BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 1:26 AM, Syrmax said: Details vary run to run of course but December looks lost for us. I’m actually hoping we get a super mild winter. If I can’t get a decent December (around here) the rest of the winter becomes mostly uninteresting. We are due for a long run of below normal snowfall just by reversion to mean, compared to the last decade or two. And that’s ok by me. Expand I'm the same way. December is my favorite winter month, followed by January. Feb/March are usually lame as Erie is frozen. So if we lose rest of December we got 30 days left of winter. Synoptic just doesn't do it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 1:30 AM, BuffaloWeather said: I'm the same way. December is my favorite winter month, followed by January. Feb/March are usually lame as Erie is frozen. So if we lose rest of December we got 30 days left of winter. Synoptic just doesn't do it for me. Expand .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry weather expected Friday and Saturday as surface high pressure moves in behind the exiting coastal storm. Temperatures will begin to warm up as a southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Chances for rain and snow showers increase Saturday night into Monday as the cold front crosses the region. Only a brief period of cold air advection occurs behind the front before a southerly flow takes over and mild temperatures begin the work week. Thank god. Let’s get some 50s in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Its like pulling teeth just to drop below freezing, its absolutely maddening because if it was cold enough, I'd have a couple inches by now easy but no I have graupel falling in the middle of December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 in a few days NYC will have had more snow for the season than most of Upstate NY, RLMAO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 This band thats effecting me right now ain't that bad but were sitting at 35 damn degrees, WTF!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 1:51 AM, CNY-LES FREAK said: Its like pulling teeth just to drop below freezing, its absolutely maddening because if it was cold enough, I'd have a couple inches by now easy but no I have graupel falling in the middle of December! Expand I know! I have been thinking the same thing! We finally get some lake influence and it HANGS above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It's pounding under these bands...but it's a snow/graupel mix. It sounds like hail hitting the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If only the SREFs could be right for once... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM coming in HOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Dam forgot about sref plumes. Gives roc a avg of 9 inches. Spread is like 1 inch to 25 inches. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 2:21 AM, tim123 said: Dam forgot about sref plumes. Gives roc a avg of 9 inches. Spread is like 1 inch to 25 inches. Lol Expand Yep...the SREFs are our hope...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I always was saying I think this gives wny 2 to 5 inches. Primary has more influence that's usually undermodeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 What exactly are SREFS? Are they a NAM product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 1:24 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Hopefully we see a pattern change for Jan. April and May were the only months below normal this year. Every other month was substantially warmer. I thought La Ninas were not as warm as El Ninos were for our area? Or is it just global warming is taking over any ENSO state? Jan +8.1 Feb +3.1 March +7.3 April -2.5 May -.9 June +.8 July +6.5 August +3.9 Sep +2.2 Oct +1.0 Nov +5.8 Dec +4.0 Expand That squares with my impression. "Winter" was super warm and uneventful, but then spring was cool, which really just meant it was about 50 degrees from March through mid-May. I'd strongly prefer the opposite. Give me 5 degrees below normal in March, then 5 degrees above normal in April/May/June. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 My GOD if only, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 11:14 PM, BuffaloWeather said: If I was to go with a map it would be this one. Expand My gut feeling is the axis will be a little more NE than ENE. Not enough to get us into the action, but I think Springfield, MA will do better than New Haven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Can we have the 12Z run of the NAM back please? 00Z = meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Icon a nice 3 to 7 for western ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 2:43 AM, rochesterdave said: What exactly are SREFS? Are they a NAM product? Expand I pretty much look at them as the NAM ensembles lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:00 AM, TugHillMatt said: Can we have the 12Z run of the NAM back please? 00Z = meh. Expand Give it up. This storm is a non event here. So is December. And with any luck Jan and Feb. Let’s go Low! But then again, I’m looking at retiring in Portugal so don’t mind me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Icon for the coup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS throwing some love at WNY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It’s subtle but the 00z GFS has a broader snow shield over WNY and has 7+ inch snows near the letchworth area. Even Buffalo on this tin would be 2-4”...small victories 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 1:52 AM, CNY-LES FREAK said: in a few days NYC will have had more snow for the season than most of Upstate NY, RLMAO!!! Expand It's 2020, it's acceptable this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 3:59 AM, Thinksnow18 said: It’s subtle but the 00z GFS has a broader snow shield over WNY and has 7+ inch snows near the letchworth area. Even Buffalo on this tin would be 2-4”...small victories Expand 0Z GFS basically scoots the wave out to sea with barely Warning criteria snow up to SNE coast and LI. Mainly a mid Atlantic snowstorm from eastern WVA up to CPA and interior NJ. It showed this look a few runs back IIRC. Would suck for our Catskills friends... The really odd look is how the central southern tier of NY jackpots a bit. Which almost never happens. It’s like a photographic negative of a typical synoptic snowstorm distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:05 AM, Syrmax said: 0Z GFS basically scoots the wave out to sea with barely Warning criteria snow up to SNE coast and LI. Mainly a mid Atlantic snowstorm from eastern WVA up to CPA and interior NJ. It showed this look a few runs back IIRC. Would suck for our Catskills friends... The really odd look is how the central southern tier of NY jackpots a bit. Which almost never happens. It’s like a photographic negative of a typical synoptic snowstorm distribution. Expand Yeah that is the snow hole of NY...In 2020 anything is on the table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'm pretty sure the SREFS are based on the WRF extended models. NMM and ARW. They're terrible, just like the ICON. If you click on this and go to right middle part of page you can select model cores. NMM/ARW https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Canadian way NW fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 4:21 AM, Ericjcrash said: Canadian way NW fwiw Expand Is there a last minute Hail Mary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It's all going to come down to tilt. The tracks that go more NE provide much more snow to NY state compared to the ENE tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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