Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6z EPS individuals include a lot of sexy solutions. I like where I'm at honestly, I-95 folks can say confluence till they're blue in the face but we've all seen the NW ticks before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Felt like spring yesterday. 52 and sunny after work, went for a 4 mile run. If we don't get snow that is what I'm hoping for. High was 53 at KBUF, currently at +2.4 for the month of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Navy rule? Lol I try to bring hope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Looks really good for east coasters, only 4 days out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Model consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Doesn't seem like much but this is within 72 hours, every mile matters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I hope the first one works out for the 95 crew and the next one does the same for us. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I hope the first one works out for the 95 crew and the next one does the same for us. I think that's what might end up happening, however with the airmass and high, the latter can come pretty far NW and still end up being a massive hit for NYC while letting us get the goods as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Doesn't seem like much but this is within 72 hours, every mile matters lol Just a half a day faster and that thing is merging with that wave coming from Huron and we all get slammed. All about timing the waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Icon is a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I think that's what might end up happening, however with the airmass and high, the latter can come pretty far NW and still end up being a massive hit for NYC while letting us get the goods as well. Good point. I was thinking the same. I would say the odds of us getting at least SOME snow and white on the ground are increasing. Areal coverage across the NE increasing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: The Icon, to me, seems like a model that does "ok" getting a general idea of track...but is awful with specifics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: The Icon, to me, seems like a model that does "ok" getting a general idea of track...but is awful with specifics. Agreed, but honestly I'd be lying if I said I don't want it to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I think that's what might end up happening, however with the airmass and high, the latter can come pretty far NW and still end up being a massive hit for NYC while letting us get the goods as well. Even here in Sullivan I do get the sneaking feeling this could evolve to give NYC more snow than we will have here. We will have higher ratios here (I'm thinking 15:1 based on the words of Walt Drag), mind you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It’s moving more NW with each run. Our area will see accumulation just how much is the question. We’ve seen this show before and normally the I95 crew is crying in the end 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: It’s moving more NW with each run. Our area will see accumulation just how much is the question. We’ve seen this show before and normally the I95 crew is crying in the end I disagree the 30 year averages in NYC and Boston have gone way up while everywhere else goes down. https://www.spadalawgroup.com/blog/the-past-15-years-have-been-the-snowiest-in-massachusetts-history.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Even here in Sullivan I do get the sneaking feeling this could evolve to give NYC more snow than we will have here. We will have higher ratios here (I'm thinking 15:1 based on the words of Walt Drag), mind you I'd much rather be in Sullivan county. This keeps ticking NW. I've lived the NYC nightmare many times...jackpotted 4 days out only to be pinging or raining watching a crushing on NW webcams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: I'd much rather be in Sullivan county. This keeps ticking NW. I've lived the NYC nightmare many times...jackpotted 4 days out only to be pinging or raining watching a crushing on NW webcams Very good point. Like where I am right now but we are still a day away from having the wave that will become the catalyst for this storm able to be properly sampled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I disagree the 30 year averages in NYC and Boston have gone way up while everywhere else goes down. https://www.spadalawgroup.com/blog/the-past-15-years-have-been-the-snowiest-in-massachusetts-history.cfm Yeah, but it's because of extreme storms. Thursday NYC can get a foot and still go to rain/sleet. I feel like that's how its going to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Very good point. Like where I am right now but we are still a day away from having the wave that will become the catalyst for this storm able to be properly sampled And to this extent my earliest best reasonable guess is a widespread 6-10+ storm...to a point. it'll be in Wednesday out Thursday. The 20"+ runs seem unlikely unless the storm sits and just parks for a time. It'll be cold too, ratios likely 15:1 or thereabout. No concern for mixing with temperatures likely hovering in the mid 20s by day, going to mid teens by night. Better picture of the situation will start happening by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 BuffWeather is just feeling bitter. I don’t blame him. It’s been two years since they’ve had any lake effect snow. Lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: BuffWeather is just feeling bitter. I don’t blame him. It’s been two years since they’ve had any lake effect snow. Lol Posting what the models say is bitter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: And to this extent my earliest best reasonable guess is a widespread 6-10+ storm...to a point. it'll be in Wednesday put Thursday. The 20"+ runs seem unlikely unless the storm sits and just parks for a time. It'll be cold too, ratios likely 15:1 or thereabout. No concern for mixing with temperatures likely hovering in the mid 20s by day, going to mid teens by night. Better picture of the situation will start happening by tomorrow. That's reasonable. It has slowed down a bit though so big totals are on the table 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: That's reasonable. It has slowed down a bit though so big totals are on the table I'd think localized totals approaching 2 feet aren't out of the question...but they'd be exceptions, not the norm. Entirely plausible to get numerous/more widespread reports of one foot+ totals...or at least double digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I disagree the 30 year averages in NYC and Boston have gone way up while everywhere else goes down. https://www.spadalawgroup.com/blog/the-past-15-years-have-been-the-snowiest-in-massachusetts-history.cfm Yeah but last few years have been horrendous lol My in-laws in CNJ have like 7" over the last 2 years..I guess they are due lol 2017 and 2018(monmouth county) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Yeah but last few years have been horrendous lol My in-laws in CNJ have like 7" over the last 2 years..I guess they are do lol Yeah NYC and Boston 30 year AVG is up a little bit especially Bos. They only need 1-2 big storms and it gets them there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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