wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Icon with a little north jump, tight cutoff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 RGEM 12z slightly closer to Jersey coast, precip marginally further NW..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I am hoping this is an trend that we will atleast get something. I am thinking we either get a dusting to an inch....or we get 3 to 6 inches (my call from a couple days ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 Looks good for @Ericjcrash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: If it happened like that...with the cutoff JUST to my south...heads will roll. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6Z GFS is pretty much a complete whiff for upstate NY. But, its a 6Z run...and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks good for @Ericjcrash Definitely feeling a little more optimistic this morning. The broader precip shield look is nice and reasonable given the mid and upper levels. Should be decent ratios as well so not too concerned over QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS has been extremely consistent, doubt it changes much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 Looks like it went even further SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Can't ignore GFS still until it for sure tanks to other guidance. I wouldn't be shocked if something like the GFS happened but brought further north a tad. RGEM being in tandem with it is somewhat telling. We will see what euro does in a few hours. Right now if I were to blend everything I'd still probably get 8-12 while somewhere near NYC easily gets over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS has been extremely consistent, doubt it changes much. Sweet then I hope it stays locked and loaded for Xmas eve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12z GFS looked bit more organized at H5 and SLP got down to 993mb in vicinity of the Delaware Bay at Hour 66 as compared to 1000mb on the 6z run at the same interval, but it doesn't look like the track shifted north much if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z GFS looked bit more organized at H5 and SLP got down to 993mb in vicinity of the Delaware Bay at Hour 66 as compared to 1000mb on the 6z run at the same interval, but it didn't really track any further north unfortunately. Someone close to NYC will get the jack if a blend of RGEM and GFS plays out. That band on RGEM will crush whoever ends up under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 + 10 for temps yesterday and +4 for the month. -11.8 for snowfall on the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Id bet my house right now that NYC and the Jersey shore mix or even change over to plain rain for a time before transitioning back to snow but that's just me. I don't care what the GFS shows or any model for that matter as experience trump's all of that in my book. Got skunked way to many times not to see the writing on the wall.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z GFS looked bit more organized at H5 and SLP got down to 993mb in vicinity of the Delaware Bay at Hour 66 as compared to 1000mb on the 6z run at the same interval, but it didn't really track any further north unfortunately. The H500 presentation doesn't look all that impressive on GFS/CMC based on another quick scan. GFS pretty much keeps a positively tilted trough that looks to be weakening with time as it heads east. I can believe a weaker / more suppressed solution plays out if that's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This euro run will be telling. The heaviest snow axis might be beginning to actually get nailed down. Somewhere between SEPA and NYC will get close to 2 feet I think. Question remains: where is the northern extent of snow? Riding very much on that at the moment. Most every run has taken me from over 1' to 6-10 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said: This euro run will be telling. The heaviest snow axis might be beginning to actually get nailed down. Somewhere between SEPA and NYC will get close to 2 feet I think. I don’t this storm has the dynamics or duration to justify those amounts. I think it’ll be a lot of 8-12” totals in the sweet spot. But I’m usually wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: The H500 presentation doesn't look all that impressive on GFS/CMC based on another quick scan. GFS pretty much keeps a positively tilted trough that looks to be weakening with time as it heads east. I can believe a weaker / more suppressed solution plays out if that's right. I really don't think this is a difference (directly) as how different models the models "see" the storm...it's more about the differences in how much the confluence to the NE is being depicted/handled by the various models, and that indirectly plays a key role in how the mid level features play out....right now the GFS doesn't develop any (or very little) FG forcing in the mid levels in NYS, but many of the other models do, to various degrees. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: I don’t this storm has the dynamics or duration to justify those amounts. I think it’ll be a lot of 8-12” totals in the sweet spot. But I’m usually wrong... RGEM had a pretty good death band pivoting from SEPA onto LI--somewhere near there could be jackpot. Also kind of doubt 2'+ as I always have with this but can just as easily assume somewhere in there gets up to 18" max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I'd be happy to see a bunch of clippers and cold fronts with a little LES sprinkled in lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Forcing on NAM vs GFS. Night and day for CNYgfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 But I also think it has to do with if the 500 closes off. As you can see, it does not on the GFSbut does on the NAMbeing right on the north side of a closed 500 is usually the sweet spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The GFS snowstorm is gonzo for Xmas day but as eluded to by Wolfie it’s cold and clipper like...I’m starting to sense a longer term winter like pattern evolution...also FWIW Cohen shows the GFS model having 2 more wave impulses the rest of December which will continue to beat the PV down a bit and make way for potentially more significant winter weather in January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: But I also think it has to do with if the 500 closes off. As you can see, it does not on the GFSbut does on the NAMbeing right on the north side of a closed 500 is usually the sweet spot. Right the GFS is treating it more like an open wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'd be happy to see a bunch of clippers and cold fronts with a little LES sprinkled in lol Would like that to be a little colder, looks pretty warm still. Give me that pattern all January and this winter will be a win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 GEM is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not a great sign. Sitting at the fringe in setups like these doesn't work out at least half of the time. Going to sweat this one out without a doubt over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Would like that to be a little colder, looks pretty warm still. Give me that pattern all January and this winter will be a win. BW with all due respect those temps from the 22nd on are highs in the 20’s area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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