Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Maybe WNY can cash in on some snow if it tucks close enough to the coast before heading ENE.. The local WIVB future look shows the snow reaching all of WNY and giving all from Buffalo south and east and 3+ further southeast...it doesn’t add in any lake enhancement from Ontario at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The local WIVB future look shows the snow reaching all of WNY and giving all from Buffalo south and east and 3+ further southeast...it doesn’t add in any lake enhancement from Ontario at all. There won’t be any lake enhancement with ENE winds except maybe the Lake Ontario shore line. This thing isn’t cutting up the Hudson River bringing us northerly winds on the backside. If we see enough to cover the grass in BUF that would be a huge win IMO lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Probably a good time to take up fishing haha Soon my back yard will be the salmon river(litterly lol) , it's a big decline though so I probably can't fish from my back yard lol I enjoy the sounds of the"rapids" though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 So BuffWeather is on to something regarding the -EPO. All 3 indices will be in the proper level for us to be cold the ENTIRE month of December yet we are barely getting any cold air with the exception of the next 3 1/2 days finally. I’d love to learn more about the EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Probably a good time to take up fishing haha Soon my back yard will be the salmon river(litterly lol) , it's a big decline though so I probably can't fish from my back yard lol I enjoy the sounds of the"rapids" though.. Ummmmmm...see you in spring?!?!?! I mean after all we can build a walkway leading down... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So BuffWeather is on to something regarding the -EPO. All 3 indices will be in the proper level for us to be cold the ENTIRE month of December yet we are barely getting any cold air with the exception of the next 3 1/2 days finally. I’d love to learn more about the EPO Well we're literally 100 miles from a monster storm for the entire region. It worked out, just timing of waves and jet were off. It's a really good pattern for big synoptic storms and cold air after this system passes, although its very dry air with no LES. Basically just unlucky. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 We had a really sweet snow shower move through here around 5. It was coming down really hard. Picked up yet another coating (lol)...if it had been colder and the ground wasn't so warm from all the November weather we've had, we probably would have been close to an inch. Only 791 more coatings and I'll hit average. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 The top analogs are interesting for this storm. Just goes to show you how unlucky we got with this one. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2020121412&map=thbCOOP72 11/14/1997 is the top http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2020121412&dt=1997111412 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 If I was to go with a map it would be this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: If I was to go with a map it would be this one. It's hard to trust a map where they can't even spell "call" correctly... 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's hard to trust a map where they can't even spell "call" correctly... Didn't realize that, but that map looks about right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 HPC gives us a glimmer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's hard to trust a map where they can't even spell "call" correctly... Spelling aside its probably the most reasonable map to date. Location of heaviest snows looks good and no goofball Kuchera numbers anywhere to be seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The top analogs are interesting for this storm. Just goes to show you how unlucky we got with this one. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2020121412&map=thbCOOP72 Wow! That’s wild. 75% are great hits. I guess it’s like you said, bad luck. That HP putting a hurt on us. Ive not totally given up. But close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Spelling aside its probably the most reasonable map to date. Location of heaviest snows looks good and no goofball Kuchera numbers anywhere to be seen. Oh, I agree it's a good call. The ELA teacher in me, combined with my sarcasm, just HAD to post a response to it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, I agree it's a good call. The ELA teacher in me, combined with my sarcasm, just HAD to post a response to it. lol Never mind the spelling......they moved Birmingham into the southern tier of NYS! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Couple pieces of energy to watch down the line lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z Euro....off hour but nerves beginning in earnest again Went from 10-12 to 6-8 this run. 0z will be huge and very telling for the fates of everyone north of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 hours ago, sferic said: I'll Take this, you? While I do like this, trends tonight will be very telling. 18z Euro isn't helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: The top analogs are interesting for this storm. Just goes to show you how unlucky we got with this one. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2020121412&map=thbCOOP72 11/14/1997 is the top http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2020121412&dt=1997111412 Wow, December 16th, 2007 is one of the analogs? I was living it Ottawa at the time, and that storm dropped 17". Among the most amazing storms I've ever lived through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: If I was to go with a map it would be this one. Birmingham eh? I weep for the future... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Syrmax said: Birmingham eh? I weep for the future... This guy definitely failed geography and english. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This guy definitely failed geography and english. Probably over excited and spooging on his laptop in his mom’s basement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Probably over excited and spooging on his laptop in his mom’s basement. Boing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 This looks appetizing. Bring on Spring! ... Make that Summer cuz Spring is the new Winter in these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This looks appetizing. Bring on Spring! ... Make that Summer cuz Spring is the new Winter in these parts. I see our new winters as being a 5 month extension of November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This looks appetizing. Bring on Spring! ... Make that Summer cuz Spring is the new Winter in these parts. Yeah I don't really see much in the long range. A roller coaster pattern, averaging 2-3 degrees above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Hopefully we see a pattern change for Jan. April and May were the only months below normal this year. Every other month was substantially warmer. I thought La Ninas were not as warm as El Ninos were for our area? Or is it just global warming is taking over any ENSO state? Jan +8.1 Feb +3.1 March +7.3 April -2.5 May -.9 June +.8 July +6.5 August +3.9 Sep +2.2 Oct +1.0 Nov +5.8 Dec +4.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I don't really much in the long range. A roller coaster pattern, averaging 2-3 degrees above normal. Details vary run to run of course but December looks lost for us. I’m actually hoping we get a super mild winter. If I can’t get a decent December (around here) the rest of the winter becomes mostly uninteresting. We are due for a long run of below normal snowfall just by reversion to mean, compared to the last decade or two. And that’s ok by me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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