Thinksnow18 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Well it is a week away...plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Small differences. Unimportant this far out. I’m just glad it’s still there and not a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 ICON is weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 A little lake response Mon/Tues on the Canadian and icon, gfs not as an enthused.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 CMC is a complete whiff with next week system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: CMC is a complete whiff with next week system.. Coincides with GEFS, if anything that one is going further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just an update that this potential is now gone. The CME hit and did not spark any activity. 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Clearing skies tonight will enable MOST of the area to be able to view the "Northern Lights". The best viewing will likely be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region after midnight where the least amount of cloud cover is expected. Get away from artificial sources of light and allow your eyes some time to adjust to the darkness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Coincides with GEFS, if anything that one is going further east. We'll see. NYC born and raised I've been burned countless times by mid range guidance showing a big hit in the mid range only to see it continually trend NW within 100 hours. Way too far out to say if it's for CNY, NYC, or the fish. WNY probably out of the game but there's plenty of time to see it play out. We'll know after the preceding storm is more ironed out as that's been all over the place on guidance as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 What a boring pattern around here for most of Upstate for mid December. This should be prime time and we can’t seem to catch a break. Went to Ellicottville today and hiked to Spruce Lake up at 2330 feet. About 6” of dense pack there. Felt great to see a real snowpack although even down at the base of HV around 1600 feet there was only patches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Let’s see what happens after the midweek coastal. Not time to throw in the towel on December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 26 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Just an update that this potential is now gone. The CME hit and did not spark any activity. This 100% confirmed? Was going to drive out somewhere to watch tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Ukmet at the end of it's run fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 The time period between December 19th and 26th is a lock. Why? Because I am going to Tennessee. The one and only snowstorm of the month will happen in that time frame. Lock. it. in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Ain't happening wolf that is 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 48 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Just an update that this potential is now gone. The CME hit and did not spark any activity. Wow, even the Sun can't produce for us, lol! I was definitely looking forward to this Oh well, what a horrific year! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Says 12z? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Says 12z? Lol Odd, GEFS are way SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Ain't happening wolf that is 6Z Its 12Z not 6Z but odd though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This 100% confirmed? Was going to drive out somewhere to watch tonight. Yeah, its interesting. The best time to view it would have been overnight last night (this morning). The media and most people misunderstood the data from NASA and spaceweather.com. The chance has already come and gone. It's a shame that most people will be disappointed tonight without the proper info. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 a few actually show nada, so the spread is still quite large from this time frame so we wait to see the trends, if it happens at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Yeah, its interesting. The best time to view it would have been overnight last night (this morning). The media and most people misunderstood the data from NASA and spaceweather.com. The chance has already come and gone. It's a shame that most people will be disappointed tonight without the proper info. How far were you from that Explosion last night in Gates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: How far were you from that Explosion last night in Gates? About 2 miles. I was still at work but drove over afterwards. It was insane, the house (remnants) was still fully ablaze a half hour after it blew. I guess people in my neighborhood felt their houses shake. I can't believe how far you could feel it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 What's the ideal setup/track for a big synoptic event between Syracuse and Buffalo? In New England we talk about the 40/70 benchmark. What's the rule of thumb here? Seems like a track from Pittsburgh to Albany would pay off for everyone pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: What's the ideal setup/track for a big synoptic event between Syracuse and Buffalo? In New England we talk about the 40/70 benchmark. What's the rule of thumb here? Seems like a track from Pittsburgh to Albany would pay off for everyone pretty well. I think you've got it figured out for the most part. I like the lows that come out of the Ohio valley and move from Columbus to Scranton (Which is about the same as Pitt to Albany) with a ton of overrunning and then backend lake effect on a N wind for the South shore. There are some pretty huge events that have taken that track. Otherwise, we want a NorEaster that runs right up the Hudson Valley or even a touch further West. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Preceding storm is quite a bit more amped...we'll see how it effects our potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I think you've got it figured out for the most part. I like the lows that come out of the Ohio valley and move from Columbus to Scranton with a ton of overrunning and then backend lake effect on a N wind for the South shore. There are some pretty huge events that have taken that track. Otherwise, we want a NorEaster that runs right up the Hudson Valley or even a touch further West. Makes sense -- there are multiple ways to skin this cat, with either a more west/east track through central PA or a south/north track through Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I might really really like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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