wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Hour 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Euro SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Hour 42 Looks slower, later onset of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Wow. Euro LP scoots almost due east. Stays around 998/99mb. The model diagnostic discussion will be an interesting read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, vortmax said: Nice point. Also, we still get decent humidity and temps when the winds do back NE. I think the S Shore will see accumulating snow for significantly longer than inland. Still thinking 6-8 range. This frame of the UKIE supports that theory showing a nice little 1.5" of bonus snow overnight Thursday into Friday morning for KROC. We shall see. Just that 1.5" of snow is more than I thought we would get from the whole storm just 24 hours ago! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Boooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 At 42 pretty similar to the ukmet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I pretty much threw in the towel on this last night. Along with the rest of the month! I'm waiting for the next model wobbles at 00Z but, it's looking like we could get a few inches here (GFS has 0.0 for us BTW). Stay the course! GFS is straight garbage and you know it, lol, it'll never change unfortunately that's the reason even the NWS defaults to the ECMWF which is quite sad but kudos has to be given to the GFS for it's consistency of being wrong , Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Euro Meh. Marginally improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: GFS is straight garbage and you know it, lol, it'll never change unfortunately that's the reason even the NWS defaults to the ECMWF which is quite sad but kudos has to be given to the GFS for it's consistency of being wrong , Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk GooFuS Uber Alles! But look at that Euro run though...its not budging off of the idea that we get barely brushed. I stick to my 1-3" expectation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Not that the JMA is any good but just another model that has been trending north..See what the EPS members show.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Euro is not what it was 3 years ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Not that globals are wrong, but shouldn't the meso models hold more water this close? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Will be interesting to see if NWS KBUF or KBGM expand any Advisories or Watches based on the "B" team's 12Z runs. Gotta think the GFS and Euro looks will give them pause before jumping on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 So anywhere from an inch or two to 15” Solid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 European really not that far off..If it's just a little too strong with it's confluence than obviously this Comes north.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GooFuS Uber Alles! But look at that Euro run though...its not budging off of the idea that we get barely brushed. I stick to my 1-3" expectation here.Id be happy with 1-3", but I'd triple that call to 5-9" especially considering ratios which should be quite high so we'll see how it all comes together!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Updated tracker thanks to a member on another board..(source below) SOURCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: European really not that far off..If it's just a little too strong with it's confluence than obviously this Comes north.. This map really looks good to me. The distribution of snow actually makes sense as opposed to some of those wacky solutions out of the lesser used models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NYC is not getting anywhere near what the EURO is showing or the GFS for that matter but I can be wrong. The SST's just off the Coast of Jersey are in the Mid to upper 50's! With a screaming easterly flow they are gonna mix or change to slop fo sho!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Euro is still the king, always ride it within 24 hours. Guess we will see, almost a now cast event, the storm is here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: NYC is not getting anywhere near what the EURO is showing or the GFS for that matter but I can be wrong. The SST's just off the Coast of Jersey are in the Mid to upper 50's! With a screaming easterly flow they are gonna mix or change to slop fo sho! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I was looking at some model wind fields and thinking same. They will be fighting that and the mid level center tracks. If they go west or over them its a problem for them sooner than later in the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro is still the king, always ride it within 24 hours. Guess we will see, almost a now cast event, the storm is here tomorrow. It might be but I think the GFS performed better with the NE event last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro is still the king, always ride it within 24 hours. Guess we will see, almost a now cast event, the storm is here tomorrow. The 00Z runs tonight will be the most important in our lives! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Euro might be king bit its crown is definitely tarnished 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Let's see what eps says. Bet its higher than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: The 00Z runs tonight will be the most important in our lives! My wife sometimes watches The Bachelor. Every week it's "The most dramatic rose ceremony ever"! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 52 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I pretty much threw in the towel on this last night. Along with the rest of the month! I'm waiting for the next model wobbles at 00Z but, it's looking like we could get a few inches here (GFS has 0.0 for us BTW). Stay the course! Yeah, I saw the GFS trolling us. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Updated tracker thanks to a member on another board..(source below) SOURCE If those tracks held through NYC instead of Delaware, we'd be in great shape. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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