96blizz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Then, for Wednesday night there remains some model spread. The GFS is waffling a bit from run to run with how far north the low pressure system and subsequent precip shield will get Wednesday night...the 00z run shifted back south slightly. Meanwhile, the 00z ECMWF and it`s ensemble members actually shifted the low and axis of heavier QPF/Snow a bit further north and west with the 00z run. The 00z CMC remains a compromised between the GFS and ECMWF. All 3 models show a closed 700mb low...but differ on its track. For this forecast used a blend of WPC/ECMWF and GFS then made minor edits. This gave QPF amounts of 0.75 to 1.30 inches across the southern tier and all of NE PA. Still feeling confident that ptype will be exclusively snow for our entire area, with very cold air in place...in fact as we wet bulb out and the steady snow begins, it`s likely temperatures will generally be in the upper 10s to mid-20s through the event. This should get snow to liquid ratios on the order of 14-18:1. Again, confidence is increasing that a swath of heavy snow will impact at least a portion of our forecast area...but exactly where this sets up remains to be seen. It`s still too early to pin down any storm total snow amounts from this potential storm, as it`s about 3.5 days out...but probabilities for 6"+ are increasing across NE PA and the Southern Tier/Catskills of CNY. Meanwhile, a tighter gradient is showing up on the NW edge of the system, with low snow totals noted by the latest guidance along and north of the NY Thruway...of course there is still potential for this storm system to shift further north...or south, which would greatly impact potential snowfall totals. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BGM&issuedby=BGM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GEFS not giving in. The battle of GFS vs. Euro has commenced for another season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 One of them will have to give in eventually unless their both wrong, , which is a definite possibility as the ICON may have been on to something all along with it's Northern extent of the precip field and with it's SLP position but at this point who knows!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Philips Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I got an alert about the winter storm on Climacell app on my phone that would reach up to Ohio. This forum gave me a lot of valuable additional information about it. Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Are the Mets in this office serious? This is the reason I now default to the KBGM office as their discussion's are much more in depth with explanation. When Tom Nizziol left the NWS that office went with him unfortunately and they will never find anyone to replace him!Whoever is writing these discussions hasn't got a clue, seriously though. The storm doesn't strengthen along the SNE coastline it does so across the Mid-Atlantic then scoots out south of the Benchmark. Yeah, I'll never read their discussion's again.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The focus this time period will continue to be upon a storm system crossing the Southeast, and rapidly deepening off the southern New England coastline Wednesday through Thursday. The overall flow is progressive enough to keep this eastward track to the storm, with only its northwest edge brushing by our region. Light snow Wednesday will end through the night as this storm tracks towards New England. Surface high pressure behind this system will bring quiet weather to end the week with a sub freezing airmass Thursday becoming above freezing by Saturday.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 hours ago, 96blizz said: And then there’s the stubborn EPS. Despite no Op runs of any model showing this - enough members must blitz our area for this. Until this changes, I will remain interested. Only issue is that's the control run, basically just a member..The mean at 0z was still 7" at 10-1 for ksyr.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 6z EPS Gotta love the lean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I would say we have about 10 out of 25 decent members here..Most give us at least some snow.. Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Only about 6 out of 25 here.. Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Most of those get the job done here... I'd like to see the GFS revert back to an 18z solution yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 My gut tells me @crossbowftw3 or (if in liberty) @sferic jackpots come Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: My gut tells me @crossbowftw3 or (if in liberty) @sferic jackpots come Thursday Eric's liberty house has 700' or so on me, and yet NYC is still in play. Regardless this still looks part the course and one of us should definitely get the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, crossbowftw3 said: Eric's liberty house has 700' or so on me, and yet NYC is still in play. Regardless this still looks part the course and one of us should definitely get the goods. Don't think elevation will help, I think it comes NW more and you're in the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I agree with the posts above. I think I’m right on the edge in central Otsego county. I could see 6-8 inches at my place, then if you drive 30 minutes southeast there’s over a foot and if you drive 30 minutes northwest there’s an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Don't think elevation will help, I think it comes NW more and you're in the sweet spot Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NAM really digging early fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Hey all. IMO, as has been discussed a bit earlier and needs to be emphasized, for much of Upstate NY, the exact track of the slp is less important than the evolution of the mid and upper level features, particularly at the h850 and h700 levels. The models currently indicating a more favorable set up with these features for our area is euro ensemble mean, Icon, para GFS, and probably extrapolated NAM. I like where we are right now, particularly BGM, SYR and points SE. 00z Parallel GFS "feels" like a nice candidate for verification. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 52 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Only issue is that's the control run, basically just a member..The mean at 0z was still 7" at 10-1 for ksyr.. My apologies. Missed the (c). please note my post was at 5:30AM pre coffee. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: Hey all. IMO, as has been discussed a bit earlier and needs to be emphasized, for much of Upstate NY, the exact track of the slp is less important than the evolution of the mid and upper level features, particularly at the h850 and h700 levels. The models currently indicating a more favorable set up with these features for our area is euro ensemble mean, Icon, para GFS, and probably extrapolated NAM. I like where we are right now, particularly BGM, SYR and points SE. 00z Parallel GFS "feels" like a nice candidate for verification. We can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Maybe we get a whole inch on Monday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 High end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NAM is tucked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM is tucked. HP retreated quite a bit at 84 hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just flipped to some snow here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just flipped to some snow here.. The guys in that KBUF office haven't got a clue, lol! Its already down to 36 here and dropping and they had a high here in early afternoon of 44F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Icon FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Not even close on the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Gfs is horrible. Then again they all been kinda bad. I like nam icon rgem. Will gout out on a limb and call for 2 to 5 across western ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now