Upstate/Eastern New York

[rochesterdave]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm pretty sure the SREFS are based on the WRF extended models. NMM and ARW. They're terrible, just like the ICON. If you click on this and go to right middle part of page you can select model cores. NMM/ARW

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Thanks! Yeah, they are bad. I’ve learned the hard way, over the years, to mainly trust the big 3-4 operational models. Especially in the mid range. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, rochesterdave said:

Thanks! Yeah, they are bad. I’ve learned the hard way, over the years, to mainly trust the big 3-4 operational models. Especially in the mid range. 

Euro and GFS Ensembles for anything beyond day 5. Within 1-4 days and combo of Euro/UK/GFS/GEM. Avoid NAM and RGEM until within 48 hours, unless lake effect snow.

[rochesterdave]

Canadian made a pretty big jump. Puts the LP in SE NJ at 998. 

[BuffaloWeather]

A nice NW flow LES event 2 days before christmas on GFS @TugHillMatt

[Thinksnow18]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A nice NW flow LES event 2 days before christmas on GFS @TugHillMatt

I literally believe the GFS has showed just about every option for that timeframe today...from a blizzard on the 6z to a cutter rain storm and LES event to this thing...

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

I literally believe the GFS has showed just about every option for that timeframe today...from a blizzard on the 6z to a cutter rain storm and LES event to this thing...

Of course it would, its 9 days out. That's what model watching is all about.

[Syrmax]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Of course it would, its 9 days out. That's what model watching is all about.

Most global models are generally a P.O.S. Outside of 5 days.  Which is a big improvement over 20 years ago. Not sure what the limitations of accuracy will evolve to in our lifetime.

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS has been extremely consistent for the next storm though. It's off on its own. It's either going to score a coop of epic proportions or go to the dumpster.

[BuffaloWeather]

@Thinksnow18

First time seeing this storm while doing some research. Pretty unique area of highest snow totals

[Ericjcrash]

UK is an absolute crusher. 

[Ericjcrash]

Big shift by euro... tomorrow should be fun

[sferic]

9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Big shift by euro... tomorrow should be fun

Indeed !

[BGM Blizzard]

0z EPS would support a WSW for the remainder of BGM CWA with the exception of Northern Oneida, but I suspect they will probably await 12z before going too bullish.

[rochesterdave]

3k NAM creeping NW. it’s gonna be big somewhere close

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Man what a waste of a decent amount of QPF during last night's lake effect band because it sat over me I'd have to imagine for a good five six maybe seven hours even if it's still a half inch an hour we'd have four or five inches right now but no it snowed grauple and rain mixed because we hovered around 36 just horrific for December 14th

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[96blizz]

“Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!!!!”

We got this today boys. The NW climb continues!!!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I'm sure none of us forget about the 24 to 36 hour trend right before any event would come crawling up either the coast or like this one a Miller b so the chances are definitely there for us to get at least a few to several inches I'm not talking about the amounts down in Southeast New York and Northwest Jersey and in Northeast PA but it should be plowable I'm hoping because ratios should be very high like many have alluded to. Remember just like the rain snow line races into Central New York it does the exact same thing in the mouth of the Hudson as the warm air off the ocean just inundates the whole area and it's very easy for the coastal regions or even for the storm to come a little bit more northwest for that reason but we'll see I'm definitely optimistic still for something! If this would have happened it would almost save a putrid December

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I also got to say I really can't pinpoint any model that has done better than the other now if we want to pick the GFS as scoring a coup on this one I don't know if that's possible yet because what about if this thing does come northwest quite a bit but the GFS has been Southeast all along so that's the model that has been wrong consistently basically so we wait and see and yes blizz today is going to be a very important day for model watches, lol!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Thinksnow18]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@Thinksnow18

First time seeing this storm while doing some research. Pretty unique area of highest snow totals

I remember that storm so we’ll. I didn’t have school for 4 days as it snowed just about every night. That was one of the best childhood snow memories 

[LakeEffectKing]

3" in Caz. overnight.

I think there is still some sorting out in model land to be had.

 Safe to say this will not be a total whiff for points South and East of an Ithica/Syracuse/Utica line,  as had been  depicted by several models at one time or another.  Decreasing lead times and the trend over the last couple runs leads me to believe that we are at least going to have a minor to moderate impact from this storm in CNY and points SE.  WNY should sneak out an inch or two, imo, att.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

3" in Caz. overnight.
I think there is still some sorting out in model land to be had.
 Safe to say this will not be a total whiff for points South and East of an Ithica/Syracuse/Utica line,  as had been  depicted by several models at one time or another.  Decreasing lead times and the trend over the last couple runs leads me to believe that we are at least going to have a minor to moderate impact from this storm in CNY and points SE.  WNY should sneak out an inch or two, imo, att.

I'm definitely in ur camp George!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Thinksnow18]

6 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

3" in Caz. overnight.

I think there is still some sorting out in model land to be had.

 Safe to say this will not be a total whiff for points South and East of an Ithica/Syracuse/Utica line,  as had been  depicted by several models at one time or another.  Decreasing lead times and the trend over the last couple runs leads me to believe that we are at least going to have a minor to moderate impact from this storm in CNY and points SE.  WNY should sneak out an inch or two, imo, att.

If the euro output is right it would have .2” of liquid equivalent over KBUF with temps in the 20’s a ratio of 15 to 1 would equate to almost 4”. Now that’s not a big deal in all accounts, however, the NWS says an inch for the Buffalo-Syracuse line...high confidence. KBUF has never been hyped about this.

[Thinksnow18]

The 6z would have quite a cold snap after Xmas and a bunch of clippers. I take.

[Syrmax]

I measured about 3/8ths of an inch of snowfall and 0.9" liquid.  Ratio was poor.  

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

I measured about 3/8ths of an inch of snowfall and 0.9" liquid.  Ratio was poor.  

Understatement of the year.

[BuffaloWeather]

HPC seems overzealous in our area getting a decent event

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

The 6z would have quite a cold snap after Xmas and a bunch of clippers. I take.

Best run of the year so far with those clippers and cold air. We would all be getting several inches of snow nearly every day for that entire week. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I remember that storm so we’ll. I didn’t have school for 4 days as it snowed just about every night. That was one of the best childhood snow memories 

This is awesome I didn't even know about it. What were the max snowfall totals? 100 Cm+ would be 40"+

[Syrmax]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Best run of the year so far with those clippers and cold air. 

GFS lurches from Spring is near to mid winter conditions run to run.  I'm onboard for early Spring.  And it's not even winter yet, technically!  

[wolfie09]