TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Lol. Same time post. Technically...I beat you by a minute. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It looks amazing. By far the best looking run for much of Upstate NY. Wish it would come true. I like that little lake effect snow strip right into Toronto. 4-8"? Hell yeah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Icon vs all, I like our odds.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Icon vs all, I like our odds.. And 00Z Nam if extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowstorms said: I like that little lake effect snow strip right into Toronto. 4-8'? Hell yeah. Has there ever been upslope along the Niagara Escarpment from an easterly LES event? I think it might not be angled correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Gfs has trended in icon direction. So has ukie. The issue is the primary low in ohio valley and handling how it degenerates. If you look at icon it clearly shows a elongated area of low pressure from new primary on coast to old low in Ohio that moves ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 ICON has me subzero Saturday morning with that snowpack lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Alot of people have said the moisture is there but no forcing. The models are having a issue with handling the primary low coming out of rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Has there ever been upslope along the Niagara Escarpment from an easterly LES event? I think it might not be angled correctly? That looks almost like a due East wind. The only time the escarpment dries out precip, especially east towards the City, is when winds are out of the SW. In this case, it wouldn't have any impact on Lake Effect in the city. Edit: How much snow have you recorded so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Not saying it will happen like icon but I tend to believe that more than a whiff 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs has trended in icon direction. So has ukie. The issue is the primary low in ohio valley and handling how it degenerates. If you look at icon it clearly shows a elongated area of low pressure from new primary on coast to old low in Ohio that moves ne Good point. Odds of that actually happening are very slim. Usually the area between the two lows gets the screw job, not the max amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: That looks almost like a due East wind. The only time the escarpment dries out precip, especially east towards the City, is when winds are out of the SW. In this case, it wouldn't have any impact on Lake Effect in the city. Edit: How much snow have you recorded so far? 5 or 6 inches. Pathetic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Usually but it happens more than you would think. Especially if you have dueling lows. You get a elongated trough nw of competing new low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: 5 or 6 inches. Pathetic. Lysander is literally south of Lake Ontario, I'm surprised. What's your seasonal average? There's been a few lake effect snow outbreaks off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron and of course, the Cleveland storm recently. I'm shocked you haven't gotten anything respectable yet. Terrible winter. We got lucky with that November storm in Toronto but aside from that, it's been extremely frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro is throwing precip back to PA and the souther tier again it appears. Trough is a little sharper and the LP is placed a bit further north. This is for 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Lysander is literally south of Lake Ontario, I'm surprised. What's your seasonal average? There's been a few lake effect snow outbreaks off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron and of course, the Cleveland storm recently. I'm shocked you haven't gotten anything respectable yet. Terrible winter. We got lucky with that November storm in Toronto but aside from that, it's been extremely frustrating. My location (I've only been here a year and a half) supposedly averages 135ish inches a year. Lots of 3 to 6 inch events are common here. Over recent years, there have been many SW wind lake effect events that have given the goods to the Watertown area and the northern Tug Hill. We need some clippers and synoptic events that give us snowfall from the system and then with the lake influence from behind. This past Thursday was the biggest event so far with 2 inches. (lol) It's been numerous dustings/coatings/and half inchers that have mostly melted by the end of the day they fall on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro did not show the gfs trend south east, and throws snow way back into PA and the southern tier. No let up on confluence as we hoped but not the 12z GFS either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro looks like a very close repeat of last night's 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Its a pretty big shift nw in precip field. Not where we want it but a shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Lysander is literally south of Lake Ontario, I'm surprised. What's your seasonal average? There's been a few lake effect snow outbreaks off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron and of course, the Cleveland storm recently. I'm shocked you haven't gotten anything respectable yet. Terrible winter. We got lucky with that November storm in Toronto but aside from that, it's been extremely frustrating. There has been zero cold air anywhere near Erie/Ontario. Cleveland had a good lake enhanced event, but the only LES event was back on Nov 2nd/3rd. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2020-2021&event=A I believe we finished November at +5.8 (6th warmest of all time) and in December were around +3 for temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Latest GFS keeps any cold enough air for LES out of the area the entire run, Euro has 1 day or so of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Tomorrow nights 00Z run should be much better as the SW responsible for the event will be just entering the PNW and should be much better sampled so we'll see if any real changes occur, if not then congrats NYC--->BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Big Shift like Tim mentioned so theres still hope 12Z 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Latest GFS keeps any cold enough air for LES out of the area the entire run, Euro has 1 day or so of it. Yeah, it's either coolish air or it's rain with warm air surging up through the Ohio Valley into the NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The Cuse is down-sloping big time off the bumps in So. Onondaga Cty & Cortland Cty, lol, as it has warmed to the upper 50's! I'm siting at 46 as the warming comes to a screeching halt somewhere near North Syracuse and cools thereafter, nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: What a surprise...Syracuse skyrockets 7 degrees above what the forecasted high was for today. As soon as the southerly wind kicks in, UP the temp goes... Day in and day out, the temp overachieves here. Must be a combination of old climatology factored into the modeling and that Syracuse is a downsloping mecca plus Urban Heat Island. Yet another day of this place being in the top as the warmest place in New York State. Edit...the temp just went UP another degree at 11 pm...right after I typed that...just to spite me... lol I think it's great. Feels nice and mild! And I'm not trolling you...;) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The Cuse is down-sloping big time off the bumps in So. Onondaga Cty & Cortland Cty, lol, as it has warmed to the upper 50's! I'm siting at 46 as the warming comes to a screeching halt somewhere near North Syracuse and cools thereafter, nuts It's ridiculous. We have had so many times recently where our high for the day has been in the middle of the night as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Latest GFS keeps any cold enough air for LES out of the area the entire run, Euro has 1 day or so of it. The wild swings the models are showing ,especially the GFS is ridiculous. You posted the 18z yesterday showing at the end of its run the PV is almost upon us, the very next run is so opposite that you’d think the program malfunctioned. Models are really struggling right now with the data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Big Shift like Tim mentioned so theres still hope 12Z 00Z And then there’s the stubborn EPS. Despite no Op runs of any model showing this - enough members must blitz our area for this. Until this changes, I will remain interested. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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