wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 At the surface(track) the 0z gfs and ecm aren't far apart..At 500 it's a different story lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Still plenty of options on the table.. These are 6z ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: These are 6z ensembles #30 is the one that will end up happening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 8 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Did you say LES Sunday Night?!!! Can't wait, the snow will be moodflakes if anything though. We actually match up well against the Steelers, I think we take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 19 minutes ago, tim123 said: Thing that bodes well I believe is the trough that extends back into upstate. Historicaly under forcasted I like this observation. There’s always an inverted trough that hangs back allowing moisture to be sent further west than depicted. I think because there are 2 LP one will hang by close enough to create this scenario 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: #30 is the one that will end up happening. I like #35! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 25 minutes ago, tim123 said: Thing that bodes well I believe is the trough that extends back into upstate. Historicaly under forcasted This is the feature I’ve been watching too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 That's a pretty strong -AO with very little arctic air in the lower 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 The European has a tendency to be to "grabby" lol Something to obviously watch.. Actually the 12z gfs has outperformed the 0z euro at 3,5 and 7 days, will be interesting to see what it shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 If the european is wrong that would be 2 events in a row showing feet of snow 3-7 days before an event, you hardly ever see the GFS giving us bombs anymore lol(within a week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: If the european is wrong that would be 2 events in a row showing feet of snow 3-7 days before an event, you hardly ever see the GFS giving us bombs anymore lol(within a week) GFS has been extremely stingy lately. 384 run and no snow is something I have never seen. I miss the 40-50" long range clown maps, even if they never happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 I learned something this year. -EPO or bust. The Pacific controls the cold air. Even with a good arctic and a good Atlantic, temps are still marginal at best for snow in early season events. Once you get to Jan/Feb a good Atlantic/Arctic can make it happen, but Nov/Dec/March you need a -EPO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 The cold is in Russia Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 12/11/2020 at 02:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount 1 Ojmjakon (Russia) 24688 -67.2°F 2 Nera (Russia) 24585 -63.4°F 3 Iema (Russia) 24477 -63.2°F 4 Verhojansk (Russia) 24266 -63.2°F 5 Agayakan (Russia) 24684 -62.5°F 6 Yurty (Russia) 24588 -61.6°F 7 Batagaj (Russia) 24263 -61.2°F 8 Delyankir (Russia) 24691 -61.1°F 9 Ekyuchchyu (Russia) 24361 -60.9°F 10 Bestyahskaya Zveroferma (Russia) 24449 -56.9°F 11 Strelka Chunya (Russia) 24802 -56.9°F 12 Hatyryk-Homo (Russia) 24643 -56.6°F 13 Habardino (Russia) 24525 -56.2°F 14 Berdigestyah (Russia) 24758 -55.8°F 15 Ust'- Moma (Russia) 24382 -55.7°F Script courtesy of Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 52 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Still plenty of options on the table.. These are 6z ensembles Literally all over the place. Not unexpected when just inside of fantasy land. Pretty obvious there will be a storm but where? Gonna be a long week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: If the european is wrong that would be 2 events in a row showing feet of snow 3-7 days before an event, you hardly ever see the GFS giving us bombs anymore lol(within a week) What happened to the king? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's a pretty strong -AO with very little arctic air in the lower 48 Lmao that was the request I had for you yesterday! I also can’t believe all the indices are PERFECT right now and we’re pitching a shutout! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I learned something this year. -EPO or bust. The Pacific controls the cold air. Even with a good arctic and a good Atlantic, temps are still marginal at best for snow in early season events. Once you get to Jan/Feb a good Atlantic/Arctic can make it happen, but Nov/Dec/March you need a -EPO. Yeah, I’ve been thinking on that. It’s the driving pacific jet that keeps screwing us. Positive EPO is killing us. All the cold is bisectected and bottled up in the north of Canada. We need some sustainable buckles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 We can now calculate the new 30 year averages with the decade just ending Buffalo 1990s- 90.1" 2000s- 105.8" 2010s- 88.16" New 30 year average- 94.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We can now calculate the new 30 year averages with the decade just ending Buffalo 1990s- 90.1" 2000s- 105.8" 2010s- 88.16" New 30 year average- 94.7" What was it for 80-2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: What was it for 80-2010? 40s- 78" (can't really count as measurements were along lakeshore) 50s- 95.9" 60s- 87.1" 70s- 107.2" 80s- 86.51 1980-2010 30 year average- 94.1" Buffalos highest 30 year average was 50s-70s at 96.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Whats is it for rochester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 My 7 year average here is 129". Mainly thanks to 2013-2015 winters. Also doesn't include the 2011-2013 garbage winters. It's probably around 110-115" average here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 This next storm is pretty intriguing. We will definitely know which model had it right as they are so far apart. GFS still a coastal hugger and really consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: The cold is in Russia Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 12/11/2020 at 02:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount 1 Ojmjakon (Russia) 24688 -67.2°F 2 Nera (Russia) 24585 -63.4°F 3 Iema (Russia) 24477 -63.2°F 4 Verhojansk (Russia) 24266 -63.2°F 5 Agayakan (Russia) 24684 -62.5°F 6 Yurty (Russia) 24588 -61.6°F 7 Batagaj (Russia) 24263 -61.2°F 8 Delyankir (Russia) 24691 -61.1°F 9 Ekyuchchyu (Russia) 24361 -60.9°F 10 Bestyahskaya Zveroferma (Russia) 24449 -56.9°F 11 Strelka Chunya (Russia) 24802 -56.9°F 12 Hatyryk-Homo (Russia) 24643 -56.6°F 13 Habardino (Russia) 24525 -56.2°F 14 Berdigestyah (Russia) 24758 -55.8°F 15 Ust'- Moma (Russia) 24382 -55.7°F Script courtesy of Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet Yup. There is some cold air on our side, but the real artic air is on the other side of the pole. In fact it’s off the charts cold in central Russia. Just gotta get it to dislodge somehow... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yup. There is some cold air on our side, but the real artic air is on the other side of the pole. In fact it’s off the charts cold in central Russia. Just gotta get it to dislodge somehow... I wish Trump would tell Putin to stop hogging all the cold air. He needs to issue some tariffs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Not sure it will make much of a difference at the surface but Canadian took a jump towards the european at 500 .. Still doesn't make it up here verbatim.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Canadian is actually more "tucked" then the euro and stronger.. Totally different precipitation field though..The dying primary is also farther north on the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Euro is also depicting a much stronger pressure grading as well with very strong easterly flow throwing much more moisture back on its NWern flank, interesting. Like many have mentioned theres also a strong inverted trough that extends back into So. Ontario and the European us also very consistent so its a nice fight and well see very soon!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 The primary usually hangs on longer and grabs more. Historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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