cleetussnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Today is the day for big changes...certainly by 0z. That’s the wrong direction and yes a strong enough block can shut out NYC even! Not our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Today is the day for big changes...certainly by 0z. That’s the wrong direction and yes a strong enough block can shut out NYC even! Not our storm. That GFS run wasn't very comforting. 0z will tell all. Essentially back to where we were this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Maybe the GFS is on to something as its definitely been the steadiest of the globals thus far so who knows! They've all been somewhat steady in their own way but one of them has to have the right idea, No?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not even close on the GFS.. Yeah I’m surprised this is such a progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS has stuck firm (except for that one blip). Hate to say it but this one has likely sailed. In reality it kinda sailed a long time ago. We were just hanging on hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On top of all of this, the indices are all in our favor as well so who the heck knows what we need these days to get a simple snowstorm, lol??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: My gut tells me @crossbowftw3 or (if in liberty) @sferic jackpots come Thursday Yup, in Liberty ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Maybe the GFS is on to something as its definitely been the steadiest of the globals thus far so who knows! They've all been somewhat steady in their own way but one of them has to have the right idea, No?? I honestly can’t handle the mid Atlantic scoring before we do... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 LR rgem tucked similar to the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I don't think anyone in WNY thought they were getting anything significant from this system anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I wonder if a lot of this is due to the first one being a bit stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: I don't think anyone in WNY thought they were getting anything significant from this system anyway. I know none of the Buffalo people were even watching.,The Rochester people believe in miracles and hail Mary’s, so we watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: I know none of the Buffalo people were even watching.,The Rochester people believe in miracles and hail Mary’s, so we watch. Too soon 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: I know none of the Buffalo people were even watching.,The Rochester people believe in miracles and hail Mary’s, so we watch. I think we may in fact need a miracle for our area just to see some snow, WOW, I never thought I'd be saying that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Its all about the handling of upper air. The will be a deep easterly flow that is moist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: On top of all of this, the indices are all in our favor as well so who the heck knows what we need these days to get a simple snowstorm, lol??? Yeah but the coast can say the same lol They also need a -NAO, +PNA and-AO..You have a 50/50 locking in that strong high, good set up for the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Too soon If you guys beat Arizona the cardinals would be 5-7 just like the Giants. We need to beat them, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Cmc taking baby steps towards nam icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Canook with a taste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah but the coast can say the same lol They also need a -NAO, +PNA and-AO..You have a 50/50 locking in that strong high, good set up for the coast.. No doubt, the set-up is good for all of us as the blocking isn't that strong but until the first blows up over Labrador we won't really know how strong it really is! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Been moving nw for past 4 runs keeping primary longer into ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yup, baby steps lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said: Hey all. IMO, as has been discussed a bit earlier and needs to be emphasized, for much of Upstate NY, the exact track of the slp is less important than the evolution of the mid and upper level features, particularly at the h850 and h700 levels. The models currently indicating a more favorable set up with these features for our area is euro ensemble mean, Icon, para GFS, and probably extrapolated NAM. I like where we are right now, particularly BGM, SYR and points SE. 00z Parallel GFS "feels" like a nice candidate for verification. That's a classic coastal low snowstorm distribution with banding along the I-88 corridor accounting for the heavier snowfall axis. Agree on the mid/UL point you made. The track of the low seems like it will be "good enough" as generally modelled currently but the other story is as you said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Another not there is cold air here will be more like 15 to 1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: Hey all. IMO, as has been discussed a bit earlier and needs to be emphasized, for much of Upstate NY, the exact track of the slp is less important than the evolution of the mid and upper level features, particularly at the h850 and h700 levels. The models currently indicating a more favorable set up with these features for our area is euro ensemble mean, Icon, para GFS, and probably extrapolated NAM. I like where we are right now, particularly BGM, SYR and points SE. 00z Parallel GFS "feels" like a nice candidate for verification. I love reading your posts! I could see this being a 3 to 6 inch event for many of us on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 BUF should be glad if they see 2 inches outta this. I agree I’d be on watch if I was in SYR, BGM, or ALB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Another not there is cold air here will be more like 15 to 1 ratios Dude, let’s just don’t play those ratio games. It never works out. 10:1 is generous enough with a synoptic storm. How many times has a kuchera map actually worked out? NEVER! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I love reading your posts! I could see this being a 3 to 6 inch event for many of us on here. At this point I would be happy with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 40 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs is horrible. Then again they all been kinda bad. I like nam icon rgem. Will gout out on a limb and call for 2 to 5 across western ny. I'll take the under. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I don't try and go more than 15 to one. Quiet rare with higher than that in synoptic storms. But I think its reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now