rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 We have a closing off here. I think this is what makes the difference. GFS (0z) is wide open and progressive here. RGEM joined GFS camp. likely getting NAM’ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Honestly Matt, if the look was the Icon and the 0z NAM, at 3 days out, I’d still have hope. But they (and the Ukie) are off on their own. And none of them are great models this far out. Obviously, I’ll still watch but we all know this one was sunk when the EURO jumped to the GFS. It’s one more feather in the cap of the goofus. It really has been hot for this lame winter. Well then if the Goofus is Hot then it has now for 3 runs shown a basic blizzard for Xmas day for upstate and the track is believable 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Well that would just be a Merry Christmas indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Solid shift NW on 6z euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: 6z NAM. Good Morning What’s humorous is the WIVb future look showed the NAM scenario of snow overspreading WNY but the Met Andrew Baglini downplayed it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: What’s humorous is the WIVb future look showed the NAM scenario of snow overspreading WNY but the Met Andrew Baglini downplayed it... They just showed the new run Euro on Spectrum news and it looked like even BUF was in play... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This is the potential shift we've been hoping for when real sampling of the energy happened. Let's see how 12z plays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: They just showed the new run Euro on Spectrum news and it looked like even BUF was in play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 EPS are really nice. Don’t give up at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 How far South was the Euro at 00Z cause it doesn't look, to these trained eyes, that it shifted at all, but I'm also going somewhat blind the closer I get to 50! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Enjoy . Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Verbatim this is a rain to snow event for CNY and an all-out Blizzard for WNY but that'll change 40 times over as it's 12 days away but it's does look like the GFS is now once again showing cold and snowy conditions right through the holidays. I'm in Little Falls and it has begun to snow, temps around 30 but it will be short lived unfortunately but it feels good to see snow falling!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: How far South was the Euro at 00Z cause it doesn't look, to these trained eyes, that it shifted at all, but I'm also going somewhat blind the closer I get to 50! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk It’s the 6z that people with a paid subscription can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Verbatim this is a rain to snow event for CNY and an all-out Blizzard for WNY but that'll change 40 times over as it's 12 days away but it's does look like the GFS is now once again showing cold and snowy conditions right through the holidays. I'm in Little Falls and it has begun to snow, temps around 30 but it will be short lived unfortunately but it feels good to see snow falling!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk You’re in my hometown. I graduated from Little Falls High and my older brother still lives there. We lived on the south side, supposedly the bad side of town. If you look towards the south at the base of the valley wall there’s a church. We lived three houses up from that church. If you don’t mind me asking what kind of work are you doing there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 36 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: How far South was the Euro at 00Z cause it doesn't look, to these trained eyes, that it shifted at all, but I'm also going somewhat blind the closer I get to 50! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk You know how you scoffed at me yesterday when I said this is the time to see things change as sampling is better? Hopefully this is the NW shift coming into play with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12z a little SE. Not that I believe the NAM anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 0z ukmet was a little south of 12z but still delivered a little snow to the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 A slight shift from 06z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 And if this storm does provide "some" goods....I think the ratios will be a good deal higher than 10:1.....probably more like 12-14:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Nam not that different than the UKMET, always going to see a sharp cutoff with these type of events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 You’re in my hometown. I graduated from Little Falls High and my older brother still lives there. We lived on the south side, supposedly the bad side of town. If you look towards the south at the base of the valley wall there’s a church. We lived three houses up from that church. If you don’t mind me asking what kind of work are you doing there?I'm up at the High School doing sheet Vinyl and LVT tile. I'm a Union Carpenter for local 277 in Syracuse and I absolutely love it up here!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This is how WB keeps it's subscribers lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: This is how WB keeps it's subscribers lol I'll be right here for the storm, going to be close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Rgem not buying it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I'm up at the High School doing sheet Vinyl and LVT tile. I'm a Union Carpenter for local 277 in Syracuse and I absolutely love it up here! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk It was a nice town to grow up in, especially in the middle of the baby boom. My neighborhood was an ethnic melting pot when I was little. Gradually as the older immigrants started dying off and the mills in town moved out it started to decline. The high school where you’re working opened when I was in 11th grade. It burned down in 1975 (most likely arson but never proved) and was rebuilt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: In a similar Nina pattern go look at what happened off of Ontario in 2006-2007. Lake Erie was on the verge of freezing, if it was 1-2 weeks sooner similar totals would have been found off of Erie. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2006-2007&event=L Isn't Lake effect off Ontario usually all winter long because it's a deeper lake? There are exceptions of course during cold winters like 2013-14 or 2014-15. Unlike Lake Erie which usually freezes over because its shallower. But over 100" in a week? WOW! That's insane!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem not buying it.. 12Z hasn't ran yet. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowstorms said: Isn't Lake effect off Ontario usually all winter long because it's a deeper lake? There are exceptions of course during cold winters like 2013-14 or 2014-15. Unlike Lake Erie which usually freezes over because its shallower. But over 100" in a week? WOW! That's insane!!! Yeah, lake Ontario does not freeze. Lake Erie fully freezes over 70% of winter years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: 12Z hasn't ran yet. Let's see. Duhhhh lol Thanks Mixed up my times, should be running now.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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