Geez150 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Ba humbug. That kinda year. Pattern hast to break at some point. Yup almost has the feel of throwing in the towel already. I know most of you don't like cold and dry. But sign me up for that vs. warm anything. We need some long term cold before we even think about snow. At least if it's 25 and dry with a dusting on the ground it will feel like winter, that's more than I can say for snow today gone tomorrow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 41 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yesterday was +16 at Buffalo. +3.5 for the month 56/38 High/Low How warm were Dec 2015 and Dec 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Jackpot!! 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Jackpot!! Hey, better than my nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Jackpot!! A Christmas Miracle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I’m interested in the details when the meso models come into better range. They are horrible with lake enhancement and lake effect so there may be a part of these we don’t see yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Seriously, Euro!!? Right when some of the other models start to go your way, you jump towards the GFS. Gaaaaaaahhhhh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 27 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Seriously, Euro!!? Right when some of the other models start to go your way, you jump towards the GFS. Gaaaaaaahhhhh Let them have their fun now. We'll make it up in April! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 EPS Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: EPS Source Thanks Wolfie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I'll take that 998 over northern MD... Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, vortmax said: I'll take that 998 over northern MD... Lol Deleware memorial bridge one would work too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 That euro main run made me both smile and grimace both at once. Still fine but this could still get ugly in a hurry. If this keeps trending south I'll still take 5-8 but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I think I'm throwing in the towel on this one. Aside from the pretty horrible track, the strength is pretty pathetic too. 12z GFS has it "bottoming out" at 999mb, lol.....ugh. This is a tough start for sure. The Downstaters still have some hope for some scraps. She gone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: How warm were Dec 2015 and Dec 2018? Dec 15 was the warmest ever by almost 5 degrees, Dec 2018 was +3.2 Average temp 42.1 2015 Dec 2015 had 1" of snow Dec 2018 had 14.1" There is a very strong correlation between above average snowfall in Dec and above average snowfall years at KBUF. Mainly due to lake Erie freezing in late jan/early feb. We get about 10 weeks of lake effect potential each year, have to make full use of it. You can see the top 10 list of all weather data for KBUF here https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: 3-6" events are a common thing in the Great Lakes. We haven't had a good clipper in years though. I'm assuming W or NW winds are the best for your region. It's been a terrible start to winter, yet again. Dec 2017 was the last best December. Hoping we can turn things around post Dec 20. Dec 2017 was incredible in the southtowns. I think we had like 5 LES events and 2 20"+ events. Finished with 152.4" that year. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2017-2018&event=B 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 I didn't realize how warm Dec 15 was. To be the #2 spot by almost 5 degrees is just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Kbufs forecast discussion is shorter then it is in the middle of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I didn't realize how warm Dec 15 was. To be the #2 spot by almost 5 degrees is just crazy. I didn’t realize we may end 2020 with a near snowless December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: I didn’t realize we may end 2020 with a near snowless December We're at 5.6" in December already which already puts us outside the top 10 least snowiest Decembers. 4.8" is the cutoff for top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Do we start to get a better Pacific towards end of the year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Kbufs forecast discussion is shorter then it is in the middle of July. Perhaps they are big winter weather lovers too and just disgusted with the long range. That 12z run is a pain train for just about all of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We're at 5.6" in December already which already puts us outside the top 10 least snowiest Decembers. 4.8" is the cutoff for top 10. Yeah and I think at one time our of that 5 1/2” I may have had 2 inches at best OTG at one time. Not once this year with snow cover and no grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Not that anyone cares about the 84 HR NAM but definitely a shift SE towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yup...checking out the 18Z NAM I need to go to the Mid Atlantic Panic Room or the New England Meltdown thread. Gosh, what awful winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Not that anyone cares about the 84 HR NAM but definitely a shift SE towards the GFS. I don’t think anyone thought this was going to weaken so much and just basically become a wave vs. a tightly wound up LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 EPS suggests a balmy Christmas Eve and then the GEFS shows a cold reload after the 26th. Right on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Are we going to get some flurries during this game tonight? What’s going on in Hamburg BW? The radar is showing the slightest hint of some lake activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Are we going to get some flurries during this game tonight? What’s going on in Hamburg BW? The radar is showing the slightest hint of some lake activity. Looks like just enough to make it look nice for tv. That’s fine by be, I don’t want anything that might inhibit air allen. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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