wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 HP is the killer.. Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 6:28 PM, CNY-LES FREAK said: The system is still 5 days out Expand Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 6:48 PM, vortmax said: Guys, the vort over the Pac isn't even being sampled yet. Until that happens, this system is still in play... Expand I prefer to have knee jerk reactions that are 100% dependent on the exact last Kuchera map I just saw. ‘It’s on! It’s off! It’s on again! It’s off- screw this winter!’ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Hey, I still have a little snow pile outside my apartment building from this week's 2 inches. A little bit made it through yesterday's normal 55 degrees. This week had a 2 inch snowfall that mostly melted overnight, we had a thick frost another morning, then black ice another morning..and a tiny snowpile outside. Winter has arrived to Upstate Mid Atlantic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Would we be happy if we were in the JP 4-5 days out, hell no! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 EPS better for our area. An eternity to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:03 PM, 96blizz said: EPS better for our area. An eternity to go. Expand The GFS ensembles did somewhat as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:03 PM, 96blizz said: EPS better for our area. An eternity to go. Expand 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 It’s on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Yeah ksyr mean went from 5.1" to 6.7", we wait lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Someone in the Tug is gonna like this for Monday! look at the omega, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:16 PM, rochesterdave said: It’s on Expand Interesting weekend ahead. There will be a limit to how far north the storm will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:21 PM, MJO812 said: Interesting weekend ahead. There will be a limit to how far north the storm will come. Expand Yes if the confluence is modeled correctly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:22 PM, wolfie09 said: Yes if the confluence is modeled correctly.. Expand Agree This is why everyone is still in the game until 2 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:13 PM, 96blizz said: Expand The thing about these ensemble maps is that it looks like a huge area could get decent amounts, when in reality it's more an average amount from so many different possibilities. Basically, a marked cutoff between snow amounts is hard to depict on these maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:24 PM, TugHillMatt said: The thing about these ensemble maps is that it looks like a huge area could get decent amounts, when in reality it's more an average amount from so many different possibilities. Basically, a marked cutoff between snow amounts is hard to depict on these maps. Expand I know this. But it was a great opportunity to post that gif. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:27 PM, wolfie09 said: Expand You could circle half of these and get accumulating snow here - the indies will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 6:50 PM, wolfie09 said: HP is the killer.. Source Expand It’s not even that strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 std of about -1 at the time of the event so blocking is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:24 PM, MJO812 said: Agree This is why everyone is still in the game until 2 days out Expand How many times have we been screwed due to something coming north/warmth in game? If the confluence relaxes just a little bit this comes north in a hurry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I am avoiding every other subforum right now because I know they're all probably rejoicing with the current trends. Maybe I'll be able to go back at the end of the week and experience wailing and gnashing of teeth in between shovels full of snow? Too much to ask? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Even the PNA looks ideal with it staying positive for the next couple weeks On 12/12/2020 at 7:40 PM, Ericjcrash said: How many times have we been screwed due to something coming north/warmth in game? If the confluence relaxes just a little bit this comes north in a hurry. Expand It sure will, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:46 PM, TugHillMatt said: I am avoiding every other subforum right now because I know they're all probably rejoicing with the current trends. Maybe I'll be able to go back at the end of the week and experience wailing and gnashing of teeth in between shovels full of snow? Too much to ask? Expand You just have to know how to play it. I just have fun with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 This is nasty, WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Well at least I'm getting some snow in animal crossing.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Some hope for those grasping. 84 hour NAM suggest a much further NW track. High is 2 MB stronger on GFS GFS at same time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 8:59 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Some hope for those grasping. 84 hour NAM suggest a much further NW track. High is 2 MB stronger on GFS GFS at same time Expand It was weaker with the first wave, that's what we need. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 The NAM also has a very strong NW bias, especially at 3-4 days. It becomes much better at 1-2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 KBUF .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The focus this time period will continue to be upon a storm system crossing the Southeast, and rapidly deepening off the southern New England coastline Wednesday through Thursday. The overall flow is progressive enough to keep this eastward track to the storm, with only its northwest edge brushing by our region. Light snow Wednesday will end through the night as this storm tracks towards New England. Surface high pressure behind this system will bring quiet weather to end the week with a sub freezing airmass Thursday becoming above freezing by Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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