. When I moved to West Michigan, they were breaking "warmest ever" records as well. lol Climate Change and me make one powerful team. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, Stash said: Things look good for at least a moderate snowfall out this way, but there are oddly few of us in ENY on here. Meaning east of Utica, and in the Albany-Glens Falls corridor. I think I remember there being more of us in the old Eastern US weather board. There's little point in celebrating alone, lol. ALB, Saratoga, and the eastern Mohawk Valley down to BGM look to do OK, as far as Upstate is concerned. Maybe areas up to the Thruway corridor can hopefully get something decent out of it too. I'm in eastern NY. Southern Adirondack/Great sacandaga lake region. NWS has us at 7-14. Nam and short range look really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Bro, since you moved into to he area to the weather has progressively gone down hill, ! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Down Hill because of Tug Hill. Change your username tug. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 32 minutes ago, Stash said: Things look good for at least a moderate snowfall out this way, but there are oddly few of us in ENY on here. Meaning east of Utica, and in the Albany-Glens Falls corridor. I think I remember there being more of us in the old Eastern US weather board. There's little point in celebrating alone, lol. ALB, Saratoga, and the eastern Mohawk Valley down to BGM look to do OK, as far as Upstate is concerned. Maybe areas up to the Thruway corridor can hopefully get something decent out of it too. I'm up near the Albany area for this storm...I think it will be better here than where I'd usually be, along I95 in MD! My main concern is if the secondary mid-level (~700-mb) band stays just south of ALB, and we're stuck in the subsidence zone of the circulation during the period of heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Down Hill because of Tug Hill. Change your username tug. Hah! I tried, but it said I couldn't! It said it had been changed too recently. Perhaps I'll change it to Yoursnowisdoomed!Matt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Down Hill because of Tug Hill. Change your username tug. Snowhole Matt 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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