Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Showers/ Squalls Monday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: THE STORM HAS FIZZLED: As predicted, a CME (pictured below) hit Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of Dec. 10th (1:30 UT), but the impact did not cause a geomagnetic storm. Mid-latitude auroras are not likely tonight. Boo! I've never used this website, is it accurate? It’s a very well run site. I’ve probably looked at it once a day for well over a decade. In fact I’ve actually subscribed to their Spaceweather phone service for probably 15 years now. It’s kind of stupid during solar minimum but that’s also the time when storms are the least likely and might be missed. (They will notify you 24/7 if northern lights are visible at your location) Plus they give you a lot of other updates. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, DeltaT13 said: It’s a very well run site. I’ve probably looked at it once a day for well over a decade. In fact I’ve actually subscribed to their Spaceweather phone service for probably 15 years now. It’s kind of stupid during solar minimum but that’s also the time when storms are the least likely and might be missed. (They will notify you 24/7 if northern lights are visible at your location) Plus they give you a lot of other updates. Just wanted to make sure, my buddy just called me we were going to head out to boonies to try to see them tonight. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 ICON looks like a good hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Lock in the clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Double barrel low on the Icon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Double barrel low on the Icon.. Miller B that brings the goods(at least to us IN CNY/ENY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 At least this system looks to be plenty cold with the strong HP to our north.. Just need to get some decent precipitation lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Breaks in the clouds this evening are allowing for some better viewing of the night sky. Unfortunately the geomagnetic storm expected tonight appears to be weaker than originally expected, and the "Northern Lights" don't appear to be as likely tonight for the area. For more details, visit: swpc.noaa.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 RGEM has a decent little LES band Sunday night in Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Yeah you beat me to it lol No surprise since the global has been onboard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 GFS is a pancake. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 4 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Ok... Who knows clouds? Would this be a “Fallstreak Hole”? Looks like a fallstreak hole to me. There even appears to be virga falling out of that hole in the mid level cloud deck where the supercooled water droplets froze and precipitated. https://www.weather.gov/arx/why_fallstreaks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Canadian Pancakes served tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Ok... Who knows clouds? Would this be a “Fallstreak Hole”? I'll tell you what that is...its the 00Z GFS cancelling December. What a disaster if that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 GFS is just horrific to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM has a decent little LES band Sunday night in Monday. Did you say LES Sunday Night?!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said: At least the Euro stands tall...6z GFS looks better thru 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 6z GFS was looking better but ends up about the same as 0z. Hits a wall and scoots east. I'd imagine some good ensemble members are on deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 59 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 6z GFS was looking better but ends up about the same as 0z. Hits a wall and scoots east. I'd imagine some good ensemble members are on deck. Seriously WNY is hexed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Heavy frost on the cars this morning. Woo-wee! Looks like winter...I have declined to discussing frost depths as if I'm a poster on the Mid-Atlantic subforum. My frost is thicker than yours! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 33 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Heavy frost on the cars this morning. Woo-wee! Looks like winter...I have declined to discussing frost depths as if I'm a poster on the Mid-Atlantic subforum. My frost is thicker than yours! I'm actually in Queens for work yesterday and today, heaviest frost I've seen down here in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Still looks good today. Don't think anyone would complain with a widespread 6-12 storm this early in the Winter. However I still raise the concern about south trends and this becoming a 95 special, if not a complete miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 00Z EC is good news for most of us. I'd much rather have that model in our camp then the GFS a week out...we'll see if the usual model tendencies play out this time. The 00Z GFS Frog Marches us into XMas with almost nothing but rain and misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 European control looks good as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 The crazy thing about the european is it's track lol It goes NE from here, not an ideal track under normal circumstances lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Thing that bodes well I believe is the trough that extends back into upstate. Historicaly under forcasted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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